Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 12/17 Analysis
Best Bet: DRAFT YEAR (1st)
Spot Play: NORTHERN LAUREN (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,7/5,6,7/2,7/1,3,7/4,5,7 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,7/4,5,7/4,5/2,6,7 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,6,7/6,8/2,4,8/2,6 = $36
MEET STATS: 80 - 240 / $446.50 (-$33.50)
BEST BETS: 9 - 21 / $34.10 (-$7.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 23 / $50.90 (+$4.90)
Race 1
(7) DRAFT YEAR seems to be approaching his best form now and he stands a good chance to beat these if he is close enough at the 3/4. (1) DONATO LANE is worth including in the Pick 5 on the barn change alone; using. (3) BOSSTON GLIDE was sharp beating easier, but he may find the top two tough to beat here; using underneath. (5) EMBOLDEN was two lengths behind the choice last time and he projects to get a similar trip here, but he can get on the board vs. these.
Race 2
(5) FLY BEYOND was ahead of the winner a couple of strides past the wire last week, he was moving that fast. But his move was too late, and he can turn the tables here leaving from a better post where he can lay closer. (6) VEYRON is the one the choice will likely be trying to pass again nearing the wire and he's on my Pick 5 ticket. (7) WHAT CHAPTER trotted a 27 1/5 third 1/4 which left him a bit short for the drive. There is little between the top three here and he is another who can win if he gets the best trip. (3) NOT SO COOL drops and he will take some action here, but I prefer using him underneath in this spot.
Race 3
(2) NORTHERN LAUREN had an okay race at Flamboro, now she makes her second start off the claim for Auciello here and gets the stable's first-call driver; slight nod. (7) NOMATTERWHEN is popular at the claim box because she tries hard every week; using. (3) WARAWEE SPEEDY comes off a nice win where she was parked forever, but these are tougher; small share predicted. (8) LO HOLD A MOONBEAM can close late for another small slice.
Race 4
This is by far the weaker division of this stakes series and McNair may impose his will and send (1) BEACHIN LINDY right down the road. (3) SO MUCH BETTOR is in a better spot here and he's one that I'll use in multi-race bets. (7) ROCKY J SQUIRREL is capable of better and he would be very dangerous if he landed in the choice's pocket off the gate. (6) BIT OF LUCK is better than he has been showing and if he wakes up, he can land in the Super.
Race 5
(5) WINDSONG OLYMPIA moves into the conditioned ranks in her second start off the claim, but this isn't the toughest field and she may be up to it. (7) KAYMAR CHROME appears to be facing easier here following a decent first-over try last time. An improved trip should yield a better result. (4) IVESEENTHEFUTURE was nailed right on the money by the choice last time and she's another in with a puncher's chance here. (9) PEZ DISPENSER can close late to take another small piece of this purse.
Race 6
(5) EX HANOVER has already beaten non-winners of eight at Yonkers and it's almost a certainty she won't go off chalk in this non-winners of four tilt. She gets my nod over the razor-sharp (4) HEY LIVVY who will be the one to catch again, but the choice should offer more value relative to each's chances of winning the race. (1) SHES GOT PIZAZZ can tag along sitting a good following trip and hang around for a share. (3) STORMONT CHARLOTTE is another who should be in the picture at the wire, using on the bottom.
Race 7
This is a great race with several of the best colts in this series knocking heads. (6) PHANTOM SEELSTER impressed me taking a new life's mark last week despite having a 24-day gap between starts. I'll stick with him. (7) LARRYS PETROCK could get the best trip with a few hard leavers signed on and I'll use him in the Pick 4's. (2) LEGAL POWER was game and stubborn in defeat to the choice last time and he's hard to leave out. (1) R BAZINGGA is another sharp horse to consider here although I prefer using him underneath.
Race 8
(8) DAYLON MAGICIAN took a shuffle then stormed home in 28-flat. He can beat these with a better trip. (6) WILD AND CRAZY GUY shows one race on his card with McNair driving and it was a blowout win two start back. Enough said; using. (3) STREAMSONG is in solid form and he can pass many of these late to share. (1) ODDS ON AMETHYST is unpredictable, but his best race puts him right there vs. these.
Race 9
(7) BUZZ put in a solid effort against the best trotters on the grounds last week and he should be tough vs. these on the class drop. (4) ON A SUNNY DAY drops out of the same race and she should be much closer here. (2) HEAD TURNING JAG races better for Henry who returns here, and he could add some value to the late Pick 4. (1) EXEMPLAR is always closing in the lane it seems and he can pass some of these to take a slice.
Race 10
(6) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN had a race over the track and he should improve here off that effort; top call. (2) LONE WOLF TERROR will likely be a big chalk here shipping in for trainer Auciello and dropping down. He's a Pick 4 must-use for me. (7) TWILITE ZONE is worth a look for the exotics coming off a sharp win at Flamboro. (3) TOP DESIRE moves into Moreau's barn, so he's hard to leave out of the Super in this spot. (1) EVERY GIRLS DESIRE rarely misses a check and he should sit a decent trip here.