Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 12/10 Analysis
Best Bet: P L JILL (5th)
Spot Play: REAL SURREAL (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,5,6/3,4,8/1,4,9/1,2,7,9/4 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,7,9/4/2,5,6/1,2,5 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,5/6,8/5,7,8/4,7,9 = $54
MEET STATS: 71 - 200 / $393.30 (-$6.70)
BEST BETS: 9 - 18 / $34.10 (-$1.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 19 / $39.10 (+$1.10)
Race 1
(5) HEMI SEELSTER is undoubtedly the class of the field and his November 29th qualifier should have him ready for a sharp try here. (2) ST JAMES GATE showed some life late in the mile last week and he could produce an even better try here, or fizzle. He's a bit of an in-and-outer, but I like him here. (6) WILLYORWONTHE has a great record with 14 exacta finishes this year and this is a good spot for him; using. (1) PARKHILL NONSTOP should track the leaders and take at least a small share.
Race 2
(8) COSETTE raced tough first up and was game right to the wire with the 1 to 2 chalk finally passing her very late after using her cover. She can win this if she gets put into play off the gate. (4) SHADOW SPARKS set the pace that night and was stubborn, too, and she should be a speed threat here again. (3) CARDIFF has some back lines that make her a contender here and her lone qualifier was okay; using. (5) DOCS DARLIN is always coming in the lane, but rarely gets there. Expect more of the same here.
Race 3
(4) MISTER BIG TOP needed room early in the stretch last week and when he didn't get any, he seemed to give up. He could improve sharply here if put into the race. (9) DARKEST SECRET faces easier and looms large in the final 1/4. (1) SURF REPORT is a must-use on the barn change alone. (5) SPEEDLING raced well to share in this class last week and he is a good one to use underneath here.
Race 4
(2) FOOT SOLDIER took a new life's mark last week and paid a huge price. I would expect him to send again here and if he does, he may get the same nice trip. (1) PHANTOM SEELSTER was all business in sweeping the Harvest series, but the choice has a recency edge here, so I'll try to beat this gelding. (7) HILLTOP GINGER has some miles that pique my interest, such as a 1:53 2/5 winning effort at Northfield; using. (4) BEACHIN LINDY is all or nothing most nights and the hope here is that he sets the table for the choice again.
Race 5
(4) P L JILL is best here and the hope is that the slop was the main reason for the break in stride last time. I'll go all-or-nothing with her so I can go deeper in other legs of the multi-race bets. (3) DAYLON MAGICIAN went over $2 million in earnings with his most recent win and he seems to fit decently here. He should be a contender. (6) MANOFMANYIMAGES is a winner of two of his last three and obviously not impossible here, but I'll use him underneath. (8) O NARUTAC PERFETTO will be closing late for a slice as he does often.
Race 6
(7) FLY BEYOND faces tougher here, but the way he has been racing recently, he could be up to it; top call. (2) BAUTISTA is an interesting addition to the Baillargeon barn and I'll use him in this Pick 4. (5) WHAT CHAPTER may be better coming off a helmet and his price will be better here; using. (1) VEYRON takes slices more often than wins and he will likely round out the Tri or Super here.
Race 7
(2) LARRYS PETROCK was out-tripped by the pocket sitter who got a golden run up the inside last time. He remains a viable contender. (1) REAL WILLEY couldn't get by a stubborn leader who came back to score in the same game manner again since. He can improve here too in his second start for Moreau; using. (5) SO MUCH BETTOR seemed to have a steering issue on the final turn Thursday night but once he straightened away in the lane, he was closing well. I'll use him if he goes here. (3) LEGAL BETTOR can grab a slice here making his second start back.
Race 8
(6) DANCER HALL gets a mulligan for stopping in the slop. He should bounce back here. (8) MUSICAL RHYTHM looked like his old self beating the choice and he's on my late Pick 4 tickets. (7) B YOYO provided Musical Rhythm's cover that night and he has been racing well and should contend again here. (3) ON A SUNY DAY will pass some of these in the back 1/2 and hit the board.
Race 9
(5) NOMATTERWHEN is rolling and she may attract another claim here as a threepeat looms. (8) DESTINY CRUISE comes off a sharp Flamboro win and she will get put into action early which gives her a shot. (7) DOCS SAUSALITO was just behind the choice and claimed and she could reverse the result with an easier trip. (3) NASTY RUMOUR can close again to take a share.
Race 10
(7) REAL SURREAL faces easier making his third start back; upset special. (9) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN is worth a close look on the barn change alone and he's done well here in the past. (4) TE KAWAU N drops again and will get bet no doubt, but I wouldn't take a short price. (3) JAYDENS PLACE races okay at these levels and is worth using underneath. (5) WESTERN PASSAGE goes for a new barn but he's nowhere close to where he was in 2017; mixed signals.