Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 11/19 Analysis
Best Bet: WANDA BAYAMA (4th)
Spot Play: WHAT CHAPTER (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,5,6/6,7/2,6/5/4,5,6,8 = $9.60
EARLY PICK 4: 5/4,5,6,8/4,9,10/2,3,6,7 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,6,7/2,3,6,7/6/7,8 = $32
MEET STATS: 27 - 90 / $172.20 (-$7.80)
BEST BETS: 3 - 8 / $14.50 (-$1.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 9 / $15.10 (-$2.90)
Race 1
(5) IL SOGNO DREAM hasn't been heard from racing from post 10, but he gets to take a big class plunge here, gets a better post and he gets McNair back; top call at a likely short price. (6) O NARUTAC PERFETTO had a good comeback race and if anyone is going to chase the choice down late, it's probably him. (1) P L JILL goes to noted trotter trainer Baillargeon here in hopes of curing her gait issues. There's no question she can compete with these when she stays flat. (2) EXEMPLAR is a good one to use underneath. Notice he has rounded out the tri in more than 1/4 of his races this year.
Race 2
(7) WINDSONG OLYMPIA exploded for her maiden victory last week. This isn't a tough step up; call to repeat. (6) CATCH AN ACE was a sharp winner on the same night leaving then re-rallying. She should be tough right back, too. (3) DOCS DARLIN is right there every week, but she can hang approaching the wire. I'll try to beat her. (9) SAND ARTIST is going well and even starting from out there she should get a piece.
Race 3
(2) ODDS ON AMETHYST recaptured some of his old form last week and if he has righted his ship, he could go on a roll just like he did in 2017. He can handle these. (6) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO was no match for the choice, but he's hit his best stride too, and he is a contender here. (3) ST JAMES GATE is capable of a better start moving inside and he can hit the ticket at a price. (8) APRIL ROSE quietly earns $100K every year and her barn has been hot lately. There are worse longshots you could take a flyer on.
Race 4
(5) WANDA BAYAMA takes a big class plunge here; no excuses vs. these. (8) NOMATTERWHEN got hung out forever when claimed but she remains a viable contender. (6) LO HOLD A MOONBEAM shares almost every start and she should be a price here; using underneath. (1) NASTY RUMOUR is another who can close late to land on the edges for a share.
Race 5
(5) JAYDENS PLACE produced a big speed try from a worst post and only tired late last week. That race could signal that he's ready for a top effort. (8) SHADOW OF LINDY was rolling late and moving in a couple of posts here he could get sent for better position at the start; using. (6) SMARTER YET drops back to a level where he can contend, and he could still be a price here; using. (4) DON MCWHITE has 16 wins the past two years and many come out of nowhere; beware.
Race 6
(4) THEE DESPERADO should get put into play here racing against easier and the other class droppers are saddled with the worst posts; slight nod. (9) MANOFMANYIMAGES is stuck on one win this year, but he should also appreciate this easier spot; using. (10) WILD AND CRAZY GUY showed nothing from this post last time but dropping in class may lead to a different strategy here. I'll throw him in the Pick 4. (1) PARKHILL NONSTOP finishes 3rd or 4th more often than anywhere else; using underneath.
Race 7
(6) EUCHRED had a good speed tightener from post 10 in his first start in a month after shipping west. He moves from the worst post to one of the best ones; top call. (7) PAULY WALLY was picked off late after pressing strong splits while uncovered. He's a top contender here again. (3) HOMEY JOE was swallowed up by the winner who rode his back around the last turn but that was a good effort and he is a Pick 4 must-use for me. (2) REBEL VOYAGER is a win machine who is sharp and dangerous. This is a tough race.
Race 8
(6) MUSICAL RHYTHM was flying down the lane last week, but the winner had slipped away already. He is approaching his best form now which would make him dangerous in any class. (2) CUE HALL is an obvious contender dropping from the top class and drawing a good post. (7) FREE WILLY HANOVER is in tremendous form and he also drops from the Preferred and can win this with the right trip. (3) B YOYO steps up off a sharp win but even he can't be discounted in this contentious dash.
Race 9
(6) WHAT CHAPTER was confidently-driven to a measured win last week which may help his price a bit as he looks to double up. (7) CASCADA has some nice Mohawk wins on his card from this summer and he will be a threat if he's ready. (1) CHEATALOTPOV is right there every week and he should hit the ticket again. (2) FLY BEYOND provided good cover for the choice last week and he's another to consider here.
Race 10
(8) JANGONE gets top call by default with her last race being two seconds fastest in the field, but I wouldn't take a short price from out there. (7) ADVERSITY can be much closer here getting away from post 10; using. (3) HONOR ABOVE ALL can leave for position and get a good following trip here to hit the board. (4) LADY CATERINA will likely be first off the gate and she too figures to hang around for a slice. (1) ROSE RUN SPEEDSTER showed some improvement last time which could signal a top effort is coming soon; using underneath here, though.