Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 11/12 Analysis
Best Bet: PAULY WALLY (7th)
Spot Play: HOMEY JOE (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 8/2,5/5,6,7/1,3,5/3,5,10 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5/3,5,10/1,2,8/5 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 5/3,7/3,4,5/3,4,8 = $18
MEET STATS: 15 - 50 / $92.50 (-$7.50)
BEST BETS: 3 - 5 / $14.50 (+$4.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 5 / $11.10 (+$1.10)
Race 1
(8) NOMATTERWHEN was a strong winner when claimed and she beat a few of these in the process; call to repeat. (7) CHICKIE LOVE raced better last time and she took her life's mark at this track earlier this year; consider for exotics. (3) ANDERSON SEELSTER was no match for the choice last time, but she's an exotics factor right back in this field. (5) TEN CARAT was third in the same race and she can probably fill out the Super vs. these.
Race 2
(5) SHOTGUN SALLY missed last week due to transportation issues, but she trotted the best race of the series on October 29th and she gets my nod here. (2) MISS ADAM T was an easy winner in the choice's absence last week. This race should come down to these two. (6) GRADABRA is stuck on one win in 26 tries, but her last two starts were very good and if there is going to be an upset, it will likely come from her. (4) POWER AND GRACE is a great one to use underneath. She's sure gaited and rarely misses the top four.
Race 3
(6) DANCER HALL was good in his first start back, but the winner was even better. I'll take him to beat (5) DUNBAR HALL this time mainly because both are very good in this class, but neither has dominated so the result may flip flop here. (7) DREAM TOGETHER is classy enough to beat both if she can stay flat. This could be a very good race. (4) FREE WILLY HANOVER is in tremendous form and he can take another small share here.
Race 4
(5) BRICKMAN raced tough on the rim again last week, but the winner got the better trip. I'll stick with him here. (1) LATE NIGHT tripped out to beat the choice, but he's improved racing out of the new barn and he is on my multi-race tickets here. (3) SHOE SHINE gets a better post making his third start for Moreau and sharp improvement wouldn't shock here. (6) BIG PETES STYLE finishes fourth frequently and he's a good one to use underneath.
Race 5
This stakes series final has many chances and I'll take a big swing with (10) SHADOW WORLD who wasn't far back last week when starting from this post and she's sure to be a price again. (5) MISS ROCKADALI has impressed racing up front winning two preliminary legs but she's sure to face more heat here. (3) D GS SHADOWELL is also undefeated in the series and she took a new life's mark last week. She's hard to leave out at this point. (4) LYONS HEDGEABET is right there every week without winning. She should be on the Super ticket here.
Race 6
(2) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO has caught fire recently and these aren't any tougher; call to repeat. (8) PINK PISTOL returns from the Breeders Crown with a chance in here, but she's far from a lock and may get overbet. (1) EXEMPLAR was solid last week, and he rates a decent chance starting from the inside here. (5) BUZZ was also better last week, and he may get sent here which would give him an upset chance.
Race 7
(5) PAULY WALLY lays over these when he's right and judging by his sharp return win at Flamboro all appears to be okay with him; top call. (1) IM NOT BAD can't get parked the mile this time starting from the pylons and he has an outside shot with a decent trip. (10) EUCHRED has won 23 of his last 56 starts so he's hard to toss, even from out there. (4) LITTLEBITASWAGGER can go better here facing easier and he should hit the ticket.
Race 8
(3) TIKI TAKA steps up off the Moreau claim but he's sharp as can be and he should take beating here despite the class rise. (7) O NARUTAC PERFETTO is an obvious fit at this level and he will be coming late. (6) TOUCHDOWN AS drops, and he should get put into play this time; using underneath. (5) PARKHILL NONSTOP is a great one to use in the bottom rungs of Tri and Super bets.
Race 9
(3) B YOYO should be tough here plunging from the top-class level; top call. (5) MUSICAL RHYTHM got untracked and he's quite capable of beating these types when he's at or close to his best. (4) MARQUIS VOLO is racing great of late and he is the third one that you should use in this Pick 4. (2) VEYRON is another that is going well, but I will tab him for a minor award vs. these.
Race 10
(8) HOMEY JOE was setting up a good late move last week, but he was way too far back to have any impact on the leaders. If he gets started earlier here, he can win this. (4) BURNING MIDNIGHT is another who can be right there vs. these if he can get close to the leaders by the 3/4 pole. (3) CARTOON DADDY had some decent form racing down east and he might crash the exotics here. (10) SHADOW OF LINDY has come back to form in his past two starts, but a smaller share is likely his ceiling starting from the 10-hole here. (2) E L WILD SPIRIT can round out the Super or High-5 passing some horses late.