Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 10/7 Analysis

Meet Stats – 319 – 898 / $1,610.80 (-$133.20)
Best Bets – 53 - 87 / $155,20 (-$18.80)
Spot Plays – 27– 87 / $132.20 (- $41.80)
Best Bet – ANGERS BAYAMA (7TH)
Spot Play – WHAT A RUSH (5TH)
Pick 5 – 2,3,7,9/2,3,4,5,6/7,9/2,4,9/5 = $24
Early Pick 4 – 2,4,9/5/2,3,6,10/7 = $12
Late Pick 4 – 7/1,6,8/1,2,4,7/2,6 = $24
Race 1 – 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(2) BIRTHDAY MAGIC has raced well for Byron in two straight starts and she comes back in the same class with a good chance to win two in a row; top call. (3) CLOTHIER HANOVER beat easier at Flamboro Downs, but he faced tougher for a few weeks before that race; starting. (9) P L MATT gets off the rail which is likely better for him considering his gait issues. He has the speed to beat these if he stays flat and gets a decent trip. (7) SHOTGUN PREACHER closes well every race and he’s not out of this contentious opener.
Race 2 – 2 and 3YO Fillies NW1 or $9,500LT
(3) LYONS TILT HANOVER lands in an easier spot here and Hudon should put her into this race early; slight nod. (4) SHEBESAILIN had a race over the track and comes back in six days. She should improve here. (2) HALLSGLENSMAVIS had an okay debut at Kawartha for a trainer known for bringing them along slowly; price look with Filion driving. (5) BUTTERFLY KISSES is likely heading to the front leaving the gate and it’s hard to leave Henry out driving one with gate speed.
Race 3 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000
(9) MISTER MAGIC is priced to win here after taking a victory at the bottom conditioned class; call to repeat. (7) VERO AMORE BI is always dangerous, but he has finished 2nd in four of his last five starts so I wouldn’t take a short win price. (8) CAVIARS TRIUMPH has raced well in each start for The Stable and he’s worth a look for the exotics here. (2) EXPLOSIVE JET is a good one to use in the 3-4 slots in the Tri and Super.
Race 4 – CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000 - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(4) GO RRRILLA gets the nod here moving into a stable that has been hot lately. (2) J J MYSTIC STORM has a similar profile going for a trainer that can move one up immediately; using. (9) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER is as good as he gets right now and its hard to leave him off multi-race tickets in a race full of question marks. (5) CASIMIR LOW GEAR beat easier twice in a row in Sarnia, but he’s won here before and he will be in the mix vs. these.
Race 5 – NW $6,700 L5 or $13,500 L9 AE OPT CLM $20,000
(5) WHAT A RUSH has been chasing tougher and closing in each race but falling short. His late kick should be more potent at this level. (1) ODDS ON AMETHYST is going to pass them all one of these times but he also gets into traffic trying to make his move; your call. (6) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO came from the clouds last time in an amateur drivers race. He could be a threat here despite moving up in class. (3) ZEUS LIGHTNING steps back up off a sharp win and he retains Roy. He is a threat here, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.
Race 6 – NW $10,000 L5 or $22,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(3) ABSOLUT SEELSTER has amassed a great record racing at the ‘B’ tracks this year and he picks up Filion here in a winnable spot; top call. (10) BUZZ is in top form now and he should be a big threat despite starting from post 10. (6) SHES GOT PIZAZZ has had the misfortune of facing Hey Livvy twice in a row when Livvy was at her best. She has a better shot here. (2) MR CONTESTANT will be closing late again; consider for the bottom of the exotics.
Race 7 –4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000– Pick 4
(7) ANGERS BAYAMA seems to be racing at a different level than his rivals here and he should be tough to beat at a short price. (5) MACHDAVID’s last start is better than it looks as he was held up pinned to the inside for a long time. He can complete this Exacta. (5) APEX SEELSTER raced well in a very fast race last time but he likely faces a similar challenge with the choice here; using on the bottom. (3) MOHAWK SEELSTER has raced okay since his return, but he figures to take a smaller share in this spot.
Race 8 – NW $26,500 L5 or $150,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000 AE: Mares
(8) DREAM TOGETHER drops to a logical spot to take her first win of 2019 and McClure should be sending her; top call. (6) RUN DIRECTOR was never in real danger last week despite winning by a neck. He dug in gamely that night and he is the main danger here. (1) ROYAL WITCH is in great form and starting from the inside she should get a good piece of this. (4) B YOYO is taking small shares frequently these days. I expect more of the same here.
Race 9 – 5YO and Younger NW3 or $56,000 LT
(2) HERVEY HANOVER comes off a solid try against a leader that wasn’t relenting, and he should handle these. (7) LEGION SEELSTER was just behind the choice in that race and he suffered his first loss then. He is the obvious danger. (1) VELOCITY POPROCKS is worth a Pick 4 look adding Lasix. (4) FIXED IDEA is always closing but he is often in races where the late pace is swift; use underneath.
Race 10 – NW $15,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 or $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $40,000
(2) HEY LIVVY is obviously the fastest in this race. The question with her – as always – is: will she trot the entire mile? (6) HIGHLAND TOP HILL has been close to the choice in two straight and she is the most likely benefactor should the choice not behave. (8) O NARUTAC PERFETTO fits well in this class and he should come on late to take a share. (3) R FIRST CLASS can make it into the Super if he gets a better trip here. (1) BIG RICH should get position early which puts him in the hunt for at least a share here.