Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 10/21 Analysis

Meet Stats – 350 – 986 / $1,790.60 (-$129.50)
Best Bets – 60 - 95 / $176.50 (-$11.50)
Spot Plays – 30– 95 / $149.80 (- $40.20)
Best Bet – SAULSBROOK RAVEN – (6TH)
Spot Play – BEACH SPORTS – (1ST)
Pick 5 – 3,5,8/1,4/6,8/3,7,8,9/1,2,8 = $28.80
Early Pick 4 – 3,7,8,9/1,2,8/2/2,7 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 2,8/1,7/4,10/4,7,8 = $24
Race 1 – HARVEST SERIES – 2ND LEG - 2YO Fillies - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(8) BEACH SPORTS raced well coming off a break in the first leg of the series. I expect a more aggressive try here. (3) KENDALLS COUSIN was unleashed last week and she responded with a game win. She should be tough right back. (5) BUTTERFLY KISSES raced well for Roy last week and that driver sticks here; using. (4) WIGGLE DELIGHT is a good one to use in the 3-4 slots here.
Race 2 – HARVEST SERIES – 2ND LEG - 2YO Fillies
(4) PRINCESSPARTYPANTS asserted her dominance last week and she is strictly the one to beat here, but there is always the fear that she might break. (1) GODDESS DE VIE was a solid first-up winner herself and she should be the main threat in a race that will offer little in wagering value. (8) SHE MUST BE MAGIC improved last week with a good third-place finish to the choice. She can hit the board again. (9) READY TO DEAL was a distant 4th to the choice. She could spice up the bottom end of the exotics here.
Race 3 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000
(9) DOVUTO HANOVER has missed some time but this is the easiest field he has faced in a while. I’ll give him the nod by default. (6) YOUNG DRUNK PUNK also has raced against tougher recently. He should provide a challenge to the choice here. (5) ROYAL CANVAS is in good form and he can close late to hit the ticket vs. these. (4) WINDSONG NAPOLEON is a good one to use on the bottom of the Super based on his last two starts.
Race 4 – CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000 - **$50K GTD Pick 4 **
(7) THINK AGAIN moves into a barn that can move one up sharply off the claim and I’ll take a swing with this gelding here. (8) FLAHERTY has raced well at big odds in two straight starts and he can be right there again. (3) ARSENAL SEELSTER makes his second start at the bottom claiming level and he moves inside. He should wake up in this spot. (9) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER is in terrific form right now and he is hard to leave out despite drawing the 9-hole.
Race 5 – HARVEST SERIES – 2ND LEG - 2YO Fillies
(1) SUSIES LADY was second best last week behind what may be the top filly in this series. She gets the nod here. (8) HEID took some action at the windows and came on ate for 3rd. A move forward by this filly here would be no surprise. (2) MYBELLA ANGEL also raced well in the opening leg of the series. She is the third filly that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (5) ROYAL PEACH looks next best. Consider using her on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 6 – HARVEST SERIES – 2ND LEG - 2YO Fillies
(2) SAULSBROOK RAVEN was a game leg 1 winner and this assignment looks no tougher; call to repeat. (6) MS BRAMPTON BEAST took on the choice and headed her at one point, but she couldn’t close the deal. She is an Exacta factor again. (5) FAITHFULS NOLA has improving form and she should be in the mix for a share here. (8) BETTER DAYS AHEAD was less than two lengths back at 36 to 1 last week. She could provide some value to the Tri and/or Super.
Race 7 – 4YO and Younger NW 2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT
(2) RED HOT TORCH took a check in the Grassroots final in a decent effort now he faces easier here; slight nod. (7) WHILE YOUR UP is an obvious threat if he can stay trotting, but it’s hard to predict if he can produce a flat mile at this point. (8) WARAWEE ULTRA is 1 for 23, and likely to be closing for a smaller share here. (9) KNOPFLER is another who has had many chances – like most in this field – who is likely to take a smaller share in this spot.
Race 8 – HARVEST SERIES – 2ND LEG - 2YO Fillies
(3) KIT was nailed late last time by a rival that came with one late burst. She will tussle again here with (1) SEX APPEAL. Slight nod to the former. (6) CENTURY GIANNA was closing late in a decent effort and she should be in the mix here again. (5) LADY NATASHA takes shares frequently. Consider using her on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 9 – 4YO and Younger NW 2 or $25,000 LT – Pick 4
(2) PRESTIGE SEELSTER was a bang-up 2nd to a hot colt last time. He should be tough in this spot. (8) MACHPAPERSCISSORS similarly faced a streaking colt last time and finished 2nd. He is a main contender in here. (3) STRATEGIC THINKING can fare better here if he lays closer early; using underneath. (5) EXCALIBER SEELSTER rarely misses the board and he can better this placing if he gets a good trip.
Race 10 – CLM HDCP $18,000 TO $25,000
(7) ALLSTAR SEELSTER produced a lifetime-best effort in his first start in the new barn and he should be tough right back here. (1) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER is too sharp to ignore right now despite moving up in class here. (5) JAYDENS PLACE comes off a sharp effort to a class-dropping winner. He can contend for a slice here. (2) SPEED TO MARKET was decent racing off the shelf. He should be passing some of these in the back 1/2.
Race 11 – NW3000 last 5 starts
This is a race that (10) ST JAMES GATE should win, but he’s hard to single leaving from post 10, so I’ll add (4) HETTIES COMMANDER – a winner in this class last time – to the late Pick 4 ticket. (1) ALEXUS EH should enter contention on the class drop here. (8) PRECIEUSE CC has been racing well for months in Ottawa. Consider for the exotics at a price.
Race 12 – F&M 4YO and Younger NW 2 or $25,000 LT
(4) IM VERY SPECIAL comes back quicker here after a good speed try first time over the track; slight nod. (7) WHITEHAVEN BEACH fell just short in a very good effort. She is a must-use for me in the late Pick 4. (8) PERFECT STORM faced some tough ones last week – the winner was entered in the Breeders Crown. She should be right there vs. these. (6) MACHLIKEANEGYPTIAN’s form has improved of late. She could hit the ticket at a price here. (10) ERIKAS SHADOW will be passing fillies late and she should make it onto the High-5.