Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 10/14 Analysis

Meet Stats – 330 – 940 / $1,682.70 (-$145.40)
Best Bets – 57 - 91 / $168.40 (-$13.60)
Spot Plays – 28– 91 / $137.70 (- $44.30)
Best Bet – MYBELLA ANGEL (3RD)
Spot Play – TOMMI CANU HEAR ME – (1ST)
Pick 5 – 4,5,7/4,5,8/4/2,3,4,5/7,8,9 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 2,3,4,5/7,8,9/1/1,4,6,7 = $48
Late Pick 4 – 2,7,8/2,3/3,5/3,4,6,7 = $48
Race 1 – 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(7) TOMMI CANU HEARME was held up on bad cover until very late last week and once she found clearance in the lane, she was flying late. She can turn the tables on (5) CHICA here if she works out a better trip. The latter was solid in victory and she is the one to beat here likely as the chalk. (4) FRESHETTE HANOVER was right there with the two choices and she is another threat racing from close range. (2) CADENCE SEELSTER – with 11 slices in 15 starts – is a good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 2 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST LEG – Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies NW $30,000 in 2019
(4) SAULSBROOK RAVEN has recent Grand Circuit lines on her card and she should improve sharply facing this group; top call. (5) BEACH SPORTS impressed in her debut when winning from the 10-hole, not something you see often at this track. Don’t underestimate her coming in fresh in this spot. (8) TRIZZLE TRAZZLE should move up in this spot, but she may be asked to pass them all and she may be best used underneath. (3) MYSTIC SHADOW is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers in this spot.
Race 3 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST LEG – Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies NW $30,000 in 2019
(4) MYBELLA ANGEL managed to take a check in the Grassroots final despite not getting the best trip. She gets top call here. (8) GODDESS DE VIE’s race two starts back puts her right there vs. these if she can stay flat this time. (2) SHES KADABRA COOL can move up in this spot. Look for her to be coming on late to take a share. (5) HEID is worth a look for the bottom of the Tri and Super making her debut off a decent qualifier on October 1st.
Race 4 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST LEG – Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies NW $30,000 in 2019 - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(2) CENTURY GIANNA couldn’t stay with a very sharp winner in the lane last week, but she did well to fend off the backfield to hold second. She gets the nod here over (3) ANTHEM SEELSTER who appears to have been sold privately leading up to this race. (5) KENDALLS COUSIN is going go take a step forward at some point soon, maybe it comes here. (4) HIGHLAND SALSA is hard to leave out with Roy driving in a race that looks wide-open.
Race 5 – CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000
(9) GO RRRILLA – as expected – improved sharply in the new barn last week and I expect Hudon to send him this time; top call. (8) J J MYSTIC STORM was just behind the choice after shipping in and he can contend here. (7) BUDDA BLUE CHIP raced okay after shipping in from Kawartha Downs and he could get a good trip racing near the front here; using. (6) MCSINNER MAN will be coming late, likely to take a smaller share.
Race 6 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST LEG – Ontario Sired 2YO Fillies NW $30,000 in 2019
(1) PRINCESSPARTYPANTS is the best filly in here, the only concern is her leaving from the rail, considering her past gait issues. (9) SUSIES LADY improved sharply last week and she should be right in the mix again; using. (3) LMC BUMBLE BEE has qualified well twice and she should contend for at least a share here. (2) BRA IN THE WIND’s race two starts back would put her in contention here if she can replicate that effort; using underneath.
Race 7 – NW 7 (F&M8) or $120,000 (F&M $150,000) LT
(7) SHES GOT PIZAZZ is in peak form now and she projects to get a good trip racing near the front here; slight nod. (6) SUPERLATIVE closed into an accelerating late pace last time and she can move up in this spot now that she got a clean line in that start. (4) STORMONT VENTNOR gets away from Hey Livvy here and if he popped in this spot it wouldn’t be a shocker. (3) GOLD EDITION used a lethal brush to win the Grassroots final and he’s not out of this despite facing elders.
Race 8 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST LEG – Ontario Sired 2YO Fillies NW $30,000 in 2019 – Pick 4
(8) SHIRAZ SEELSTER had a tightener for this the other night at Flamboro Downs where she wasn’t asked for much. That line will boost her price now she gets McNair back in the bike. Expect an aggressive try here. (7) COCO BEACH DE VIE is worth a look off her most recent effort in the Grassroots final; using. (2) KIT has improving form and she is another that will be in the hunt here; using in this Pick 4. (4) ROSE RUN VICTORY closed stoutly last time. She rarely gets bet and she can add some value to the Tri or Super here.
Race 9 – NW $26,500 L5 or $150.000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000
(2) DREAM TOGETHER got back on track in this class last week, taking her first win of the year and she should be tough right back. (3) SORTIE was closing late vs. the choice and he can be dangerous here with the right trip. (6) P L JILL is no doubt capable at this level, but with breaks in two of her last three starts she’s hard to trust; your call. (7) KAMERAN HANOVER is in sharp form, but a smaller share is likely his ceiling starting from out there in this field.
Race 10 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(5) ODD BALL can be expected to improve here making his second start off a break and this doesn’t look like a tough spot. He gets the nod over (3) MEMO who is another that can move up while making his second start over the track. (1) VENUS DUHARAS raced well at big odds here last time and he probably won’t get bet here, either. Consider using him underneath. (6) PINK PISTOL can go better here if she avoids going first up; using underneath.
Race 11 – 5YO and Younger NW3 or $50,000 LT AE: Grassroots Starters in 2019 NW or $14,000 L5
(4) VANILLA MALTED goes first time for trainer Moreau here and I’ll give him the nod expecting him to move up in this spot. (3) THE REGULATOR holds a sub-1:50 mark taken over this track this summer and he should be prominent throughout vs. these. (7) THE FIRST STEP passed them all after coming off a break and while he benefitted from a slowing late pace, he may also just be faster now. (6) PRICELESS BEACH was part of a rapid early pace and he was still around at the finish. He’s not out of this. (1) BETTER THAN CASH should go better here but I’ll use him underneath only in this spot.