Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 9/7 Analysis
Best Bet: STAG PARTY (9th)
Spot Play: BIT OF LUCK (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 6,9/3,5,7/1,7/3,6,8/1,2,6 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 3,6,8/1,2,6/6/3,6,7 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 4,6,7/1,6/4,5,6/2,4,10 = $54
MEET STATS: 317 - 973 / $1,822.70 BEST BETS: 54 - 87 / $188.70
SPOT PLAYS: 30 - 85 / $173.80
Race 1
(6) LUKA SHENKO stands out here off his last two efforts and he should be hard to beat as the chalk. (9) GOLD RUSH paced a big mile at Clinton three starts back to lose narrowly to the choice and he's the other one that I'll use in the Pick 5 to potentially add some value. (5) CASIMIR RICHIE P was third to a colt who came back to win in the Gold division in his next start and he should take a share here. (1) INTRIGUED AGAIN is having a good season and there's no reason why he shouldn't hit the ticket here.
Race 2
(5) BRONX SEELSTER tuned up for this Grand Circuit try with a sharp win and he deserves top billing here. (3) SUNSHINES FINEST showed no ill effects of missing a month in his tune up for this and he merits a close look here. (7) LYONS NIGHT HAWK couldn't reach Captain Ahab, but that was an excellent try and he is the third one that could win this in my opinion. (6) BLANK CANVAS is capable of better and this field doesn't include Stag Party or Captain Ahab; consider for exotics.
Race 3
(7) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP and (1) KEY WEST look like the two that will slug it out here; slight nod to the former who may hold a tactical advantage. (6) UNDEFIABLE is capable of a good effort if she's at her best, but she has some question marks; using underneath. (5) CRISP MANE never misses the top four and she's another good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 4
(8) ODDS ON ST LUCIE was game in defeat to a very tough filly last time and she should be prominent in here. (6) TALL DRINK HANOVER seems to get better each start and she should be a strong presence on the pace here. (3) PRESCIENT BEAUTY has done little wrong thus far and she's another contender in what should be a good race. (2) IDEATION HANOVER is yet another contender that you can't toss in a race that almost surely will come down to trip. It makes sense to price shop here.
Race 5
(6) QUINTS DREAM was the first to move into some wicked fractions last week and it likely softened her up just enough to get picked off late. She can take this with a decent trip. (1) CENALTA CALL GIRL was the beneficiary in that race, but she can also lay closer and she is one I think you need on multi-race tickets here. (2) PLAY THE BELL finished with pace in a Gold race at Georgian and she fits here. Expect a race more like her effort two starts back. (10) BEACH GODDESS will be a big price here and she's capable of a big late kick to pick up a share.
Race 6
(6) BIT OF LUCK ships in on a roll and goes into the Moreau barn; top call. (1) WIND BLAST was decent vs. some very good colts last Saturday and he's likely the main danger to the choice. (2) MISSION THREE should go closer moving inside, but he's best used underneath. (9) WHEN YOU DANCE has enough speed to get position early from this post and he is a longshot worth a look here.
Race 7
(3) KIWI FOCUS N was used hard early last time, but she was still hanging around at the end. Her good early speed should play well here. (6) ELLA CHRISTINA's two wins at Harrah's Philly puts her right in the mix here and she was likely over her head last time, but still was only beaten two lengths. (7) ARTISTIC MADISON drops a few levels and she must be considered racing this low although she could get overbet. (5) SHEZAREALDEAL can fly home most weeks and she should be coming late to take a share here.
Race 8
This should be a good battle of the unbeaten 'Captains' and I'll side with (5) CAPTAIN AHAB who has shown versatility and brilliance, but he gets only a slight nod over (1) CAPTAIN CRUNCH who was excellent winning the Nassagaweya here last month. (4) HERVEY HANOVER is an improving colt who can crash the exotics here. (8) LOUD SPLASH can pass some of these late and he may land in the Super at a price.
Race 9
(1) STAG PARTY managed to avoid the best 'Captains' at the draw and he looks much the best here. (5) DO YA THINK looks next best and he can race effectively from anywhere. (2) FABRICE HANOVER can sit a trip and come late to take a share. (6) CRUISE CAPTAIN is always on the edges it seems; use on the bottom.
Race 10
(7) PRETTY HANDSOME was impressive with Lasix added last week and he fits this Grassroots class well. He gets a slight nod over (6) JM JACK OF HEARTS who will likely get more aggressive here with Grassroots points on the line and a starting fee required to enter. (4) STONEBRIDGE GUARD gets a notable barn switch and driver change and I'll use him in this Pick 4 based on those changes. (1) GIDEON SEELSTER has a great record and he should be able to hit the Super here.
Race 11
(1) FIREBBY A moves inside nine posts and she should get a much different drive here; top call. (6) WITCH DALI also gets off the 10-hole and she is the other one I'll use in the Pick 4. (3) BETTORS UP is yet another who moves inside that is likely to improve, but I'll use her underneath in this spot. (2) ACTION MAJESTY is another good one to use to complete Tris and Supers and she has good tactical speed and is likely to sit a trip here.
Race 12
(6) BLACK JACK PAT takes a drop here that should put her in a good position to notch her fifth win of the season. (5) ANDERSON SEELSTER also faces much easier and she should be chasing slower fractions here; using. (4) SHES LIGHTS OUT comes off a good try in this class and she should contend here again although she seemed to have little excuse for failing to convert last week. (2) LEAVING A LEGACY was close last time she raced at this level four starts back; consider for exotics.
Race 13
(10) AINT THREE OK is a mare that I liked a lot when she was in Weller's barn here as a two-year-old and I'll take a stab here with her at a price. (2) HOT SPOT HANOVER has a much better chance here starting from an inside post; using. (4) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE was a strong winner in this class last week and she merits serious consideration again although the price drops here. (5) AMERICAN SARA is a class-dropper who will be heard from here in this easier spot and she's capable vs. these. (1) BIG THONG will likely be closing again for a small slice.
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