Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 9/20 Analysis

Meet Stats – 281 – 792 / $1,463.90 (-$117.70)
Best Bets – 47 – 77 / $142.40 (-$13.60)
Spot Plays – 24– 77 / $116.10 (- $34.00)
Best Bet - KAT (3RD)
Spot Play - KIT (6TH)
Pick 5: 2,4,6/2,4,10/4/2,4/2,3,4 = $10.80
Early Pick 4: 2,4/2,3,4/1,3,4,6/3,7 = $48
Late Pick 4: 3,5/1,5,6/1,6/1,3,7 = $36
Race 1 - ONTARIO SIRED 3YO GRASSROOTS STARTERS in 2019 - **GTD $50K Pick 5**
(2) MAGICAL WINNER K took a new life's mark in a strong performance last time and if he repeats that effort his foes are probably racing for second here. (4) CT CONABRA was too far back last time and if he is in closer range here, he could threaten the choice late. (6) JUDGE KEN was no match for the choice, but his form is good and he isn't impossible in a spot where there are no Grassroots points to be had. (3) WINDSONG PIONEER is a good one to use underneath in the Tris and Supers here.
Race 2 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES 2YO Fillies
(4) MYSTIC SHADOW has tried hard in two straight but she hasn't had the greatest trips. She gets a good post to work from here and she should be tough racing on or near the lead. (3) NEED UR OPINION raced well despite breaking last time and if she stays flat here she has a big shot in this field. (10) MACH MY KISS has some of the best form in here and if McNair can get her a spot in the top flight early, she could upset; using. (9) MIA CULPA comes back quick following a decent effort on Monday night and she's worth a look for the exotics here.
Race 3 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 2YO Fillies
(4) KAT has been in the money every time facing some of the best rookie filly pacers on the continent and now she descends to the Grassroots. She should be very tough to beat at a miniscule price. (6) COCOA BEACH DE VIE is in solid form and starting from a good post she should be in the exotics mix. (1) SIOCHAN was sharp at Grand River; consider for Tri and Super bets. (7) CENTURY GIANNA has had a good start to her career and she may come on late.
Race 4 - ONTARIO SIRED 3YO Fillies NW $19,000 L5 - **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(3) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION comes off an impossible trip and now she gets her regular driver back. Look for her to roll by these late. (4) SAULSBROOK JESSIE gets away from the hot Sports Flix and she may boss these. (7) CRISP MANE has raced OK in conditioned races in the past and she could sneak into the Tri here. (6) MONEYMAKEHERSMILE is an interesting shipper who goes for the top trainer here. She should be in the mix.
Race 5 - 2YO NW1 or $11,000 LT
We have the unveiling here of (2) HOPEFULLYICLINED - full brother to Mohawk Park Preferred pacer Physicallyinclined - who has taken a mark of 1:49 flat over this track. She gets top call in a winnable spot here. (3) ST LADS BEATS IT was very good in his lone qualifier showing speed both early and late; using. (4) SUNSHINE N SHADE is another making his debut that qualified well and this race could come down to one of the first-time starters. (9) THREE DRAGONS was decent in his debut. He would be ranked higher if he had a better post.
Race 6 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 2YO Fillies
(3) KIT's 27 2/5 kicker while racing uncovered on the rim sticks out here and while she will need to overcome a quicker early pace in this spot, she may be up to it. (6) LANDRY SEELSTER has raced best over this track and she should be a threat here racing on or near the lead. (4) SO DELIGHTFUL could sit a great trip here and she's another that I'll use in this Pick 4. (1) SATDNITE JUKEBOX should get a much better trip this time and she's not out of this, but I prefer to use her underneath.
Race 7 – NW 3 races or $42,500 lifetime
(5) STEUBEN HANOVER re-qualified well twice and he is good enough to beat these if he stays flat this time. (3) ROYAL ESTEEM comes off a big win but that came vs. much easier. She is a contender, but I wouldn't take a short price on her. (6) FINALLY FOUND AWAY continues to race well and this is another one in with a shot here. (9) EIGHTOCLOCKSTORM has come back in great form and he could sneak into the exotics at a price here.
Race 8 - F&M NW $6,000 L5 or $15,000 L9 AE: OPT CLM $15,000
This race will likely come down to the battle of the class-droppers with a slight nod going to (1) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP over (6) AMERICAN SARA based on the former getting major post relief. Use both in the Pick 4. (5) FRANSCHOEK is still a viable alternative despite disappointing while racing over an off track last time. She could add some value to the late Pick 5 here. (3) FOLLOWTHEWIND N will likely get an easier trip here and she could make it onto the ticket.
Race 9 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 2YO Fillies
(1) QUESO RELLENO was an unlucky loser at Grand River. She should take control of this race early; top call. (6) SOUTHWIND BAYOU had an impossible trip from the worst post and she has a much better chance here lined up in one of the best Mohawk Park starting slots; using. (2) WIGGLE DELIGHT should come on late to take a share and stablemate (3) CAPISTRANO should be up close early and stick around for a small share.
Race 10 - F&M 5YO and Younger NW4 or $65,000 LT
(7) PREMIER CABERNET dug deep to hold off a game rival last time. If she gets put into this race early, she will be tough. (3) OUR VACATION is capable of much better and maybe she'll get motivated earlier here leaving from an inside post. (1) BE BEST is right in the mix every week and there's no reason to expect that to change here. (2) BENS JENNA improved sharply with McNair driving for the second time and he returns here; using underneath. (8) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY is always a possibility to close and make it onto the High-5 or Superfecta ticket.