Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 9/14 Analysis
Best Bet: DON’T STOP BELIEVIN (10th)
Spot Play: AINT THREE OK (2nd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,7/1,5,7/1,2,5/3,5,6/2,5 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,6/2,5/2,6/3,6,9 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,6/1/1,2,3,4,5/1,2,6 = $30
MEET STATS: 332 - 1021 / $1,911.40 BEST BETS: 55 - 91 / $191.10
SPOT PLAYS: 30 - 89 / $173.80
Race 1
(7) JENKINS CREEK and (3) REIKI both drop to the bottom and land in a soft field. Slight nod to the former who will probably look to control it but using both in the Pick 5. (8) TOMY TERROR is also dropping, but post may neutralize him here and relegate him to taking a smaller share. (4) HIGHPOINT CHIP comes off a solid win from the worst post at Flamboro and he could add some value to the exotics here.
Race 2
(7) AINT THREE OK flew off the gate last week but there were too many leavers. I'll stick with her in this spot expecting an improved effort. (1) FOREVER LIZA moves inside, and she may be able to work out a winning trip here; using. (5) HOT SPOT HANOVER chased some solid splits last time then stuck around late. She's another who could take this with the right trip. (3) REGAL LUCK is in solid form and she's won here in the past. Expect an aggressive try.
Race 3
(1) PURE COUNTRY tuned up for this with a gutsy win over the track and she seems to be rounding into top form now; top call. (5) TEQUILA MONDAY should be a speed threat in this short field and if she gets any breathers, look out. (2) NIKE FRANCO N has been facing the best recently and she's not out of this. (6) FROST DAMAGE BLUES has raced well here in the past and she could hit the exacta or trifecta at a price.
Race 4
(6) KENDALL SEELSTER looked like she had the measure of Pure Country last time but that rival re-rallied. Beating older is nothing new for this mare who crushed sophomores from the 10-hole as a two-year-old; price play. (5) CAVIART ALLY will deservedly take plenty of action here and she is likely the one to beat. (3) L A DELIGHT is a classy veteran who should be respected in this spot; using. (2) ELLA CHRISTINA was flying late last week but these are much tougher; small share predicted.
Race 5
(5) CLEAR IDEA lands in a field she should be able to beat after facing tough ones all year. (2) TWENTY THREE RED drops back to the level where she won two back and she could challenge racing from close range here. (3) P L HURRICANE moves inside, and she should take a share leaving from an inside slot. (1) BUTTERMILK HANOVER can fire home fast on her best day and she is another who is a good one to use underneath here.
Race 6
(2) OUTLAW IMAHOTVIXEN takes a huge class drop and she should control it here; no excuses. (6) BIG THONG's last two starts are probably better than they look on paper and if there's an upsetter in this field, it's her. (1) CAYO LOCO brings good form back to the big track and she has raced well here many times in the past; using underneath. (7) LEAVING A LEGACY can take a small share same as she did when dropped to this level last week.
Race 7
(3) DRAGON TIME raced okay in the Simcoe and there are now Downtown Buses in here; top call. (6) CASIMIR RICHIE P took a new life's mark last time in a Grassroots race and he should be a top contender here if the intent is there in between stakes engagements. (9) LEVIS DAY always tries hard and he never gets bet. I'll use him in exactas and tris here. (1) PLAY JET RAY is worth a look for the exotics adding Lasix.
Race 8
(2) PRECISION HANOVER is one of few in here that probably doesn't have a stakes race coming next, so I'll give her the nod expecting an aggressive steer. (5) HELLO LOVE is an obvious threat, but she might be coming too late here. (3) QUINTS DREAM has made a living out of finishing second, so she may be rated too low here, but she is good enough to win too with the right trip. (7) DRY SILK FLOWERS has hit her best stride recently and a threepeat isn't out of the question here.
Race 9
(6) SANDBETWEENURTOES is supposed to beat this group with the main rival on paper being (3) OBVIOUS BLUE CHIP who has faced some tough ones down south and adds Lasix. Nod to the former, but I'll use both in the Pick 4. (9) ACTION MAJESTY drops too, but the top two should prove very tough; minor share predicted. (4) REQUEST FOR PAROLE should be good to make the Super racing at this level.
Race 10
(1) DON'T STOP BELIEVIN handled many of these easily last time; call to repeat. (7) AZURE SEELSTER can blast to the front then stick around for a big piece of this. (2) JAN is another who should leave well then turn a following trip into a share. (3) PLAY THE BELL is capable but she has missed a couple of weeks; using underneath.
Race 11
(5) REDONKULOUS moves to a much better post and a big speed try should be coming here; top call. (4) MCDAVE was nailed late on Monday night in the rain on a night where closers did very well. I'll use him here if he goes. (3) SURF REPORT raced great considering the fractions he was forced to cut last time. He is in with a good shot here. (2) PAR INTENDED is a hard-trying sort who should take at least a small slice here.
Race 12
(1) VINES TO HEAVEN's race in this class on August 17th is good enough to win this if she can replicate it. (2) SHADOW WORLD has been coming close against some good ones and she fits well here. (6) OXFORD COMMA has some sneaky form and if she lands in the pocket again here, she could be dangerous. (9) MITTANY NICOLE can be a factor racing in this class and her price should be good. (10) SPORTS ICON steps back up, but she may be able to work her way onto the High-5 ticket vs. these.
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