Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 8/31 Analysis
Best Bet: PURE COUNTRY (5th)
Spot Play: STAR BUSTER (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,5,8,10/2,3,7/2,6,7/1,3,6/9 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,6/9/1,4,7/5,6,10 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,9/1,6/6,10/4,7,9 = $36
MEET STATS: 298 - 915 / $1,720.70 BEST BETS: 51 - 83 / $178.00
SPOT PLAYS: 27 - 80 / $153.40
Race 1
(10) FOR THE RECORD was solid in this class four starts back then she raced over her head. She can bounce back here, even from out there. (5) DRY SILK FLOWERS hinted at better things with a 27 2/5 kicker two starts back, then converted as a longshot when she picked up Roy. With her improving form, I'll use her here. (8) RUBY HANOVER is capable if she minds her manners and she should be a good price here. (1) SHE CAN PARTY brings good form in from out of town, and while these are tougher, she isn't without a chance.
Race 2
I have thought right from the start that (2) FORBIDDEN TRADE was a top-class colt, He gets a chance to show it here in Grand Circuit action. (7) KINGS COUNTY goes for top connections who typically do well here; using. (3) SOUTHWIND AVENGER passes rivals every week and he will be coming late here again. I'll use him in this Pick 5, too. (1) LIFETIME ROYALTY can set the pace and stick around to make the ticket vs. these.
Race 3
(7) HUDSON RIVER raced well from an impossible spot in the Haughton and he should be tough in here. (2) UNION FORCES has done nothing wrong so far, but he'll need to get faster to tackle the choice here. (6) DREAM NATION is the best local hope and he could make a race of it if close enough turning for home; using. (4) COOL CLIFFORD is a bomb who may close late for a small share; consider using underneath.
Race 4
(3) SHIPSHAPE faces easier and gets Mcnair and Lasix here. He gets my nod. (6) CAPITANO ITALIANO also faces much easier and he should be heard from here. (1) YS SUNSHINE showed enough speed to contend here is his debut and he gets Roy back this time. I'll use him on multi-race tickets. (7) WINDSUN RICKY is always around for smaller shares and he will likely make the Super racing in this field.
Race 5
(9) PURE COUNTRY gets away from the top aged pacing mare on the continent here and she should beat these. (1) REIS STAR CROSS should get away better here and she could crash the exotics at a price. (10) FIREBBY A is in such good from that she could hit the ticket, even from out there. (8) EXHILARATED has never been better and she will provide a good price option here.
Race 6
(4) STRENGTH OFA WOMAN is going good now and she picks up Gingras here; top call. (1) REPENTANCE looks like the one to beat and she's a Pick 4 must-use for me. (7) BLONDE MAGIC faced the best in North America last time and raced well, considering. She fits much better here. (5) SMOKE AND MIRRORS can be a speed threat and hang around for a share here.
Race 7
(6) CENALTA CALL GIRL may get the best trip here with a few expected leavers lined up on the outside; slight nod in a tricky race. (5) DON'T STOP BELIEVIN made two moves to take a new life's mark last time and she should be a threat right back. (10) SOS BAMBIE is rolling for trainer Auciello and she can hit the ticket despite starting from the worst post. (3) QUINTS DREAM is obviously capable, but she's burned money before in conditioned races. I'll tread lightly here.
Race 8
(3) OKEANOS was impressive winning a Gold race last time and he should get enough pace to chase here; slight nod. (4) ROYAL ROB is unbeaten in races where he stays flat and he's an obvious contender here. (6) CT CONABRA is the likely early leader and he could get brave if he is allowed to take any breathers. (2) STEUBEN HANOVER is capable of a good try on his best day, but he comes off a break and missed some time. I'll use underneath.
Race 9
(2) BUTTERMILK HANOVER couldn't quite reach up last time, but she closed in 26 1/5. She is one of several that could win this. (9) LAY LADY LAY usually gets driven aggressively when racing this low and her price will likely be good starting from out there; using. (1) TWENTY THREE RED was a game winner last week and she is hard to leave out at this point. (6) KIWI FOCUS N drops and should be heard from here. She is another who can take this with the right trip.
Race 10
(1) STAR BUSTER has won 10 of his last 19 starts and looks like he may have found the key taking the trotting hopples off in his last two qualifiers. He gets my nod here over (6) TOUCHDOWN AS, who won in this class on Monday night and comes back for his sixth start of the month here. (2) GISELE TREELANE is going to wake up one of these nights; maybe tonight? (9) HETTIES COMMANDER looks to repeat in this class, but from this post, I'll use him underneath.
Race 11
(10) HOT SPOT HANOVER won at a big price last time she raced this low and she should be a good price here again. (6) WANDA BAYAMA raced close several times in this class and it's only a matter of when, not if she takes her first win of the year. (5) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE could wake up with a big rally in this spot; beware. (3) BLACK JACK PAT fell just short last time when racing in this class. She's not out of this.
Race 12
(9) FOREVER LIZA was ridiculously overbet last time and she showed little. The price goes up here and I'll land on her in a wide-open race. (4) DAZZLING ROCKETTE doesn't win often, but her most recent try puts her in the mix with these. (7) FROG POND PRINCESS - full sister to Jimmy Freight - raced better at Georgian and she could be sneaky in here. (5) SHE LIGHTS OUT is inconsistent, but she is still dangerous at this level. (6) BID WRITER adds Lasix and moves to Moreau which makes her worth a look.
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