Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 8/30 Analysis

Meet Stats – 227 – 648 / $1,189.30 (-$124.10)
Best Bets – 37 – 63 / $111.20 (-$17.20)
Spot Plays – 20 – 63 / $100.50 (- $23.60)
Best Bet – ALICORN (8TH)
Spot Play – CATCH AN ACE (10TH)
Pick 5 – 2,5,8/8/1,3,4,5/4,6,8/2,6,8 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 4,6,8/2,6,8/5/1,4,7,8 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 1,4,7,8/3/1,2,5,6/6
Race 1 - NW 3 (FM 5) RACES OR $42,500 (FM $50,000) LIFETIME - **GTD $50K Pick 5**
(8) SISTERS PROMISE has faced a steady diet of top stakes fillies all year and coming in off a race where she broke, she could offer some value to kick off this pick 5; slight nod. (2) MACALLAN has hit his best stride and he gets a good draw here; the one to beat. (5) FINALLY FOUND AWAY was out of position last time. He gets a good post here and he is capable of better; using. (6) SWAN BEFORE ALL blew up the tote board here last time. His good gate speed puts him in the mix for at least a share.
Race 2 – F&M NW $25,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NW $175,000 LIFETIME. AE: OPT CLM. $60,000.
This looks like a great spot for (8) KENDALL SEELSTER to get back on track and I expect her to be forwardly-placed early. (6) ALEXIS FAITH is sharp, and she could upset here if she can find a live helmet to follow in the back half. (1) THE JOY LUCK CLUB drops and she should contend for a share vs. these. (9) BETTER BE DONNA N has been great racing here, but post is an issue here; small share predicted for her.
Race 3 – 2 YEAR OLDS, NW 3 RACES OR $20,000 LT
(1) ESAI HANOVER put up a good fight against a hot rival last time and he gets the nod here. (5) TEAM BEST takes a massive drop from Grand Circuit company and sharp improvement is likely; using. (4) FORCE N FURY comes off a decent effort and he should be in the mix here. (3) ROCKIN THE ACES picks up driver Gingras for his third start over the track and he may better this placing with a trip.
Race 4 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - GOLD - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(8) OFF THE PRESS couldn’t keep pace with the brilliant Alicorn in the Eternal Camnation, but there is no filly like her in here and this one gets top call. (4) TEMAGAMI SEELSTER gets Gingras back for a return drive and I’ll use her as a multi-race price option. (6) P L NOTORIOUS is hot and hard to leave out in this spot. (1) ROSE RUN VANTAGE has a great record and while this looks like a tougher spot, she should at least hit the ticket.
Race 5 – CHAMPLAIN - 2 YEAR OLDS
(8) PORT PERRY hasn’t done much wrong to this point and he’ll likely bring a better price than his main rival (6) SYNERGY who faced the best on the continent most recently and is the obvious one to beat. (2) HORSE TRADER has moved up with Henry driving and he has upset possibilities here. (4) SEBASTIAN RAY is worth a look for the exotics on the barn change.
Race 6 – FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED
(5) SEASWIFT JOY N gets away from Shartin N here and she will take beating in this spot. (2) DOUBLE A MINT comes to play every week and she should be right there again. (3) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL has also been facing the best most of the year and she should be right in the thick of the battle here. (6) SHOWER PLAY will be closing late for a small share.
Race 7 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 – Pick 4
(4) CAULFIELD has improving form and a better post. He gets a slight nod in a race that appears to be wide-open. (7) CANTABERNET looked home free but he couldn’t seal the deal last time. A similar effort may be good enough against these. (8) OCEANVIEW DEB seems to be creeping closer to a win; maybe tonight? (1) ADVERSITY should contend at a price if he stays flat this time.
Race 8 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - GOLD - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(3) ALICORN comes in off a tour-de-force Grand Circuit win. She’s impossible to make a case against here in a sires stake. (1) KARMA SEELSTER beat the choice narrowly at Grand River helped by Alicorn’s break in stride. She looks next best here. (5) KAT has raced well against perhaps the best rookie pacing filly in North America and she should make the board here. (8) SOUND IDEA can leave for position and stick around to land in the Super.
Race 9 – FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 4 RACES OR $45,000 LT
(5) APOTHIC gets McNair back and she faces a quintet of sophomores here after racing against some salty older mares last time; top call. (1) CRISP MANE is probably better than her record suggests, and she should be a contender in here. (2) SWEET DIAMOND was beaten by the choice last time, but she gets major post relief here and she could turn the tables if she trips out. (6) BE BEST figures for a piece dropping out of a Gold race.
Race 10 – FILLIES & MARES, NW $7,400 L5 $16,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000
(6) CATCH AN ACE gets class and post relief here; expect a big speed try. (2) ARTISTIC MADISON also drops but she is still stuck on one win this year and she is more likely to complete the exacta than win here. (3) TWENTY THREE RED was closing quickly last time and Roy can trip her out to get a good check here. (7) ROYALTYWESTHO is always in the top 4 it seems; using in Supers and High-5s. (8) WHISTYS PARADISE can pass a few of these late; consider using on the bottom.