Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 8/3 Analysis
Best Bet: MUSCLE HIGH (5th)
Spot Play: LMC MASS OAK (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,3,4,5/1,3,4,7/3,5,6/1,3,4,8/6 = $38.40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4,8/6/1,2,4,8/5 = $16
LATE PICK 4: 5/1,5,8/4,5,6/2,3,4,7,10 = $45
MEET STATS: 235 - 703 / $1,406.10 BEST BETS: 37 - 63 / $130.60
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 60 / $138.00
Race 1
Interesting opener with a few in between stakes engagements, so I'll shoot for a price with (5) BETTER THAN CASH, who was only a stride short of beating a heavy chalk that got a much better trip last time in a solid debut. (1) B STONEY will be a deserving heavy chalk off his excellent mile from the 9-hole last time. He's a Pick 5 must-use. (4) BATTLE STRONG gets better every week and he's another that I'll use in the Pick 5. (3) QUICKSTAR BLUECHIP flew late in his debut when he was free. He should be in the hunt again here.
Race 2
(7) MONI JUSTICE was very good racing in this class two starts back and this isn't the toughest spot. Maybe Hudon can leave a bit this time and start an early assault on the leaders. (1) TREASURED TEE adds Lasix and gets his owner back driving here. A big wakeup effort is possible. (4) ALEXUS EH missed a month then broke last time. She has the best races on her card, but it's impossible to predict how sound she is, and she is almost sure to get overbet. (3) BASTIANO has won 9 of his last 28 starts and his consistency and good gate speed shouldn't be overlooked here.
Race 3
(5) PEPE DI JESOLO goes to the most potent “off-the-claim” barn following an improved effort. He gets top call here. (6) THE POWER OF MANY also goes for a barn that moves them up and she will be the one to catch. (3) TUSCANS MEMORY raced decently twice in a row in this class in July with McNair driving; upset chance. (7) ROSE RUN SPEEDSTER is worth a look for the exotics dropping into a claimer this time.
Race 4
(1) MACH THE CUT went down to New Jersey and she drew poorly three times in a row and had bad trips in each race. She can rebound here from a good post. (3) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE has developed into a pretty nice racehorse and she deserves serious consideration here. (4) AMERICAN CHEER drops after getting used up early last time. She's definitely in the mix vs. these. (8) BAD NIGHT MARE is another dropper to consider who should provide a much better effort here.
Race 5
(6) MUSCLE HIGH was an easy winner four starts back when he last raced in this class. He gets Lasix and Macdonald here, too; top call. (4) GLENCOE ZANI went a big trip in defeat last time and he may be finally coming around; using. (5) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY can be an early threat here and he could win it if everything breaks his way. (8) DOTTIE is consistently trotting sharp miles now, but she is more likely to take a slice than win.
Race 6
(4) JUST HER LUCK closed well into a very fast final 1/4 last time is an effort that signals she's coming back to her best form; top call. (8) BIG THONG had a worse trip and finished behind the choice. She's capable of turning the tables here. (1) PLAY THE BELL exits the same dash and she finished ahead of the two above, but she is likely chalk and holds no major advantage, in my opinion. (2) SOS BAMBIE woke up at a huge price last time and she should make the ticket at a minimum here.
Race 7
(5) LMC MASS OAK was an easy winner last time he tried this class then he drew poorly several times in a row. He should handle these. (3) ROSESAREEXPLOSIVE comes off a decent effort vs. lesser out of town, but she should be rallying for a piece of this. (1) PINK PISTOL should be a speed threat again and may sit the choice's pocket most of the way. (6) AVUNCULAR steps up coming off a lifetime-best score. These are tougher, but he should be in the hunt.
Race 8
(5) MAJESTIC FIRE was beaten by two very good colts last time and I'll give him the edge vs. this group which should be an easier test for him. (8) BARNEY MAC is likely the best in here, but he will likely have to pass them all to win and he could find himself at the mercy of pace and trip. (1) WINNING AMERICAN is an improving sort that has won the last two conditioned races he was in; using. (2) CANTABERNET frequently shares but rarely wins. That trend is likely to continue here.
Race 9
(6) AMERICAN SARA was sent aggressively at the start last time and she hung around in a quick mile. A slightly better trip up front could see her upset these. (4) ARTISTIC MADISON was part of the pace battle the choice was involved in and she stayed for 2nd. She should be a big threat here. (5) KENDALL SEELSTER comes off a record-setting performance in the Gold division and she is obviously the fastest of these right now, but she doesn't need to win this, and I wonder how aggressive she will be early. (1) EXHILARATED is a hard-knocker who should fill one of the Tri and/or Super slots.
Race 10
(10) WANDA BAYAMA was dead-game in defeat last time and her price should go up moving to the worst post. I'll land here. (7) FILLY FORTY SEVEN was handled more aggressively last time and she hit the board. She is another who should be a better price here; using. (2) NAUGHTY LADY B was flying late and if she can get closer earlier, she can beat these. (3) DONTBRUISECARRIE is another closer who could upset with the right trip. (4) BERNADETTE drops but she has been very inconsistent this year and she will probably be way overbet in this spot. I'll try to beat her.
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