Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 8/24 Analysis
Best Bet: JUMPSHOT (2nd)
Spot Play: PARTY BEACH (12th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4,8/3/6,7/3,4,5/5,7,9 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,4,5/5,7,9/4,5/3,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 4,7,8/5,7,9,10/2,4,6/6 = $36
MEET STATS: 280 - 860 / $1,632.40 BEST BETS: 47 - 78 / $162.50
SPOT PLAYS: 27 - 75 / $153.40
Race 1
(8) DON'T STOP BELIEVIN raced well coming off a long break last time, and she should be a good price here starting from the outside; slight nod. (4) VINES TO HEAVEN made two moves and hung on gamely to win. She should be tough again here; using. (3) HELLO LOVE beat weaker, but she took a new life's mark in the process; using. (6) AZURE SEELSTER is another coming off a win who is in with a shot in a contentious heat.
Race 2
(3) JUMPSHOT looks like a Pick 5 single dropping out of Gold company and he should make short work of these. (1) SINFUL jumped up with a much-improved effort last time to win at a price and she could crash the exotics here if she stays trotting. (6) ALLTHEFIXINS is another dropping from the Golds who merits a look here. (4) FIREDBYLINDIE couldn't stave off the rail horse last time, but that was a solid effort and she can share here.
Race 3
(7) DREAMY FELLA drops to a level where she should get an aggressive steer from Christoforou; top call. (6) ITS JUST TOO MUCH had his hands full chasing a big chalk who was unrelenting on the lead last time, but that was a solid effort and he's a contender here. (4) MACH DEJA VU is always around the money of late it seems; using underneath. (3) P L IDAHO made a big recovery after breaking last time, but he seemed uncontrollable from the start. I'll play to beat him here.
Race 4
(4) CARDIFF and (3) I SHADOW U stick out here and I'll use both on multi-race tickets but give the nod to the former who has been faster most of the year. (5) SHADOW WORLD exits a couple of quick heats and she should take a share, at least. (8) ASKMYSECRETARY takes slices more than 50 per cent of the time and she should be closing late here.
Race 5
(7) HIDDEN DELIGHT took a new life's mark last week - somewhat aided by the chalk's choice to take back and race conservatively - but he should be tough right back vs. these. (5) GRANTMEAWISH can be more effective here and if he makes the front at some point he will likely be hard to overhaul. (9) TORRIN HANOVER has hit his best stride but he may be forced to take back here which would likely limit his chance of winning. (10) LEVIS DAY has been racing well for weeks and he could make the Super here at a big price.
Race 6
(4) KLOOF STREET dug in while drifting out down the lane last time and she is a game competitor right now; call to repeat. (5) BEACH GODDESS couldn't reach the choice but that was a good effort and she is a player here. (6) SOS BAMBIE exits the same race as the top two where she was flying late. She should be coming late again to take a share. (9) ANDERSON SEELSTER faces easier here and she could last much longer if she can clear to the front quickly.
Race 7
The battle of the titans pits the Hambletonian winner (3) ATLANTA vs. the Hambletonian Oaks winner (8) MANCHEGO. I guess I must pick one, so I'll side with Atlanta, who hasn't lost to a filly yet this year, but this really is a coin toss between two great fillies. (7) BLONDE MAGCI can close for the show spot, but the top two are likely to be long gone from the rest if they both stay trotting. (9) EX HANOVER has been brought along slowly by her connections, but I could see her closing for a piece of this at a huge price.
Race 8
(6) SHADOW MOON has faced tough older foes in his last two and he should appreciate getting back into his own division here; top call. (4) BO MACH showed little last time, but he's worth a look here with Gingras named. (2) WESTERN PASSAGE may be able to make his way onto the ticket starting from the inside here. (1) TREASURE WRITER also moves inside and is capable of sitting a trip and hitting the ticket.
Race 9
(8) BEE IN CHARGE has some appeal going back to driver MacDonald here and dropping in class and the price may still be good; top call. (4) STREAMSONG moves inside and gets Cullen. A much more aggressive try could be coming here. (7) ROSESAREEXPLOSIVE tried hard last time and only faltered late. She's in the mix here. (10) SMOKE MONKEY is in decent enough form to contend for at least a small share here.
Race 10
With so much speed signed on outside here, I'll take a swing with closer (5) REIS STAR CROSS to sweep by them all late at a price. (10) WITCH DALI has developed a lethal late kick and if she can get decent position early, she should be right there. (9) FIREBBY A is on top of her game and an obvious contender, but post could be the great equalizer in this race. (7) CLEAR IDEA is worth a look adding Lasix coming off a break.
Race 11
(6) BUTTERMILK HANOVER drops, and she stands a good chance to pop vs. these. (4) TWENTY EIGHT RED steps up but is in very good form and she should be a threat here. (2) AMERICAN SARA is another class-dropper who should be in the thick of things here; using. (3) HOT SPOT HANOVER is likely to take another small share in this field.
Race 12
(6) PARTY BEACH drops to a likely spot and moves from the worst post to one of the best; top call. (9) BAROCKEY also drops a level after chasing some big fractions. She's a contender here. (8) CASINO CLASSIC could show better here exiting the same race as Barockey; consider for exotics. (4) JET TO THE BEACH should be able to hit the ticket racing at this level. (7) AMERICAN CHEER got hung out to dry last time. She has a better chance to get a spot near the front here and she is another to consider using underneath.
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