Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 8/2 Analysis

Meet Stats – 158 – 475 / 811.50 (-$138.50)
Best Bets – 26 - 44 / $75.10 (-$12.60)
Spot Plays – 10 – 43 / $48.50 (- $37.50)
Best Bet – JUST HER LUCK - (11TH)
Spot Play – OUR VACATION - (5TH)
Pick 5 – 3,4,6/2,7/1,5,8/1,5,6/3 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 1,5,6/3/2,6,10/3,7 = $18
Late Pick 4 – 4,7,10/2,6,7/1,2,6/3 = $27
Can Am Pick 4 – 1,2,6/1,4,6/3/3,6,7,9 = $7.20
Race 1 – 2YO Fillies – **GTD $50K Pick 5 **
Tough race to predict with virtually every filly in the race likely in between Grassroots starts, but I'll give the fastest finisher (6) COQUI COQUI the nod to chase them all down late. (4) WIGGLE DELIGHT dominated when she dropped into the Grassroots from Gold company and she should have a big shot here, too. (3) ROSE RUN VANTAGE is unbeaten and shipping west and missing 19 days had no effect on her performance in her winning Mohawk Park debut; another possibility. (5) SUNSHINE HALL took advantage of a slowing late pace to win last time. I see a smaller share for her this time.
Race 2 – Ontario Sired 3YO Grassroots Starters in 2019
(1) C T CONABRA was never headed in his successful 2019 debut and he looks as though he may have improved over the winter and spring; call to repeat. (8) ROYALE ELITE was 0 for 6 in 2019 before his second last start and now he is 2 for 8. Include him while he's hot. (5) ESA is capable of a strong rally and he certainly isn't out of this. (2) LIFETIME ROYALTY should be closing late for a slice.
Race 3 – 3YO Filly Open
Here's another 'tweener" race in which most of the field are in between stakes engagements and it's not always easy to predict trips in this case, but, (2) POWERFUL CHRIS certainly stands out on class and form. I'll give her a slight nod understanding that she doesn't have to win this race. (7) SUNNY DEE should be happy to not see buzzsaw Bodicea on the track and she's a top contender here. (4) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION could be the best closer in this race, but she may not get the pace setup that she needs; small share predicted. (6) BEAUTYONTHEBEACH just beat some decent older mares and if she takes the front early and the others are in no hurry to make a challenging move, look out.
Race 4 – F&M 5YO and Younger NW4 or $45,000 LT - **GTD $50K Pick 4 **
(1) CINDERELLA DELIGHT got paced off her feet by Kylie Seelster who made an astounding brush to the front in the third 1/4 then opened up a big lead, but this filly was game to the wire and she gets top call vs. these. (6) LADY FINETUNE just wins and it makes sense to use her on multi-race tickets again. (5) BETCHA BABY's rally should play much better vs. these types; using. (2) BIDFORA HUG can come on late and get into the Tri or Super.
Race 5 - F&M NW $3,150 L5 or NW $7,000 L10
(3) OUR VACATION was airborne late last time and she just ran out of racetrack. Moving inside and facing similar she is a multi-race single for me. (8) UNDEFIABLE has been keeping tough company all summer. She should wake up here with a much better try and result. (4) CASINO CLASSIC also takes a class dip and she exits a fast race; consider for exotics. (9) SUDDEN PASSING is capable of better. Maybe she will improve here making her third start back.
Race 6 - 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT
(6) ROYAL ESTEEM is only 1 for 13 this year, but her most recent start against talented Bright Eyes M is the best recent race of any in here. She gets the nod. (5) MATTYS SMILIN almost won Gold last time Roy drove and he returns here. She's a must-use for me on the driver change. (2) SOUTHWIND FROST is racing well and his second win shouldn't be far off now; using. (10) MERCEDES TALMA wasn't far behind the choice last time and she could win this if she can work out a trip from out there.
Race 7 - OSS Gold 3YO Colts and Geldings
(3) CENTURY FARROH comes to play every race and you'll notice that he beat the Meadowlands Pace winner on June 29th here. Filion has post position advantage here and I'm sure he'll make good use of it. (7) STAG PARTY has raced better recently and although the choice beat him twice a few starts back, he could turn the tables here. (10) BEST IN SHOW tripped out to win the Meadowlands Pace and while he's capable, I can't envision a winning trip from this post. I'll play to beat him here. (8) BRONX SEELSTER was as buried as a horse can get in the final 1/4 of last week's race and while he should have plenty of energy stored up, this is no easy spot at all; small share predicted.
Race 8 - F&M NW $15,000 L5 or NW $28,000 L10 AE: NW $128,000 LT or OPT CLM $35,000
(7) BETTER BE DONNA N keeps rolling through these conditions and while this may be another tough race, she has post advantage on the mare that almost caught her last week, so I'll stick with her. (10) ALEXIS FAITH was game and just missed vs. the choice last week. She's a main contender again despite her post. (4) AMERICAN SARA was a winner last time she raced this low and she gets a good post here; using. (9) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP draws poorly again, but she's capable of making it onto the Super ticket with some racing luck.
Race 9 - F&M NW $6,000 L5 or NW $13,600 L9 AE: OPT CLM $15,000
(7) KLOOF STREET raced decently in a quick mile vs. better now she drops. She should be tough at this level. (2) SOUTHWIND ION has never been better, coming off a lifetime-best score. She steps up a level, but a threepeat isn't out of the question here. (6) ROCKIN PRALINE should wake up with the class drop here. I'll toss her on my late Pick 4 ticket. (1) SHARKS SUMMRSHANDY disappointed at 8 to 5 last week. I'll use her on the bottom here.
Race 10 - NW 3 (F&M 5) or $44,000 LT - Can Am Pick 4 Leg 1
(6) HEY JOCK has won two straight impressively using an aggressive racing style. These are tougher, but he gets the nod considering how sharp he has been recently. (2) FINGALS WAVE and (1) MANATLAS both drop from Golds and both are quite capable vs. these. I'll use both in the Can Am Pick 4. (3) ARABELLAS CADET is in great form but this is a tough task and I see her taking a small share vs. these.
Race 11 - F&M NW $10,000 L5 or NW $20,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000 - Can Am Pick 4 Leg 3
(3) JUST HER LUCK takes a big class plunge here and she should handle this bunch. (4) FRANSCHOEK steps up off a predictable win. She should get a good trip near the front here and stay for a big share. (1) KIWI FOCUS N can sit a nice following trip behind the leaders and hit the Tri or Super. (8) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP and (9) HELLO LOVE are two to consider for the bottom of Super and High-5 wagers.