Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 8/17 Analysis
Best Bet: IZZY HANOVER (3rd)
Spot Play: BEACH GODDESS (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5,8/1,5,7/4/4,5,7/2,3,5 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,7/2,3,5/9/1,4,9 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 1,4,9/3,4/2,4/5,6 = $24
MEET STATS: 266 - 807 / $1,576.40 BEST BETS: 44 - 73 / $153.20
SPOT PLAYS: 26 - 70 / $150.60
Race 1
(5) FOR A DREAMER ships in with a couple of decent stakes tries in tow and he should be a top contender in this field. (8) WHAT CHAPTER only had one bad race, when he broke on the Monticello 1/2-miler. He is always in contention racing here it seems; using. (9) BLONDE MAGIC may get overbet here coming back from the Hambletonian Oaks and she's far from a lock vs. this group. (3) TINAS MAJESTY should be closing late for a slice here.
Race 2
(7) WINNING AMERICAN was hug out challenging in a 56 1/5 back 1/2 last time which was mission impossible. A better trip gets him home vs. these. (5) TREASURED TEE was second to a strong repeat winner last time and he is one of the main contenders in this field. (1) VEYRON was too far back racing in the slop last time. He could wake up with a much better try here leaving from the inside. (6) JAMMIN JACK steps up off a loss, but his solid form should get him a share here.
Race 3
(4) IZZY HANOVER has faced a couple of good ones in her past two starts and she should appreciate the class relief here. (1) SHELLIE DE VIE fired a quick final 1/4 last time despite being out of contention for the win. She has some upset potential here. (2) VINES TO HEAVEN should make the ticket again here racing from close range. (3) RUBY HANOVER could crash the exotics if she stays pacing this time.
Race 4
(5) BEACH GODDESS may have signaled a return to her best from when she cut that quick opening 1/2 mile last time. I'll give her the nod here. (7) CENALTA CALL GIRL loses Roy here, but her form is too good to ignore; using. (4) KLOOF STREET is another in very good form who will no doubt be prominent throughout again here. (1) DREAMFAIR ETERNITY faces tougher here, but she can take a slice closing late.
Race 5
(2) Y C BROADWAY meets another field he can beat and perhaps he will still be a good price; top call. (5) GLIDER MAN should be the main danger if he stays flat; using. (3) WILL CAN GO is usually in contention when he stays trotting and he's another that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (4) IMF took nine starts to beat maidens so I'm betting that she won't beat winners in her first try.
Race 6
(9) BETTORS UP meets a field she should beat here, and McNair will likely send her off the gate; top call. (4) LAY LADY LAY is always contentious in these classes and she in the logical alternative to the choice. (7) SHEZAREALDEAL drops a level and she should be passing some of these late. (5) BUTTERMILK HANOVER was a dead-game 2nd at Grand River despite being used hard early. She could better this placing.
Race 7
(9) ARCANE SEELSTER will appreciate the big class drop here and he could take these coast-to-coast. (4) BETTER TAN CASH was decent vs. a tough winner in his first try here and he looks like the main danger. (1) BEACH MEADOWS - full brother to Melmerby Beach - will take some play here and he certainly has the look of a contender. (6) ROUSSEAU can go better in this second start and fill one of the lower exotic rungs.
Race 8
(3) TALBOTCREEK SUZIE comes back quickly off a good effort and she could prove best here. (4) AVUNCULAR made two moves in a decent try and he looks like the main threat to the choice. (7) TIKI TAKA will be closing again, and the short field should help his cause this time. (2) HIGH BID adds Lasix off the Waxman claim. He's not impossible in this spot.
Race 9
(2) BLACK JACK PAT takes a big drop here and note that she won at a higher level six starts back; top call. (4) FROG POND PRINCESS merits a long look going for Auciello for the first time here; using. (3) P L HURRICANE failed as the big chalk in this class last week. I'll play to beat her again here. (1) DONTBRUISECARRIE can sit a trip and come late for a slice here.
Race 10
(5) STORMONT KATE drops to a level where she could be boss on the front end. (6) MANOFMANYIMAGES improved sharply racing at this level last start. I'll use him in the late Pick 4. (3) DOTTIE is consistently around the money at this level; using underneath. (8) ETRUSCAN HANOVER is the wild card here because if he behaves, he is obviously much the best. He will get played with McClure driving, but is too risky for my liking at this point.
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