Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 8/16 Analysis

Meet Stats – 190– 556 / $1,007.50 (-$104.50)
Best Bets – 30 – 54 / $90.80 (-$17.20)
Spot Plays – 14 – 53 / $71.20 (- $34.80)
Best Bet – TALL DARK STRANGER – (8TH)
Spot Play – QUEBEC BLUE CHIP – (2ND)
Pick 5 – 1,4,5,6/2/6,7,8/4,5,6,7/1,3,7 = $28.80
Early Pick 4 – 4,5,6,7/1,3,7/1,5/3 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 3/8/4,6/2,3,4,8,9 = $10
Race 1 –F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $28,000 LT – **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(1) WINDSONG PARISIAN was flying late last time and she need only lay closer early here to take the opener. (5) CHOCOLATEMILKTOAST was up against it moving first up as the pace accelerated. She is capable of better with a different trip. (4) TWIN B BETTY made a threatening move in an improved performance last time. She’s not out of this. (6) POSTMEDERNISM is interesting getting owner McClure to drive for the first time; consider for exotics.
Race 2 – Ontario Sired 2YO Fillies Grassroots Starters in 2019
(2) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP seems to lay over these and having Gingras down to drive is a bonus. She’s my Pick 5 single. (7) ARYA STARK was used up early last time at Grand River. She has some lines that make her interesting as a price possibility for the exotics. (10) RED RIVER JANE hasn’t hit the board in four starts but she is capable of better and she is another who could sneak onto the ticket at a price. (4) HIGHMOON SUNSHINE shows a 1:52 1/5 score in a race similar to this four starts back but her recent form is sketchy. If she rebounds, she should finish in the Super.
Race 3 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000
(7) MISTER MAGIC showed a bit of late interest in his most recent start and he gets Hudon back here; price play in a wide-open race. (6) VERO AMORE BI was expertly held together by driver Henry last week where he was clearly bumpy-gaited in a few spots. He’s the best horse, but hard to trust at odds-on. (8) A J DESTINY is in solid form and he should be a threat once again here. (1) EXPLOSIVE JET continues to roll along finishing 2nd through 5th almost every race; using underneath.
Race 4 – OSS Gold 2YO Colts and Geldings – **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(4) ANETO gets a slight nod here on the barn change in what should be an extremely contentious sires stake. (5) BETTORBUCKLEUP was over driven in the Battle of Waterloo and he locked wheels at the 1/2. He gets Macdonald back here and he is a contender vs. these. (6) EXAMINER HANOVER dodges perhaps the best 2YO colt on the continent in Tall Dark Stranger and this colt is sure to go better here; using. (7) NATIONAL SPORT was a strong winner last week and he merits a look here.
Race 5 – F&M 5YO and Younger NW 5 or $70,000 LT
(3) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION is likely taking a step down facing elders here after racing against some very strong sophomores. She gets top call. (7) TWIN B TIPSTER is simply too sharp to ignore in this spot; using. (1) KYLIE SEELSTER produced a vicious backside brush to win a Grassroots last time, but history shows she gets driven more conservatively in these types of races. (2) BETTER SINGLE has had some issues recently, but she is capable with her best.
Race 6 – NW 3 (F&M5) or $54,000 (F&M $65,000) LT (F&M $65,000 LT)
(5) FINALLY FOUND AWAY beat similar last week and he should be tough here right back; call to repeat. (1) FASHION RACHEL was game in defeat to the choice and perhaps she could turn the tables with a different trip here. (3) CAVIARS TRIUMPH was a winner in his first start for new connections despite missing some time. He is worth using underneath here. (2) CHEATALOTPOV figures to be closing for a slice.
Race 7 – F&M NW $25,000 L5 or NW $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000
(3) KISSIN IN THE SAND holds a massive class edge on these and when Gingras sends her to the front early, this race should be over. (5) WITCH DALI will likely get sent for position by McNair leaving the gate and she can round out this Exacta. (7) ALEXIS FAITH is in solid form and she was beaten by a very sharp filly last time. Consider for exotics. (8) COUSIN MARY is one tough mare, but post does her no favors here; for the bottom of the Super.
Race 8 – OSS Gold 2YO Colts and Geldings
(8) TALL DARK STARNGER has his sights set on open stakes company and this sires stake should just be another stepping stone for him. (5) YS MATHIS has already won one of these and he should contend for a high placing. (4) BETTOR AT HIGHTIDE gets his nose back on the gate here; consider for Tris and Supers. (9) BEACH BLANKET BOOK was wiped out in the Battle of Waterloo when his wheel got hooked. He could crash the Super at a price here.
Race 9 – 3YO Fillies
(4) SO MUCH MORE uncorked one of the most impressive wide final-turn brushes of the meet last week when beating some salty elders. Off that mile, I’ll give her the call to dethrone the mighty (6) BODICEA, who is the obvious one to catch and beat. (5) POWERFUL CHRIS and (3) SUNNY DEE will be contending too in a short but stacked field of sophomore pacing fillies.
Race 10 – (4) LADY FINETUNE was right there racing in this class last week and she can start a new win streak right here. (3) CHARMBO BRIE roared up to win using one of her typical sub-28 kickers; using in the Late Pick 4. (2) JUST MY SHADOW is an obvious threat here having just missed from post 10 last time. (9) SAULSBROOK JESSIE is developing a knack for having a nose for the wire. She could do again at a price if she can overcome this post. (8) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY is unpredictable but capable on her best. This is a Pick 4 spread leg for me.