Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 7/27 Analysis
Best Bet: SHOWER PLAY (2nd)
Spot Play: FINA PATINA (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4/3/2,4,6/1,2,5/1,3,8 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,5/1,3,8/1,2,5,9/4 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,5,8/4,5/2,5,6/5,6,7 = $54
MEET STATS: 229 - 670 / $1,379.80 BEST BETS: 36 - 61 / $128.20
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 58 / $138.00
Race 1
(4) BLAZING TRAIL exploded late to break his maiden in style last time and he is a likely repeater here. (3) STEUBEN HANOVER took all the money and was a solid second to the choice. This could be a two-horse battle to the wire between these two. (5) SPEEDY DUNCAN made a couple of moves in his debut in a decent effort and he should make the ticket again here. (6) SMART AS HILL is another who made a couple of moves in that race that's in with a chance here.
Race 2
(3) SHOWER PLAY drifted way out last week, but she was still pacing a :26 4/5 kicker when chasing the fastest three-year-old pacing filly in Ontario Sires Stakes history. She should bounce back here. (6) SHEZAREALDEAL was solid racing first up and firing home quickly. She is in excellent form right now. (5) EXHILARATED should be a speed threat again and stick around for a slice. (2) ACTION MAJESTY steps up while improving but these are much tougher; smaller share predicted.
Race 3
(6) ABSYNTHE HANOVER - a $140K Harrisburg buy - goes for top connections and she could pop at a price here at first asking starting out in OSS Gold company. (2) HP TITANIA RUNNER was great in her debut and she is the one to beat here. (4) TEDDYS LITTLEANGEL steps up off a nice Grassroots win but with the move she showed in the third 1/4, she likely fits here. (9) GIVING IT ALL will likely blast again, but she is sure to face some heat earlier in this mile.
Race 4
(5) CENALTA CALL GIRL was too far out of it last week, but she still fired home in :26 2/5 to nail 2nd. She'll be hard to hold off here if she's in striking range at the head of the lane. (2) COLOR ENVY wasn't far behind the choice and she should offer a better price; using. (1) AZURE SEELSTER was 2nd to the choice three starts back and she can be a factor in this spot. (4) KLOOF STREET is often on the edges but rarely wins. She can take another slice here.
Race 5
(3) UNDEFIABLE was live but too far back last time. Henry should be more aggressive here. (1) SPORTY SONG was a sharp winner two back then blew up in the Grassroots. If she behaves, she should be a big player here. (7) MY BABY GIRL is a well-related homebred who has some upside; consider for exotics. (2) PRIVACY HANOVER needs more stamina late, but she can stick around for a share in this field.
Race 6
(2) MERCEDES TALMA - a $100K Lexington buy - is a 1/2-sister to $1.49 million earner Charmed Life and if she stays flat here, she should figure. (5) PETRO HALL comes off a good effort in a Gold race and she should be a top contender here. (1) WITCHES N ANGELS gave it a good try first up last time and she could do with a better trip here. (8) HP BRUXELLES trotted a quick final 1/4 in her latest qualifier and she's another that should be a factor if she stays trotting.
Race 7
(4) FINA PATINA goes for Moreau/Roy with a race two back that puts her right there with these; top call. (2) GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW has reached her best form and she will be a force here. (5) JAN is one that I get wrong every time, but she's too sharp to leave off Pick 4 bets here. (1) BLACK JACK PAT continues to race decently, and she should hit the ticket again here.
Race 8
(9) STRIP IT DOWN AS will be hard to hold off here if she produces a similar final 1/4 as the one she trotted at Hoosier Park; top call. (7) ANGIES LUCKY LADY was no match for a big winner but that was a good effort and she should be a player here. (1) CHAMPAGNE JANE also produced a good effort at Georgian on a night when the track was in poor shape; using. (3) DANCE HALL BABE was one of many that broke at Georgian when racing on a deep track. She can rebound here, and she should be a good price.
Race 9
(8) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY looked great on the track Monday night and he raced well vs. better. He may take these coast-to-coast. (5) PINK PISTOL adds Lasix after getting used up early from the worst post. She should improve sharply here. (1) TALBOTCREEK SUZIE raced much better last week and she should be in the thick of things turning for home here. (3) WINNING LYRIC is capable of producing a decent late kick on his best day and he could round out the Tri or Super here.
Race 10
(4) BETTORS UP finally found her best form last week and if she can replicate that type of effort here, she can double up. (5) FIREBBY A held well despite being involved in some hot early fractions. She is the one to beat. (3) SANDBETWEENURTOES was involved in that early tussle and she paid the price late. She can go better here. (2) BAROCKEY can share if she stays flat this time.
Race 11
(6) DOTTIE has been raced aggressively recently and this looks like a good spot for her to take a win racing on or near the lead; slight nod. (5) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY has no wins in the past two seasons but Henry came close with him last week and he gets the return drive here; using. (2) MANOFMANYIMAGES won in a class higher than this in May and dropping to the bottom here gives him a decent chance. (8) MIGHTY NICKY continues to burn money every week. He is a play against for me again here starting from a post that won't help.
Race 12
(5) HP PANDORA was never close enough to win last time in her first start for trainer Auciello. Look for Drury to get her involved earlier here. (6) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE changed strategy last time to no avail. She should be closing late vs. these this time. (7) FILLY FORTY SEVEN missed 18 days between starts when she shipped in and she had the worst post. A much better try is likely here. (1) LEAVING A LEGACY made two moves in a decent effort last time. She isn't without a chance here. (8) WHISTYS PARADISE can close some ground late here to get onto the High-5 ticket.
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