Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 7/20 Analysis
Best Bet: MACH DÉJÀ VU (11th)
Spot Play: CENALTA CALL GIRL (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,8,9/1,7/1,2,3/4,5,6/1,5,6 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,6/1,5,6/3,4,6/1,6 =$54
LATE PICK 4: 5,6,9,10/2,3/2,3,4,5/1 = $32
MEET STATS: 218 - 625 / $1,322.30 BEST BETS: 33 - 57 / $115.50
SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 54 / $131.00
Race 1
Interesting opener with a few options, but I'll side with (2) BEHOLDER who impressed in her Mohawk debut and gets a good post to work from here. (9) THE FIRST CHAPTER has looked great winning both his starts the hard way and a third straight here would be no surprise. (8) STENHOUSE HANOVER was a game 2nd behind a promising colt last time and he merits a look off that mile. (6) EX HANOVER figures to be closing belatedly again for a slice.
Race 2
(7) PERCY BLUE CHIP lands in a spot where she can be the boss here; top call. (1) WRITE ME A SONG set a new Clinton track record for sophomore pacing winning the Kin Pace and she looks like the main threat to the choice. (6) BIG THONG was 2nd to the best filly in the division two back and she should be closing late to at least make the Tri here. (3) PLAY THE BELL can get a good following trip here and sneak into the exotics.
Race 3
(2) MONI JUSTICE gets a short field and an inside post for her third start back and she can swoop these late if close enough at the top of the lane. (1) BLONDE MAGIC will likely set the pace again, but she really had no excuse last time other than her trotting an ordinary final 1/4. (3) CANTABERNET is another helped by the short field who can take this with the right trip. (4) VENUS DUHARAS seems to land in a race with few leavers so he may last longer than he has been racing near the front here.
Race 4
(5) CENALTA CALL GIRL gets Roy back here and note she took a life's mark two starts back with him at the controls; top call. (6) NEON MOON is right there every week and she'll win another one soon. (4) PEARL BLUE CHIP gets hammered at the windows every week. She's capable, but not one I'd take a short price on here. (8) ASKMYSECRETARY has 10 slices in 17 races this year. Expect more of the same here.
Race 5
(6) SKYHIGH AMBITION raced tough in defeat in her OSS Gold debut and she gets a great post to work from here; slight nod. (5) BETTER SINGLE converted at short odds in a sharp debut and she is a multi-race must-use for me. (1) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP disappointed at odds-on, but she can rebound here and wouldn't be a surprise in this spot. (4) SHESONEHOTWRITER should be closing late to make the ticket.
Race 6
(6) BLACK JACK PAT was in too deep last time and she succumbed to a 26 4/5 third 1/4 assault. She fits much better here and can bounce back in this spot. (4) CASINO CLASSIC showed late interest twice in a row against two very good fillies. She's in with an upset chance here. (3) MANHATTAN AGAIN figures to be forwardly-placed here and there's no Kendall Seelster to tangle with; using. (2) JAN steps up off a perfect trip win; small share predicted.
Race 7
(1) DEB fired sub-28 opening and closing quarters in her winning debut, which is a sign of a very sharp horse; call to repeat. (6) CRISP MANE was flying late last time and she is a top contender here. (2) BLOSSOM ONTHEBEACH steps up to the Gold level coming off an impressive debut win in the Grassroots; using. (4) SOFT WIND HANOVER was deftly steered by McNair last time, but also had some luck to win that one. I'll use her underneath here.
Race 8
(5) POWERFUL CHRIS was so dominant in her debut vs. easier that this step up may not deter her from doubling up. (9) DISTURBED HANOVER made a big, sustained move to win a Gold last time and she's the one to beat here. (6) CAFE SOCIETY may be better stalking and she could revert to that style here which could lead to a better placing. (10) SUMMER CHARM is another to consider for the Pick 4 and her price could add some value.
Race 9
(2) SHOWER PLAY is a Grand Circuit winner and the current leader of this division. She's so sharp that I won't try to beat her in this spot. (3) KENDALL SEELSTER has recaptured her best form in her past two and if she brings her A game to this tilt, she could provide a stern challenge. (5) SUDDEN PASSING is sharp too, but she usually gets beat when she faces the choice. (4) QUINTS DREAM is a nice filly who is developing quickly. She could add some value to the exotics here.
Race 10
(2) P L HURRICANE is one of three mares dropping from the top class here. She should get an aggressive Henry steer; top call. (3) AMERICAN SARA almost won a Mares Preferred two back and she rates highly here. (4) ARTISTIC MADISON is the third class-dropper who clearly also has a decent shot here. I'll use all three in this Pick 4. (5) BAROCKEY has hit her best stride and if there is one that will upset the top three here, it's her.
Race 11
(1) MACH DEJA VU wheels right back in the same class on short rest looking to double up and he should be formidable. (7) MACH MESSIER should leave here on the class drop and he's a threat. (4) SPEEDLING also drops and he is another who should be racing near the front that has a shot. (9) THINK ON IT disappointed as chalk four days ago in a race won by the choice. A smaller share is likely for him here. (6) LATE NIGHT is another who is a good one to use underneath in this spot.
[DRF HARNESS NEWSLETTER: Sign Up for the FREE DRF Harness Newsletter. Fresh content and insights delivered each Thursday.]