Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 7/13 Analysis
Best Bet: BETTER UP (1st)
Spot Play: BATTLE STRONG (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2/3,6,7/2,7/2,5,7/3,4,8,10 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,7/3,4,8,10/1,3/2,10 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 1,4,5/4,5,6/1,2,7/2 = $27
MEET STATS: 204 - 581 / $1,239.50 BEST BETS: 31 - 53 / $109.00
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 50 / $118.70
Race 1
(2) BETTER UP paced a 26 3/5 third 1/4 in his third qualifier on July 6th which should have him perfectly primed for this debut effort; top call. (6) KENNY JOE has paced two impressive miles at Sarnia and while he will need to drop some time here, he appears to be a threat off those efforts. (7) CENTURY FARROH is related to a couple of decent racehorses and goes for connections that can have one ready; using underneath. (5) MANTARIO made up significant ground late in his debut, but he obviously needs to be much closer to have a shot here.
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Race 2
(6) CAPTAIN KOINE is by a first-crop sire that has had some success already out of a dam that took a mark of 1:50 flat over Mohawk. Her second qualifier signals readiness; top call. (7) MACS POWER is a homebred out of a dam that produced several good ones and he goes for top connections. He's a Pick 5 must-use for me. (3) CAPITANO ITALIANO had a tougher trip in his second race and a different result. He's in the mix here, but may have his hands full with the top two. (4) LUZIANA had a good debut race and he can share here.
Race 3
(7) BATTLE STRONG paced his back 1/2 in 54 3/5 in his debut and he should get a more aggressive steer this time with that race under his belt; top call. (2) BETTORS ACCOUNT - a $47K Lexington buy - is a 1/2 to some solid winners and he gets Roy for his debut race; using. (5) TWIN B FEARLESS had a couple of decent qualifiers in Ottawa and he could grab a slice here at a price. (9) CUSTOM CUT performed well for McClure in his June 30th qualifier; consider for exotics.
Race 4
(5) BEACH GODDESS was passed by a top class filly last time, but that was a very good effort and she catches some stakes horses here that may be in no hurry early in this conditioned race. I'll give her the nod. (2) SUDDEN PASSING and (7) BIG THONG are obviously top sophomore fillies - at least locally - but it's hard to gauge intent when they pop up in a race like this between stakes starts. (4) JUST HER LUCK took lots of money last week and had little pop. Maybe she'll show up here and hit the ticket.
Race 5
(8) TWENTYONE NINE paced a big back 1/2 in his lone qualifier and I expect a more aggressive steer here; top call. (3) VILLAGE CHAMP has one sneaky-good qualifier which makes me think he'll be ready to rock here. (4) YS SUNSHINE is related to a couple of decent racehorses and he too looks ready to produce immediately. (10) HOT TAKE finished well in his lone qualifier and he could crash the exotics at a price here.
Race 6
(1) VEYRON should start better here which puts him in the picture to notch his initial 2018 win. (3) PERFETTO will get hammered at the windows of his last start, but his gait issues make him very risky at a short price. (2) ILLUSIONEESTA is obviously capable vs. these, but she is also between stakes starts which is always a concern when making wagering decisions in these types of races. (4) VENUS DUHARAS should contend for a slice racing close up here.
Race 7
(10) SILAS SEELSTER gets the right driver to blast off from the outer post here and with the speed he showed in his qualifiers, he may take this group all the way on the lead. (2) DA DELIGHTFUL was live at the end of his debut mile and he should be a contender here. (1) DECEPTION SEELSTER improved in his second qualifier - especially his late speed - and he's useable here. (5) SAUBLE PLAY raced okay against a very good colt last time and he could better this placing.
Race 8
(5) MITTNITE DELIGHT closed mildly into a fast back 1/2 in his debut, now Moreau takes over and a more aggressive try seems certain. (7) SPORTS HERO came up against a colt who paced the fastest two-year-old mile of the year in Canada so far. Expect him to be in the mix here. (2) JEFFS JOURNEY is worth a look on breeding alone. (6) CLASSIFIEDMATERIAL made a smart move to win his debut and he may be able to grab a piece of this.
Race 9
(4) AGEDCHEDAR HANOVER - a $10K Lexington buy - is a 1/2-brother to two $300K earners. In his first qualifier he was 2nd to a horse that has paced in 1:52. He could be ready to go much faster here. (5) JMS DELIGHT looks obvious on paper, but he may get overbet off that Pocono qualifier. I'll use him in the late Pick 4, but wouldn't bet him to win at odds-on. (1) TREASURES PIRATE goes for a barn that sends them ready and he should be dangerous starting from the inside. (9) BETTER MOONON OVER had a decent debut. He can hit the ticket here again.
Race 10
(5) WITCH DALI is in top form and can repeat here with a decent trip. (4) FIREBBY A provided cover to the choice last time when she took all the air. A different trip here could see her turn the tables. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES paced a 26 3/5 third 1/4 then wobbled late. She is another in with a shot here although the choice has won two of her past three starts. (3) AMERICAN SARA followed the choice home last week but couldn't get by. She will likely land on the edges here.
Race 11
(7) GENESSEE SEELSTER paced a 55 3/5 back 1/2 in his lone qualifier. He can pop at first asking here. (1) KEYSTONE CONCRETE improved sharply in his second qualifier; using. (2) FOLLOWYOURDESTINY paced a 27 2/5 second quarter to take command in his July 3rd qualifier, so you know he's got some zip. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (8) CHIEFS BEACH was third behind a nice colt in his debut and he figures for a piece of this.
Race 12
(2) BACKSTREET SHADOW missed a month between starts, but it didn't matter. He should be even sharper here returning quicker; top call. (4) TALBOTCREEKWHISKY has a great record and he requalified nicely for this. He should be a threat. (6) MIGHTY MACH is in the mix here, but he will likely need to drop time to beat the top two. I'll use him underneath. (9) GRANTMEAWISH is tough when he makes front, but my gut tells me he isn't leaving this time; small share predicted. (7) FAMILY SPORTS fires home under 27 seconds most weeks. He could better this placing if he can get in range earlier.
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