Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 7/12 Analysis

Meet Stats - 97 – 332 / $479.90 (-$176.10)

Best Bets – 15– 30/ $42.50 (-$17.50)

Spot Plays – 5 – 30 / $21.30 (- $38.70)

Best Bet – FORBIDDEN TRADE – (3RD)

Spot Play – MANHATTAN AGAIN (6TH)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Pick 5 – 4,5,7/5,6,7/5/1,3,7,8/3,4,6 = $21.60

Early Pick 4 – 1,3,7,8/3,4,6/2/2,4,7,9 = $48

Late Pick 4 – 4,5/2,3,4/3,10/1,4,6 = $36

Can Am Pick 4 – 3,4,9,10/2,6,8,9/1,4,6/2,7,9 = $28.80

Race 1 – NW5 (F&M7) or $88K LT – GTD $50K Pick 5

(7) TAX SAVINGS was an easy winner in this class two starts back and she may get to ride the pocket of (4) HEY LIVVY, who ripped off a career-best mile last time but she was racing over a lightning-fast strip that heavily-favored front-enders. I’ll give the former the nod to upset. (5) BIZET is showing the signs recently and he could upset with the right trip. (8) ALPHA SEELSTER raced well to beat easier but I see him as a fringe player here.

Race 2 – F&M CLM HDCP $10K to $15K

(5) SOUTHWIND ION comes up tagged here and chances are she will get claimed so she will probably get sent on a speed mission by Drury. (7) ALWAYS A ROSE raced tough on the engine to just miss and she is improving every week; using. (6) TWENTY THREE RED was all out to eke out a win last week. She is capable but I wouldn’t take a short price. (3) FINA PATINA took lots of action at the windows last week and showed little. Maybe she’ll improve second time out for this barn.

Race 3 – Three Year Olds

This is a race that (5) FORBIDDEN TRADE simply shouldn’t lose, but he is going to go off at 1/5 likely. (2) TRAVEL WINNER has only missed the board once this year and he is most likely to complete the exacta. (3) JUMPSHOT and (4) TRIX AND STONES will fight it out for minor awards.

Race 4 – CLM HDCP $15K to $18K for NW $75K LT - $50K GTD Pick 4

(1) MATTS TUITION can stalk and pounce here on what may be some winded leaders late with speed lined up to his outside. (7) BRANDON HANOVER has raced tough most of the year and his last start was very good; using. (3) STELIOS dug in when it counted, and he is another who should be a big factor here. (8) STATE OF PLAY powered home to win when claimed but he may need to pass them all this time; your call.

Race 5 – F&M NW $6,500 L5 or NW $13,500 L10 Ae; OPT CLM $15K

(6) P L HURRICANE drops, gets one of the best posts and looks to pop. She gets a slight nod over (3) FOLLOWTHEWIND N who comes off a sharp try where she fell just short. (4) BUTTERMILK HANOVER also drops and moves inside and she’s capable at this level; using. (9) HELLO LOVE failed at 2 to 5 at this level two starts back. She can come on late for a share and add some value to the exotics here.

Race 6 – F&M NW $3KL5 or $7K L10

(2) MANHATTAN AGAIN paced her final 3/4 in 1:22 flat last time, so you know she’s sharp. She also gets to drop to the bottom here and she should convert as chalk. (5) PRETTY HOT often pops at a price when she drops to this level – like she did two starts back – and she is a potential upsetter. (3) MISS MADY raced well at this level two starts back and she can share here. (4) SHE LIGHTS OUT couldn’t convert as chalk at this level last time and this looks tougher; small share predicted.

Race 7 – NW $3,100 L5 or $7K L10

(2) KENDRAS COCO wheels back in three days after breaking at the start on Tuesday. Perhaps McClure will have more luck with her this time; slight nod in a head scratcher of a race. (9) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY is sure to get put into play off the gate and he may sneak a breather in here then forget to stop on the lead; using. (4) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY moves back inside and notice he was even money at this level two starts back when starting from a decent post. He’s capable vs. these. (7) PRESQUILLE will mount a late charge but the winner may already be decided at that point; using underneath only.

Race 8 – F&M 5YO and Younger NW5 or $80K LT

(5) LOVELY DONNA went a big trip when second to big favorite Powerful Chris last time and she looks best here. (4) VILLAGE JOULES was behind the choice then she faced some salty older mares and wasn’t disgraced. She has upset potential here. (7) SPORTS FLIX comes out of the same race as the top two and she should go better here, too. (6) BETTER SINGLE can come on late to take a small share.

Race 9 – F&M Preferred

(2) WINDSUN GLORY took a shuffle last week. She projects to get a better trip up front here and she can lodge an upset over (4) KENDALL SEELSTER who will get pounded at the windows here. She is obviously a top contender but no lock. (3) SHOWER PLAY is starting to put things together quickly and she’s another who can win this given the right trip. (7) WITCH DALI will likely revert to closing tactics here and pass a few of these late.

Race 10 – NW3 (F&M5) or $40K (F&M $50K) LT – Can Am Pick 4 Leg 1

(3) KNIGHT ANGEL trotted a big mile when third to Forbidden Trade and he should take beating vs. these. (10) SOUTHWIND CASHA has been lights out for three straight starts and she merits Pick 4 inclusion ever starting from out there. (4) MISS JUBILEE HILL raced tough last week and she’s not out of this. (9) ALL WRAPPED UP is capable but may use this as another prep for the next Gold race.

Race 11 – F&M NW $25K L5 AE: NW $175K LT or OPT CLM $60K – Can Am Pick 4 Leg 3

(1) DOUBLE A MINT races back in seven days after missing three weeks prior to her last start and she gets Roy back in the driver’s seat here; top call. (6) POWERFUL CHRIS is a capable sophomore but with bigger stakes fish to fry she will likely be tripped out here. That doesn’t mean she can’t win but demand a price. (4) SANDBETWEENURTOES has recaptured her best form and she’s in with a decent chance here. (7) THE JOY LUCK CLUB steps up off a sharp win but I prefer to use her underneath here. (2) KLOOF STREET can sit a trip and make it onto the High 5 here.