Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 6/29 Analysis
Best Bet: A ROD HALL (2nd)
Spot Play: MISSION THREE (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,3/6/3,8,9/5,7,9,10/3,4,7,8,10 = $36
EARLY PICK 4: 5,7,9,10/3,4,7,8,10/3,5/4 = $40
LATE PICK 4: 8,9/1,2,8/2,6/1,4,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 167 - 496 / $1,049.50 BEST BETS: 27 - 45 / $91.90
SPOT PLAYS: 17 - 43 / $101.80
Race 1
(2) LIFELONG DREAM was nailed late by a sharp rival last time despite pacing a strong final 1/4. She should be tough in here. (3) OVATION SEELSTER finished behind the choice then, but she gets a much better post here and should be a threat. (1) PRECISION HANOVER couldn't go with a winner that paced a big back 1/2 last time, but she's in with a chance here. (6) PROTECT BLUE CHIP can sneak into the exotics here starting from a good post.
Race 2
(6) A ROD HALL got hammered on the class drop last time, but he was never in the race after starting from post 10. By finishing only 5th in that race, he gets to drop again, and he should have no problem with this group. (1) GLENCOVE ZANI is erratic, but if he stays flat he should hit the board here. (7) WAIKIKI HANOVER has been racing well out of town and he can stick around for a share here. (3) APLOMB HANOVER gets away from LMC Mass Oak here and he's capable of a better try.
Race 3
(8) JM JACK OF HEARTS made an incredible recovery last week to almost get the win and he is one of the sharpest horses on the grounds right now. I'll give him the nod here expecting a decent price because of the presence of (9) WESTERN PASSAGE, who will likely get overbet due to recent company lines but is obviously capable vs. these. (3) LUCKY SPORT took a shuffle last time but he's likely to be put into this race and he's another possibility for Pick 5 tickets here. (5) GOLD RUSH beat easier for his first win of the season, but this is a tougher task; small share predicted.
Race 4
(9) GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW had an okay seasonal debut now she may be put on 'go' at the start here by a driver who was hot on Tuesday. I'll stab here in a race where I don't love anything. (7) NASTY RUMOUR raced much better last time which could be a tipoff that a top try is coming soon. (5) CAROLINA CHERRY missed some time, but she adds Lasix for a barn that continues to run hot; using. (10) KLOOF STREET can be a pace threat here, even from out there, and she merits a look with the driver change to Henry.
Race 5
(4) SHADOW MOON has been facing much better recently and he should be primed for a big try here in this Grassroots dash. (8) GIDEON SEELSTER is consistent and improving; using. (3) PHANTOM SEELSTER took a shuffle last time and he's another that fits in here. (7) POKERFACE BLUE CHIP faced a sharp foe who came right back and scorched Grand River in 1:52 1/5. This gelding is worth including at a price here.
Race 6
(5) MAINTENANCE MAN has been one of The Stable's best horses training down and he should be primed for a big debut try. (3) DO YA THINK had a nice debut effort and he should be a threat here. (1) EXCALIBER SEELSTER also has an experience edge and was only 3/4 of a length away at the finish of his debut. He can share again here. (7) KEYSTONE PRESTIGE goes for top connections and is worth a look for the exotics here.
Race 7
(4) MISSION THREE missed 19 days, then went a long trip on the rim in what should be a perfect prep for this OSS race; top call. (7) STOCK is another that seems primed for a better try here and his price should be good. (3) BO MACH adds Lasix and McNair. I'll use him underneath. (6) JOHNATHAN QUICK goes for a barn that is always in these Grassroots races with a chance; consider for exotics.
Race 8
(5) LAY LADY LAY has become more aggressive recently and she drops back to a better spot here; slight nod. (2) ARTISTIC MADISON dropped and popped, and she stays at a similar level. She's an exacta factor here. (3) LYONS RIVER PRIDE missed a week, but she lands in a better spot here and is a threat. (1) REQUEST FOR PAROLE is always around the money and she should take a slice here again.
Race 9
This race looks primed for a deep closer to come late and steal, so I'll use (8) GISELE TREELANE on top. She was overbet last week and moves to a worse post, so maybe the price goes up here, too. (9) FONDUE is another who should be passing rivals late; using. (5) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL steps up off a sharp effort and she's not out of this although she may be hurt by conflicting speed types. (1) BELLA PALAZZO is another that can close late who could be dangerous at a price.
Race 10
(8) YACHT SEELSTER raced well enough to win last time but he was nailed by a rival who absolutely flew the final 1/16th. He should be tough here. (1) AVALON HANOVER comes off a nice win and he should get a decent trip here; using. (2) FAMILY SPORTS was on a good roll but got sick. He's not out of this, but he could come up a bit short here. (4) BIG TALKING MAN has been racing well vs. lesser but some of these should prove to be much tougher; smaller share predicted.
Race 11
(6) PEARL BLUE CHIP paced a 55 1/5 middle 1/2 last time on route to a big win. She should repeat here. (2) SOS BAMBIE Has been racing well for weeks and on paper looks like the only real threat to the choice. (1) MACHNHOPE faced better last time, but the top two will likely be tough for her to deal with here, too; smaller share predicted. (3) BEACH GODDESS gets a much better post here and she can close late to hit the Super ticket.
Race 12
(1) SHEZAREALDEAL drops slightly after trying to keep up to a winner that was dropping from the Mares Preferred last time. She should be prominent here. (4) REGAL LUCK is sharp and dangerous in this spot; using. (7) P L KAHLUAA is improving every start and she's not out of this although the top two hold post advantages. (3) BOURBON SEELSTER and (10) WHISTYS PARADISE are two closers to include on the bottom of horizontal wagers.
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