Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 5/3 Analysis
Best Bet: A YANKEE FEELN (5th)
Spot Play: SMOKE MONKEY (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 1,3,6/2,7/2,4/1,6,7/1 = $7.20
Early Pick 4 - 1,6,7/1/2,4,6/1,2,4 = $27
Late Pick 4 - 5/2,3,4/1,2,5/3,4,6,10 = $36
Can Am Pick 4: 1,2,5/1,6/3,4,6,10/1,5,7,8 = $19.20
MEET STATS: 293 - 938 / $1,708.20 (-$165.80)
BEST BETS: 39 - 86 / $129.10 (-$35.80)
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 87 / $138.40 (-$35.60)
Race 1
(3) XELENE BAYAMA stepped up last week and powered away to a solid win. These don't appear to be much tougher; call to repeat. (1) HURRIED ROMANCE will take plenty of action on the class drop into claimers and she's hard to leave off the Pick 5 ticket here. (6) PROTECT BLUE CHIP is always capable but often coming too late. The short field helps her; using. (5) ONLY ONE STAR drops, and she can take a slice if she stays pacing this time.
Race 2
(2) TEDDYSLITTLEANGEL obviously has more important races than this on her schedule this year, but she looks sharp enough to win at first asking if the intent is there. (7) COLLATERAL BEAUTY makes her first start as a 4-year-old and she looks ready to roll, too; using. (5) Y C BROADWAY was too far back for most of the mile last time. With that tightener out of the way, I expect improvement here. (4) KUIL DEVA is always a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 3
(4) DOUBLE A MINT shoots for seven straight wins in the top class and while she'll have to deal with sharp invader (2) SEASWIFT JOY N, she is so good right now that she might be up to it. The latter won several legs of the Blue Chip Matchmaker series before drawing the impossible 8-hole in the final and she is an obvious serious threat here. (1) OUTLAW FIREBALL will likely look to trip-out here and she can hit the board. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES is in good form but she may be fighting for scraps this time.
Race 4
(1) PAZZA HANOVER closed nicely in her sophomore debut and this looks like a good spot for her; top call. (6) MANHATTAN NIGHT has been sharp in both 2019 starts and she moves from the worst post to the best starting slot here. She should threaten. (7) THREE ACCOUNTS gets Roy while riding a win streak and she could co a long way on the front end. (2) TEQUILA PARTY comes in off a sharp win, but I doubt she be left alone on the lead this time; small share predicted.
Race 5
(1) A YANKEE FEELN took a new life's mark in his first start off the claim and now he moves to the big track where he should be tough racing on or near the lead. (2) FAMILY SPORTS is capable of better and he gets a more aggressive teamster here, so I'll use him in the exacta. (9) WHO SAID NOT TO passed horses in the fastest quarter of the race, which can be a profitable angle; using. (10) BRANDON HANOVER is hot but starting from out there he may be looking at a smaller share.
Race 6
(6) LYONS HEDGEABET was raced conservatively last time after missing three weeks. She can beat these if she gets put into the race. (4) OUR VACATION keeps rolling along and winning races and he knows how to steal breathers; using. (2) VINES TO HEAVEN has already shown she can win in this class and she should be the main danger getting class and post relief. (5) DEB is capable, but this conditioned race could be a tightener for the Grand Circuit winner.
Race 7
This is a tough dash. I'll take a swing with (2) PICKLES ON TOP, who gets post relief here, won in this class nine starts back and should offer a great price. (4) THE GIRLS OF IMAGE was closer last time and she's another that may get overlooked in the wagering; using. (1) JET TO THE BEACH may get an easy early lead this time which could make a huge difference; beware. (3) KAYS SHADOW was used up early last time and she tired late. A better trip can net her a slice.
Race 8
(5) SMOKE MONKEY sticks out here having won easily in this class last week; call to repeat. (7) OLE JACK MAGIC gets Roy and races at a lower class than he was before going to Flamboro for a start where he drew poorly and showed little. He has the potential to wake up here. (10) HELLO CHIPPER has been going great for Cullen, but this class is tougher, and post does him no favors; using underneath. (3) HONOR ABOVE ALL can follow along and take another share.
Race 9
(4) SLY ELEANOR N gets a short field here which means she should be in striking range when they turn for home and she has been tough to hold off recently; top call. (2) WATCH MY LUCK was racing first-up pressing a strong late pace and she stuck around for a good share. She can take this if she works out a better trip. (3) TAJMEALLOVER gets away from the sharpest mare on the circuit and gets class relief, but she's missed four weeks and I'll try to beat her in this spot. (1) THIS DRAGON ROCKS should take at least a small share starting from a good post as she has been sharp recently.
Race 10
Tough race to kick off the Can Am Pick 4. I'll try (2) AINT THREE OK on top on the class drop and the move inside. (1) ROYALTYWESTHO was good last week starting from an outer post and she should be in the mix throughout here. (5) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE gets to drop after missing a check and moving to the middle of the gate she should be more prominent. (8) ROLL WITH SPARKY was flying late last week and she can close for a slice again.
Race 11
(10) LEADER TONIGHT was solid in defeat last week to a rival who has won two straight since dropping into claimers. He will be tough if he clears early. (3) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS disappointed last week but he gets a driver change that could make a difference here; using. (6) FOX VALLEY B GUMP raced better when dropped in for a tag and he gets a good post here. I'll use him in the Can Am Pick 4. (4) ILL BE BACK drops into a claimer and he should improve. He is another who can win this wide-open finale. (9) UNPRECEDENTED faces much easier here, but he needs to find more speed. I'll use him underneath.