Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 5/24 Analysis
Best Bet: O NARUTAC PERFETTO (8th)
Spot Play: ROYAL RENEGADE (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 – 5,6,7,8/3,6,7/3,6,7/4,6/4,8 = $28.80
Early Pick 4 – 4,6/4,8/8,9,10/3,7,8 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 6/6,7/3,4,7,10/2,5,9 = $24
Can Am Pick 4 – 3,4,7,10/7,8,9,10/2,5,9/4,7 = $19.20
FINAL WINTER MEET STATS: 331 - 1044 / $1,927.20 (-$160.80)
BEST BETS: 45 - 96 / $157.50 (-$34.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 96 / $168.40 (-$23.60)
Race 1
(8) SHADOW OF LINDY was part of an early pace that saw an unusual number of early lead changes last time and he got shuffled. Dropping in for a tag here gives him a chance to wire these; slight nod. (7) L WEATHER B races best at this level and he could get a great trip if he leaves hard to get position. (6) BARN ONE is hard to leave out because that will be the night he rolls by them all in the lane. I'll put him on my Pick 5 ticket. (5) LEADER TONIGHT gets a good post to work from here, and he should be in the mix for at least a share.
Race 2
Interesting race with some high-profile sophomore fillies returning. (7) HELLO LOVE was razor-sharp last week, and the others will have their hands full if she can repeat that effort. (6) POWERFUL CHRIS looks ready to snap off a good mile off the bench, and her regular driver is back from injury; using. (3) BEAUTYONTHEBEACH is obviously talented and fast enough to win this. Intent will play a big role in the outcome of this race. (1) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP was better earlier in the season last year; consider for exotics.
Race 3
(7) ROYAL RENEGADE shipped in from the prairies and won immediately while up in class at London on Monday. Team Cullen comes right back looking to strike while the iron is hot; top call. (3) P L IDAHO couldn't seal the deal last week as he was picked off in the very last stride. That was a big effort though, and he is a contender again. (6) PRINCE GIOVANNI could be in the best spot if he leaves and tucks in behind the top two early; using. (4) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP should be closing late again to take a share.
Race 4
(4) JUST MY SHADOW drops back to a level where she has already won, and this company should be much more to her liking; top call. (7) KICKIN COWGIRL also drops and she is worth a long look here. (8) TEQUILA PARTY gets McClure and if he sends her early, she could go a long way on the lead. (9) LOVELY DONNA was nailed only late last time, but from this post, she could get roughed up. I'll use her underneath.
Race 5
(4) JAY EYE EM was live at Flamboro Sunday night, but he was beaten into submission by some rivals that were insistent on battling him early. He did well to finish a strong second. I'll take him to knock off (8) TYGA HANOVER - who is sure to be a big chalk off his runaway win last week - who may slow just enough late to get caught. (6) BETTER THAN SOME got closer last week, and he could sneak into the exotics at a price here. (2) BOYS TURN's race two starts back could get him into the Super here if he can come up with a similar effort.
Race 6
(8) SPECTRE wasn't far behind two that both came back to win, and the winner of that race took an OSS Gold event. I'll give this gelding the nod in a race where he should bring a square price. (9) WILL CAN GO had three beasts in front of him in his May 17th qualifier. That he was beaten 12 3/4 lengths doesn't concern me and he is a contender here. (10) MAGICAL WINNER K is on a good roll, but I won't take a short price on him from the 10-hole here. (2) OCEANVIEW DEB is a good one to use on the bottom of Tri and Super bets.
Race 7
(8) DOVUTO HANOVER is as game as they come racing for Drury/Auciello and he'll have to be caught here. (3) ROLL WITH HOWIE fits this class like a glove and he should be right there again. (7) WHO SAID NOT TO could upset here if he can work out a better trip, but I'll use underneath in this spot. (2) DARCEE N is always around the money and he is hard to leave off Tri and Super tickets.
Race 8
(6) O NARUTAC PERFETTO gets major class relief here and it's hard imagining him getting beat in this spot. (5) BATTING STATS could be sent on a speed mission by McNair here and he might be the one the choice has to hunt down. (8) ABSOLUT SEELSTER raced okay in the slop last time and the winner of that race has already come back to win; consider for the exotics. (4) SETANTA draws much better here and he should be able to sneak into the Tri or Super.
Race 9
(7) SEASWIFT JOY N is too sharp to go against right now but expect another miniscule price. (6) DOUBLE A MINT lacked room late which likely cost her second last week. If anyone is going to turn the tables on the choice, it's her. (4) COUSIN MARY raced tough on the rim uncovered last week and she should be a factor for at least a share here. (5) SANDBETWEENURTOES looks next best and she should land in the Super somewhere.
Race 10
I'll take a swing for the fences here with (10) ABUELITA HANOVER, who goes for a hot barn in a spot where she fits. The only question mark is how she will be raced from this post. (7) LADY DRIVER drops a level after breaking last time and if she behaves she should be heard from here. (3) MANHATTAN NIGHT also drops one level and she figures against these; using. (4) RED RIVER JANE is consistent and she's another contender who could pop here with the right trip.
Race 11
(2) TAJMEALLOVER was flying late last week but she ran out of racetrack. Her post advantage over razor-sharp rival (9) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP may be what she needs to turn the tables. The latter is simply too sharp to ignore right now. (5) THIS DRAGON ROCKS raced tough last week, and she has been good for several weeks. She isn't without an upset chance here. (4) AZURE SEELSTER left and got shuffled then came back on to get a good share. She's in the exotics mix again here. (10) REIS STAR CROSS will be closing from far back and she could crack the exotics at a price.