Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 5/17 Analysis
Best Bet: LADY DRIVER (2nd)
Spot Play: SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 5,6,7/3,6/8,9/1,4,8/2,3,5 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 - 1,4,8/2,3,5/6,7/5,6,7 = $54
Late Pick 4 - 4,7,8/8/5,7,9/1,2,3,8 = $36
Cam Am Pick 4: 5,7,9/6/1,2,3,8/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10 = $19.20
MEET STATS: 326 - 1023 / $1,893.50 (-$150.20)
BEST BETS: 45 - 94 / $140.60 (-$30.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 94 / $168.40 (-$19.60)
Race 1
(5) CROCADILE CANYON projects to get a good trip racing near the front here - quite possibly in (7) DOVUTO HANOVER's pocket - and these two could be fighting it out to the wire late. The latter should clear quickly in this spot and that may make him tough if he can get a breather. (6) SECTIONLINE ROCK went a big trip to narrowly lose to the choice last time he raced in this class on April 8th and he should threaten here. (2) DARCEE N is always a good one to use underneath in Tri and Super bets.
Race 2
(6) LADY DRIVER was right there vs. stakes fillies last time and she should be prominent throughout this mile. (3) UNDEFIABLE was solid last year and trainer McIntosh typically sends them ready. I'll use her in the Pick 5. (1) ARRIVAL rallied past some battlers last time, but she could trip-out again here. (5) BIDFORA HUG takes many smaller shares. Consider using her underneath.
Race 3
(9) MYSTERY BET gets class relief and a return of his favorite driver here, and he could be a decent price starting from out there; top call. (8) ODDS ON AMETHYST is erratic but capable - especially at this level - beware. (1) MONTALBANO BI is a classy veteran who raced better last time. He could hit the ticket at a price. (2) OLE JACK MAGIC has a similar profile and he should be rallying to take a share vs. these.
Race 4
(8) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY roared home in a remarkable 25 2/5 in her winning debut as a 2-year old then encountered some gait issues in the fall of 2018. Her May 6th qualifier was excellent and the time to jump on her bandwagon is likely right now; top call. (1) SWIFT SALLY will rightfully take strong support here coming in undefeated and drawing inside. She's hard to leave off Pick 5 tickets. (4) BEACH BAR - like most Steacy pupils - came ready for action in her sophomore debut and I'll use her in the multis here. The barn is just too hot to ignore. (9) TEQUILA PARTY is in solid form and she may add some value to the exotics starting from out there.
Race 5
(3) WESTERN PHIL gets Budd's #1 driver Henry here and he will likely try to snap this gelding out of his slow start trend from his past three races. This driver change could be huge. (2) WHO SAID NOT TO raced tough last time in his season's debut, only tiring late. He can go forward off a race that he likely needed. (5) BARN ONE is going to trip-out and pass them all one time soon; maybe tonight? (10) BRANDON HANOVER is a logical contender here - even from out there - if he can stay flat this time.
Race 6
(6) DEB was interfered with when making a move on the turn last week. I'm not sure she could have won, but she'd have been closer. She fits well here and gets the nod. (7) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE drops and she should get put into play immediately at the start here; using. (1) PICKLES ON TOP was good last week beating a rival that she couldn't catch the week before, but I prefer to use her underneath in this spot. (3) CENALTA CALL GIRL isn't out of her element in this class and she can get involved and take a smaller share.
Race 7
(7) TAJMEALLOVER drops to a logical spot and he gets post relief, too. I look for Gagne to be much more aggressive in this spot. (6) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP came ready to play and she was no secret on the board. She should be tough right back. (5) AINT THREE OK will be closing again and she could be a good number in the cash leg of the early Pick 4. (9) SUNDAY AFTERNOON has been racing tough for weeks and she will probably get ignored at the windows again. You could plunge on worse bombs than her.
Race 8
(7) AVALANCHE HANOVER was sharp winning on the engine last week and he can double up here using the same approach. (8) JIMMY BE GOOD draws outside again but gets away from the 10-hole and the shorter field can make the difference for him; using. (4) PRINCE GIOVANNI does best when he leaves hard and gets position, and moving inside makes him a contender for the win here. (2) P L IDAHO is developing a good closing style and he steps up here, which is likely to try to protect him from a claim. He isn't out of this.
Race 9
(8) SEASWIFT JOY N was impressive in her first local start and any kind of a breather makes her very tough here. (7) DOUBLE A MINT moved too late - into the teeth of a 26 4/5 kicker - and she should get a more aggressive steer here which puts her in the mix. (5) OUTLAW FIREBALL never misses the board. Don't leave her off Tri tickets. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES has come around and she's another who should contend from close range here.
Race 10
(7) MISS MADY put up some big splits and almost held on three starts back when she last raced in this class. She should be tough here if she makes front early. (5) THE GIRLS OF IMAGE has found her best stride and she should be up on the pace again here. She may duel with the choice down the lane to decide it. (9) SHEAREALDEAL drops and gets Henry, who has been a good partner for her in the past; using. (2) DRAGON LADY ART should get a following trip just behind the leaders and emerge in the lane to take a slice.
Race 11
(3) ROLL WITH SPARKY raced tough vs. a class-dropping chalk last time and she should be a top contender here despite moving up one class. (8) WATCH MY LUCK drops and she stands a good chance to pop vs. these. (2) WHISTYS PARADISE was right with the choice last time and she is going to get there one of these weeks. (1) ROYALTYWESTHO is another who is racing well that could take this with a bit of racing luck. (4) HELLO LOVE got hammered at the windows last time and she came up flat, It's possible that she's just not the same mare that she was early last year when she was stacking wins. I'll play to beat her again.