Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 5/10 Analysis
Best Bet: SOUTHWIND AVENGER (6th)
Spot Play: SPORTS FLIX (2nd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 – 1,2,5,8/5/2,3,10/3,7,8/2,3,4 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 3,7,8/2,3,4/10/1,5,9 = $27
Late Pick 4 – 2,4,7/1,3,7/3,6,7/6,9 = $54
Can Am Pick 4 – 3,6,7/3,5/6,9/3,4,5,7,9 = $18
MEET STATS: 304 - 981 / $1,765.30 (-$194.70)
BEST BETS: 41 - 90 / $136.20 (-$36.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 91 / $153.30 (-$28.70)
Race 1
I don't think there's any doubt that (2) SORCERESS SEELSTER has the speed to contend here. The question with her is always gait, and Henriksen puts trotting hopples on here, so I'll give her the nod. (8) ROYAL ELITE goes for a red-hot barn that has been sending everything ready coming off layoffs; using. (5) SOUTHWIND CHROME was unlucky to only notch one win last year as he obviously has some talent. His 1:58 qualifier over a wet track rated three seconds off intrigues. (1) TRIX AND STONES faced some top company last year and he wasn't disgraced. This is a really good race that could go several ways.
Race 2
(5) SPORTS FLIX appears to be the most talented filly in here and if she is ready and the intent is there, she will be tough to beat. (3) ARRIVAL was tripped-out by Roy to win last time as she passed several battlers late, but if the top choice isn't on her toes she could get picked off by this rival. (8) APOTHIC can produce a good late burst on her best day; using underneath. (2) MANHATTAN NIGHT never misses a check and she should hit the ticket here racing from close range.
Race 3
(2) HELLO CHIPPER moves inside and off the worst post and he should get a much more aggressive steer in a race where he fits well; top call. (10) DOTTIE gets the Moreau/Roy switch here, which makes him a must-use for me, even from out there. (3) POLLAR HALL comes in off a sharp Flamboro win and he's not out of place here; consider at a price. (1) PRESQUILLE is showing some signs and he can close for a slice here.
Race 4
(3) SLY ELEANOR N was completely bottled up until it was way too late last week. Off that non-taxing effort, she should be rolling late if she is put into the flow. (8) BESTSELLER HANOVER has a stakes season to think about later this summer, but trainer Adams has been sending them ready, so beware. (7) SUNDAY AFTERNOON keeps rolling along and the way she has been right there every week, she's hard to leave out. (9) OUR VACATION is 6 of 8 this year and her good tactical speed always puts her in the race, but I'll play to beat her from out there.
Race 5
(4) COUSIN MARY drops to her easiest spot in a while and Harris should provide an aggressive steer; slight nod. (3) PRETTY HOT gets an interesting trainer change here which makes her one I'll use in the multi-leg bets. (2) ANDERSON SEELSTER got picked off in the final strides last week and she should get another good trip. She's a threat to take it all. (8) TAKEYOURBREATHWAY grinds every week and despite moving up, you know she'll be coming late again.
Race 6
(10) SOUTHWIND AVENGER totally lays over this field on class and while he doesn't need to win this, if he gets put into the race at any point, he'll be hard to deny. (1) JUDGE KEN was solid last year, and he could upset with the right trip. (8) Y C BROADWAY faces tougher here, but he's the only one in the race coming off a win; consider for the exotics. (3) SPECTRE has shown flashes for trainer Henriksen recently and he should be forwardly placed, which gives him a shot to hit the ticket here.
Race 7
(1) LOVELY DONNA is on a roll and she should be hard to deny going for a third straight win while coming off a lifetime-best performance. (5) BEACH BAR looks primed for a stable that has been sending them all ready; using. (9) FIERY BEAUTY was motoring late last time, but she simply ran out of racetrack. She's the third one that I'll use in the Pick 4s. (6) RED RIVER JANE raced well last week in an impossible spot trying a winner that is just too good right now. She should be contentious here.
Race 8
(4) DOVUTO HANOVER was reclaimed by driver Drury two starts back and they converted immediately. Another speed try is coming, no doubt. (2) ROLL WITH HOWIE had a disastrous trip last time but he was right there racing in this class two starts back; using in the late Pick 4. (7) CROCADILE CANYON has been a win machine this year so he's hard to leave off Pick 4 tickets. (8) P L IDAHO can be erratic, but he's capable when he brings his best. I'll use him underneath here.
Race 9
(3) DRAGON LADY ART was razor-sharp winning at Flamboro and I'll give her the nod here expecting a square price with the move to the big track. (1) KIWI FOCUS N drops to a logical spot and she should be prominent throughout vs. these. (7) THE GIRLS OF IMAGE gets to stay in the same class coming off a nice front-end score last week. She should be a big threat again. (6) PICKLES ON TOP raced better as expected last week; consider using underneath here.
Race 10
(3) THIS DRAGON ROCKS took a new life's mark last week when dominating a class lower. I'll stick with her. (6) AINT THREE OK was flying late despite getting mired behind a slow pace early. She is sharp and dangerous. (7) JAN dropped and popped, and she should be a threat again racing near the front. (9) AZURE SEELSTER will pepper the early pace and likely hang around for a small slice.
Race 11
(6) L WEATHER B went a huge trip on the rim last time to finish second. He can beat these with an easier trip. (9) FAMILY SPORTS goes for a high percentage barn off the claim and his price might be good starting from the outside; using. (7) EVENING PLAY drops in for a tag and keeps Roy. He is worth a look here. (1) BARN ONE will be closing late and he is a good one to use in the 3-4-5 slots. (10) BRANDON HANOVER draws worst again. He would be rated higher from a better post.