Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 4/5 Analysis
Best Bet: MANOFMANYIMAGES (8th)
Spot Play: MERVS TRU LEGACY (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,8/1,2/6,7/1,2,7/3,4,7,8,9 = $24
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,7/4,7/5,8/7,8,9 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 8/2,3,4,6/2,3,5,6/3,6,8 = $48
CAN AM PICK 4: 2,3,4,5,6,10/9/2,3,6,8/2,3,4,5 = $19.20
MEET STATS: 239 - 783 / $1,393.50 (-$236.10)
BEST BETS: 34 - 72 / $117.00 (-$27.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 72 / $132.10 (-$11.90)
Race 1
(8) BIG ROCKY unleashed an impressive late kick on the far turn last week and he sustained it to the wire to nail a leader that had enjoyed moderate fractions; call to repeat. (2) LUCKY LEVIS had no chance of closing in a 1:52 flat mile ripped off by the hot Tragically Zip, but he fits better here, and he is a player. (1) SOMEWHERE BETTOR exits that same quick race and he should be a lot closer. (7) FOLLOWYOURDESTINY wasn't far behind the choice last time in a good effort; consider for exotics.
Race 2
(2) ENCARNACION seems to be in another spot where he won't have any trouble controlling the pace and that makes him the choice here. (1) TRAVEL WINNER was a distant third to the choice last time, but if he leaves better this time starting from the inside, he's in with an upset chance. (4) JUST MAYBE THE ONE drops one level and he should contend for at least a minor share. (8) ERAMOSA MAGIC was 2nd to the choice last time, but post hurts here; for a small share only.
Race 3
(7) DOUBLE A MINT gets saddled with the outer post here in this Preferred Handicap but post 7 isn't terrible and she seems to race better off a helmet. A fivepeat looms. (6) TAJMEALLOVER is the last mare to beat the choice and if one was going to upset, it would likely be her. (4) OUTLAW FIREBALL was a good 2nd to the choice last week and she should be an exacta factor again. (5) JUST HER LUCK is in very sharp form and she is another to consider for use underneath.
Race 4
(2) MERVS TRU LEGACY gets a huge barn change here and a complete form reversal would not be a shock. He gets the nod over (1) CAPTAIN DRAGON, who simply couldn't work out a trip last week when dropped to this level and claimed. He goes for trainer Shepherd off the claim this time. (7) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE - very popular at the claim box - goes back to Moreau here making him a multi-race must-use for me. (5) ARAZI is a great one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 5
(4) AZURE SEELSTER ships north and goes for Moreau in a spot where there appears to be few leavers, so McClure may send her right down the road in her Mohawk Park debut. (7) WHISTYS PARADISE should be tight as a drum now and if she is close enough at the head of the lane, look out. (3) REIS STAR CROSS gets a better post and her regular driver back here, which should make her a threat in this spot. (9) DOCS SAUSALITO would be rated higher if she had a better post, but she was close form this starting slot two starts back.
Race 6
(5) A J CASH made two moves then held off the onrushing (8) IF I MUST last time. This race should come down to these two again, with the nod going to the former who has post advantage. (1) ALPHA SEELSTER was third in the same race after setting the pace and if he stays flat here, he can be in the mix again. (2) KUIL DEVA is always in the mix, but she's made $123K winning only twice and it's anyone's guess when she will graduate to the next class level.
Race 7
(8) LDL GEM got hung out too long by another leaver last time and she paid the price. There doesn't appear to be much gate speed to her left in this spot and she should have a much better shot. (7) REYS IN A ROCKET followed the choice down the backside and almost pulled off the win in a good effort; using. (9) XELENE BAYAMA is inconsistent, but she drops back into a claimer here and Cullen did get a test drive in the slop last week. I'll use her in this Pick 4 anchor leg. (1) DAPPLE APPLE is in a good spot to follow and hit the ticket.
Race 8
(8) MANOFMANYIMAGES was an easy winner last time he raced in this class and he should simply dominate this field if he gets sent for the front off the gate. (5) DOTTIE was picked off late by another infrequent winner last time and she seems always to be best used underneath. (2) SMOKE MONKEY hasn't hit the board yet this year, but in this spot, he could trip-out and hang around for a slice. (6) TOUCHDOWN AS races best at this level but even then, he is regularly a fringe player.
Race 9
(3) BUTTERMILK HANOVER was a brave 2nd after grinding first-over last time and she can turn the tables with a better trip here. (6) P L HURRICANE dominated last time and repelled the choice late. She's the one to catch again. (4) SLY ELEANOR N faces tougher here, but she's been kept sharp by trainer MacInnis all year and you know she'll be flying late; using. (2) AINT THREE OK drops from the top class and she's another who should make this dash competitive.
Race 10
(3) MAKE MINE MOCHA gets a slight nod in a very tough kick-off leg of the Can Am Pick 4 in which there are several viable options. (2) WINSONGMAGNIFIQUE has faced two very classy winners in her last two starts and this is a better spot. She should go much better here. (5) OUTLAW IMAHOTVIXEN was against it last time chasing in a quick back 1/2. She always has upset potential with her good late kick. (6) PRETTY HOT steps up off a big upset win, but she is sharp; using.
Race 11
(3) HURRIED ROMANCE was motoring late last week, and she gets McClure her in a good spot; top call. (8) TWICE AN ANGEL was sent with intent last week, but a big longshot who had the same idea leaving from the 10-hole did enough early damage that it took its toll on this mare late. The 9 and 10 are unlikely to be leaving here, so she's a threat to wire this field. (6) ALWAYS A ROSE is an interesting newcomer for trainer Auciello; using. (2) FRANSCHOEK was solid here last week and she's tough to leave off the Can Am Pick 4 ticket. (5) CHECK MACH regularly takes slices; using underneath.