Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 4/26 Analysis
Best Bet: ON THE MINUTE MARK (7th)
Spot Play: TWICE AN ANGEL (2nd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 3,4,7,9/3,7/3,4,6/2,6/2,8,9,10 = $38.40
Early Pick 4 - 2,6/2,8,9,10/4,6,10/1 = $24
Late Pick 4 - 2,7,8/6/1,5,6/1,3,4,5,8 = $45
Can Am Pick 4: 1,5,6/5/1,3,4,5,8/1,2,3,6,8 = $15
MEET STATS: 280 - 896 / $1,635.60 (-$156.40)
BEST BETS: 37 - 82 / $129.10 (-$34.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 83 / $138.40 (-$27.60)
Race 1
(3) MUSCLE GEM was last seen at Woodbine Racetrack more than four years ago winning from the 10-hole. His lone qualifier was good preparing for this return and if anyone could have him ready, it's Moreau; slight nod. (7) ENCARNACION looked like he had a fourth straight win wrapped up when the classy Kadabra Queen rolled by. He is a big threat again. (4) IF I MUST is right there every week when he stays flat. He's hard to leave off this Pick 5 ticket. (9) ALEXUS EH qualified sharply for this and she can certainly contend if she gets put into play early.
Race 2
(3) TWICE AN ANGEL drops back to a spot where she fits best, and Cullen may be able to bottom out this field with her. (7) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY also fits much better here and she is the best closer. The concern is with her positioning and if she can get within striking range early enough in the mile to capitalize. (6) FINA PATINA broke on the wet track last time. I'll give her another chance here and use her in the Pick 5. (5) ANDERSON SEELSTER should be a threat, but a smaller award seems likely for her here.
Race 3
(6) VERO AMORE BI is always a bit of a risky proposition, but he crushed the field last time he was in this class on March 21st and he gets top call on the drop. (3) SEVERUS HANOVER likely should have re-taken past the 1/4 last time because by the time he got room to trot in the lane, there was no way he was catching the leader. He's a threat here and I'll use him in the Pick 5. (4) SVENSSON is capable of better and he retains the white-hot McClure. He's a price option to consider here. (2) EXPLOSIVE JET goes to Moreau here, but I haven't liked what I have seen from him recently and I'll play to beat him as an underlay.
Race 4
(6) LYONS HEDGEABET is sneaky here coming off a couple of races where she missed the board. Note she won with McClure driving in this class four starts back; top call. (2) STARGAZING CRUISER faces tougher, but she was a sharp winner last week and she should get a good trip here; using. (3) COSETTE should be a speed threat and if she can get covered up early, she has a shot to win this. (5) OUR VACATION is hard to discount having won 4 of her last 6, but she does face tougher here.
Race 5
(9) CHOCOLATE TERROR has hinted at improvement in her last two starts and she drops in for a tag here. She could get ignored leaving from post 9; price play. (8) LDL GEM should be the one to catch again and she's on my multi-race tickets. (10) PROTECT BLUE CHIP is always a threat to roll by them all and she drops a level here; using. (2) XELENE BAYAMA put it all together last time, but that she was 5 cents on the dollar tells you what kind of field she beat. She's capable vs. these if Team Cullen has figured her out.
Race 6
In a race where it's hard to have a strong like for any, I'll take a swing with (10) ESQUIRE making his second start for trainer Moreau and getting Roy to drive. At least there should be a price here. (6) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY is as good as he gets right now, and he should be in the mix again. (4) SMOKE MONKEY was 2nd-best to a runaway winner last time and he could break through here for his first 2019 win if he gets a trip. (1) PARKHILL NONSTOP looks good off his April 22nd qualifier, but he's a bad actor I just can't trust. I'll play against him here.
Race 7
(1) ON THE MINUTE MARK qualified faster than most of these have been racing and she gets class relief and the rail and my top call. (2) JET TO THE BEACH has to be better than her 2019 debut and she fires right back so I'll use her in the exotics here. (6) KATNISS S BG also qualified well and she had a good record last year. She may need one racing off the bench, but she is capable vs. these. (3) ALWAYS A ROSE had an impossible trip last time now she gets post and class relief. She's another possibility for the exotics here.
Race 8
(2) GALLANT MAN appeared to be spinning his wheels on the wet track last week. I'll give him another chance here. (7) SPECTRE's last effort showed improvement and he is one to consider at a price here as he never seems to get bet. (8) Y C BROADWAY gets a barn change which could help him get back to his winning ways; using. (5) OCEANVIEW DEB is an infrequent winner, but she should grab at least a share in this field.
Race 9
(6) DOUBLE A MINT had to take a forced rest this month because there was no Mares Preferred carded since her last win on April 5th. She shoots for six straight here and gets a slight nod over her rejuvenated stablemate (3) SANDBETWEENURTOES, who comes off a terrific effort in which she parked two rivals the entire backside two and three-wide then dug in to take a new season's mark. (1) OUTLAW FIREBALL was one of those that was hung the mile and from the rail here she should get a much better trip and at least hit the board. (5) JUST HER LUCK moves up off a nice win and she can close for a small slice here.
Race 10
(1) WHISTYS PARADISE reverted to her more effective closing tactics last week as predicted, but she couldn't chase down a sharp winner late. She could get the best trip here. (5) EXHILARATED drops and she should go a long way on the front here; using. (6) LEAVING A LEGACY powered up to win when claimed and I'll use her as a value option in the Can Am Pick 4 despite the class rise. (2) VILLAGE JAMIE should go better here with the move inside; consider for exotics.
Race 11
(4) AZURE SEELSTER set strong fractions on a wet track then drew away. She\s razor-sharp and gets the call to repeat. (5) AINT THREE OK should be a big threat on the class drop; using. (1) JAN should get a good spot early here and if she trips out, she can beat these. (3) THIS DRAGON ROCKS drops, and she almost won in this class two back. She's another Can Am Pick 4 option in an evenly-matched field. (8) BUTTERMILK HANOVER is in good form and if the trip shakes out her way, she is another who could come out on top here. This is a spread leg of the Can Am Pick 4 for me.