Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 4/12 Analysis
Best Bet: TAJMEALLOVER (9th)
Spot Play: IF I MUST (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5: 1,3,4,6/4,5/4,6/1/2,4,7 = $9.60
Early Pick 4: 1/2,4,7/1/2,3,7 = $12
Late Pick 4: 3,5/1/4,6,9/2,3,8
Can Am Pick 4: 4,6,9/3,4,6,8/2,3,8/2,4,5,8 = $28.80
MEET STATS: 253 - 814 / $1,487.40 (-$140.60)
BEST BETS: 34 - 75 / $117.00 (-$33.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 75 / $132.10 (-$17.90)
Race 1
(1) COSETTE raced well vs. a tough leader last week and she gets a slight nod in a race with a few possibilities. (4) MYSTIC SEELSTER is getting closer and her fast kicker sticks out; using. (6) OUR VACATION should get sent this time, which gives her a much better chance. (3) ARRIVAL compiled a great record last year and she's in with a shot making her 2019 debut.
Race 2
(4) EXPLOSIVE JET looks best here, and he'll likely go off as chalk off the Auciello claim. (5) BEE IN CHARGE takes a suspicious drop off a vet scratch and while he's obviously capable on his best, the drop to the bottom following some good efforts for a higher tag could be a red flag. (2) BOP TOO THE TOP is always around at the finish, but she has yet to win on this circuit; using underneath. (1) HELLO CHIPPER tripped-out to beat the choice at a big price. I see her as more of a fringe player this time.
Race 3
If (6) SORCERESS SEELSTER trots this entire mile, she should win in this spot. It's really that simple. (4) ALPHA SEELSTER comes off a game effort in defeat. He's the other one that I'll use in the Pick 5. (2) STORMONT ROYALTY can sneak into the exotics picture here leaving from a better post. (8) ROAD TRIPPER figures to be closing late for a small slice.
Race 4
(1) AZURE SEELSTER finds another spot where she should make a middle move to the front and control the race. She's my Pick 4 and Pick 5 single. (2) OUTLAW IMAHOTVIXEN closed sharply last time and she should be right there again if she gets a decent trip. (7) EXHILARATED will likely blast this time, which gives her a much better chance of hitting the board. (4) PRETTY HOT has been good for a few weeks now; using underneath.
Race 5
(7) MAGICAL WINNER K dominated maidens here last week and it looks like there's more in the tank; top call. (2) KNOPFLER moved earlier and he was rewarded with a win. He looks like the main threat here. (4) SOUTHWIND CASHA missed some time since her debut win when she beat Knopfler. I'll use her underneath in this spot. (3) GUCCIOS OFFICE can rally for a share starting from an inside post.
Race 6
(1) SUNDAY AFTERNOON bounced back as expected last week and this isn't the toughest class jump; call to repeat. (3) ONLY ONE STAR was a good second to the choice and she should be rallying for another big share vs. these. (4) ALWAYS A ROSE took a lot of money then broke in her debut for Auciello. She's a bit of a question mark but appears capable of taking at least a share. (2) HURRIED ROMANCE should get a great following trip here; consider for exotics.
Race 7
(3) WHISTYS PARADISE was asked to leave last time in a rare tactics switch and it almost paid off with a win. She is obviously sharp and dangerous. (2) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY seems to have hit the top of her form cycle and she could take this if she can find a live helmet to follow. (7) MANHATTAN AGAIN drops, and McClure has been on fire recently; using in both Pick 4s. (4) MANHATTAN PLAY brings good form back with her from Flamboro and she could hit the ticket at a price.
Race 8
(3) IF I MUST was stung moving into the fastest quarter of the race last week. He gets post relief here and he should be tough. (5) GALLANT MAN faces easier and he could be a big wire-to-wire threat in this spot. (4) ENCARNACION meets tougher here and I think this will be where his bubble could burst. (1) KUIL DEVA will likely rally for a small share again.
Race 9
(1) TAJMEALLOVER gets to take a big class plunge here and the $12K winner's share of this purse seems to be hers for the taking. (2) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE could add some value to the exacta as she should get a good trip near the front. (6) BUTTERMILK HANOVER and (7) SLY ELEANOR will both take money here, but their late rallies will likely fall short in this spot.
Race 10
(9) PROTECT BLUE CHIP's connections aren't worried about post as they enter her for the highest tag here and she can rally past all of these if the early pace is reasonable. (6) LDL GEM is the logical alternative having fallen just a head short to the choice last time. (4) P L LIGHTNING drops into a claimer for the first time, which is often a potent angle. I'll toss her on my Can Am Pick 4 ticket. (3) XELENE BAYAMA hasn't done anything of note since being claimed, but if she decided to wake up, she could blow up the tote.
Race 11
(3) TWICE AN ANGEL again had to deal with an outside leaver at the start last week and then she was overtaken by the winner on the backside. One of these weeks, she'll wire a field; maybe tonight? (8) ASKMYSECRETARY tussled with the choice early then faded late. Her rally two starts back shows that she is capable with a trip, and she should be a big price here. (2) CHECK MACH beat both of the top two last week and raced tough on the rim. I'll use her too in the Can Am Pick 4. (7) ROYALTYWESTHO drops but she has failed at this class recently. I'll use her underneath. (6) CHOCOLATE TERROR can sneak onto the High 5 ticket at a big price.