Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 3/29 Analysis
Best Bet: DOUBLE A MINT (3rd)
Spot Play: WATCH MY LUCK (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4/5,6,9/2/4,9/2,9 = $4.80
EARLY PICK 4: 4,9/2,9/2,3,7,9/8,9 = $32
LATE PICK 4: 1,7/1,2/1,2,6/5,7 = $24
CAN-AM PICK-4: 1,2,6/4,5,6,7,8/2,5,7,8/7 = $12 for 20 cents
MEET STATS: 224 - 742 / $1,255.40 (-$228.60)
BEST BETS: 32 - 68 / $111.50 (-$24.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 68 / $132.10 (-$3.90)
Race 1
(4) OUR VACATION was one of many leaders early in last Thursday's card that seemed to be on the worst part of the track on the final turn, but she stayed game and she can bounce back in this spot. (3) MYSTIC SEELSTER comes off a failed first up try and she has some upset possibilities here with a better trip projected. (2) RED RIVER JANE finished behind the choice last time and she should hit the board again here. (6) KEEP FOCUSED comes in with two sharp qualifiers. Tab the tote for clues with this one.
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Race 2
(5) CINDY LYNN made a big move that she couldn't quite sustain to the wire. She looks best here if she can work out a slightly easier journey. (6) ROAD TRIPPER has developed a nice late kick and Macdonald is a good partner for him; using. (9) ALPHA SEELSTER is in sharp form and he should be a speed threat here despite his post. (8) KUIL DEVA is a good one to use on the bottom, as always.
Race 3
(2) DOUBLE A MINT is the queen of this castle right now and the short field gives her options regarding when to make her move. (3) SANDBETWEENURTOES has hit her best stride and she should give her stablemate another tussle here. (6) TAJMEALLOVER is usually right there in this class but she needs to find a way to work out a trip from out there. (1) JUST HER LUCK steps into the deep end here and a smaller share is likely for her this time.
Race 4
(9) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE is the one to knock off here and another claim seems likely. (4) WESTERN PHIL comes up tagged here so sharp improvement is likely; using. (6) REAL WICKED couldn't convert as the choice and the barn change could be a negative here, so I'll use him underneath only. (3) ARAZI can come late with a rush to complete the Tri or Super.
Race 5
(2) NAUGHTY LADY B drops to a likely spot here and an aggressive try is likely; top call. (9) TWICE AN ANGEL ships in with good form for a hot barn. There is some upset potential here. (4) HURRIED ROMANCE should be prominent early then stick around for a slice. (3) PICKLES ON TOP should be closing late if she stays flat this time; consider for the exotics.
Race 6
In a race with little current form, I'll stab with (9) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY, who could get a great trip racing on or near the front. (2) CLOUD NINE HANOVER drops, and he will likely go favored. Expect Cullen to leave with him here. (3) ALERT HANOVER fits and if he can stay flat he should be in the mix. (7) HETTIES COMMANDER gets Saftic here and the two veterans are capable of an upset if they choose to leave for position.
Race 7
(9) LDL GEM was terrific winning in her first start for Moreau and she can repeat here with a reasonable trip. (8) DAWN SHOOTER goes for a driver/trainer that makes infrequent starts but coming off a sharp win off the claim, I'll use her here. (5) REYS IN A ROCKET should trip out and take another share. (2) DAPPLE APPLE rarely misses the board. She\s a good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 8
(1) WATCH MY LUCK drops to a much better spot here and she should get a good trip from this post; top call. (7) REQUEST FOR PAROLE is at the top of her game right now and she's hard to leave out. (5) JAN drops and she will be prominent, but she tends to get overbet and I'll play to beat her. (4) QUITE A SIGHT is another dropper to consider in a race where trip will likely decide it.
Race 9
(2) BEACHES BE CRAZY has faced better recently and in this short field she should be close enough at the 3/4 to get the job done. (1) COSETTE also gets class relief here and she's the other one that I'll use in the Pick 4. (4) ONLY ONE STAR steps up off a big win but the top two are much tougher and a smaller share seems likely. (3) BIDFORA HUG also steps up off a win but she too may be fighting for scraps if the choice comes to play.
Race 10
(2) BUTTERMILK HANOVER finds a good spot here both in terms of class and post and she should be tough. (1) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE couldn't hold off a razor-sharp winner last week, but she remains viable here. (6) P L HURRICANE drops again and while she is a contender, she may get overbet. (4) OUTLAW IMAHOTVIXEN should be closing again for a slice.
Race 11
(5) DOCS SAUSALITO left hard, yielded, then came again to just miss. Off that strong effort she gets the nod here. (7) EXHILARATED found her mojo at the bottom level and it would be no surprise if she rolled off a few wins in a row now. (8) NO MO FO JOE is in terrific form, but this post may relegate her to taking a smaller share this time. (2) WHISTYS PARADISE had a tightener and she could pass all of these if the race falls apart late. (1) BIG LIS tried a backside brush, but she couldn't clear. She's in the mix here but a smaller share seems likely for her.