Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 3/22 Analysis
Best Bet: MUSCLE MATTERS (6th)
Spot Play: OUTLAW FIREBALL (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4,6/3,5,6/2,4/2,5,7/2,5,7 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,7/2,5,7/7/2,3,4,5 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,5,7/1,6,8/1,2,5/1,5 = $54
CAN-AM PICK 4: 1,2,5/1,4,7/1,5/2,4,6 = $54
MEET STATS: 214 - 702 / $1,169.90 (-$234.10)
BEST BETS: 31 - 64 / $107.70 (-$20.30)
SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 64 / $119.30 (-$8.70)
Race 1
(4) LANESIDE SPORTSGURL is a homebred from a dam who had immediate success on this circuit when she shipped here from overseas. This isn't the toughest spot to debut and she gets my nod. (6) FRISKY BEAVER is getting closer and she stacks up well in this field; using. (3) SURE FIRE KATIE should improve sharply here moving off the 10-hole for her second start. She would be no surprise. (5) GOODNIGHT IRENE is worth a look for the exotics based in her good qualifier on March 14th.
Race 2
(6) CINDY LYNN went right down the road in a rainstorm last week in this class and this looks no tougher; call to repeat. (5) GUCCIOS OFFICE rallied well last time and he looks like the main danger and he may even go off as chalk. (3) ROAD TRIPPER has turned into a solid racehorse and he should be heard from again here. (1) WIKI HANOVER should sit a trip and take another slice.
Race 3
(8) XELENE BAYAMA drops to the bottom here and she'll be tough, especially if she gets claimed which seems likely in this spot. (2) TAME THE DAME should get a much better trip with the move to an inside post and that makes her dangerous. (4) ONLY ONE STAR broke on a very wet track. She can rebound here and contend if she stays flat. (5) REYS IN A ROCKET is trip-dependent and a smaller share seems likely in this spot.
Race 4
(2) DONTBRUISECARRIE left too much to do late last time, but she gets to come back to this class and a more aggressive steer is likely; top call. (7) EXHILARATED may blast this time and that's more her game; using. (5) WHISTYS PARADISE is more than capable vs. these and I wouldn't be surprised if she fired fresh. (6) DAZZLING ROCKETTE is always around for a slice at this level it seems; using underneath.
Race 5
(2) COSETTE faces much easier than the likes of Sly Eleanor N and she should be formidable vs. this group. (5) NO MO FO JOE took plenty of curious action last week, considering she had finished no better than 6th in the same class in her previous five starts and she converted. I'll use her off that form reversal. (7) LEAVING A LEGACY gets Henry back and note he finished 2nd with her in three straight races recently. She has an upset chance here. (3) MYSTIC SEELSTER should be good for another share in here.
Race 6
(7) MUSCLE MATTERS was an easy winner last time he raced at this level on February 15th and Filion is likely to get aggressive early; top call. (3) PARKHILL NONSTOP made a big move last time racing on a very wet track and he almost lasted. He's always in with a shot when racing at this level. (2) DOMINUM DEO is worth a price look off his sharp win two starts back. (6) MUSICAL SPELL can leave, sit and hang around for a share.
Race 7
(3) OUTLAW FIREBALL is capable at this level and the improved post can be a big factor in increasing her chances here; slight nod. (4) JAN was no match late for a strong winner, but she should get a similarly good trip here and that makes her a threat. (2) BAROCKEY is sharp and just needs to find some cover and she'll be right there on the wire. (5) AINT THREE OK can rally for a piece at a price.
Race 8
(5) ALPHA SEELSTER made a big move in the fastest 1/4 of the race but he couldn't sustain his bid late. Perhaps the wet track was a factor. I'll stick with him here. (7) IF I MUST is in great form and he should be a danger despite stepping up in class. (3) SIGN HERE N HERE need only stay flat to threaten. I'll use him in this late Pick 4. (4) TINAS MAJESTY is showing signs of improvement and he's a good one to use underneath here.
Race 9
(6) REAL WICKED was right there when claimed and he goes for top claiming trainer Shepherd now; top call. (8) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE goes back to Moreau and he has remained sharp. He is likely the one to beat. (1) LAUTNER SEELSTER goes first time for Gallucci which makes him another that you must consider using. (7) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER should be there for a smaller share again.
Race 10
This is the first leg of the initial Can-Am Pick 4 wager combining the last two races from Mohawk Park with two races from The Meadowlands. (1) LYONS RIVER PRIDE was razor-sharp last week when winning and she could repeat here despite the class rise. (2) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE gets Roy here and she should get a good trip racing near the front; using. (5) REQUEST FOR PAROLE dominated lesser and she's not out of this, especially starting from one of the two best posts. (8) I WISH YOU WELL is getting closer and she can take another share here.
Race 11
(5) WOODMERE CEILIDH had a good effort in a similar class three starts back and she won't be held off forever racing out of Auciello's barn; price play. (1) REIS STAR CROSS will likely go favored and she's due to breakout; using. (9) DOCS SAUSALITO is capable at this level and she can add some value to the exotics. (6) BEACHES BE CRAZY will be passing mares late and she should be on the Super ticket at least. (4) MISS MADY is another good one to use on the bottom in this spot.