Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 3/15 Analysis
Best Bet: SETANTA (6th)
Spot Play: ALPHA SEELSTER (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,4,7/4,5,6/2,4/2,5,9/7,8 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,9/7,8/6/1,3 = $12
LATE PICK 4: 1,3/4,5/4,6,8/2,3,6 = $36
MEET STATS: 202 - 672 / $1,097.30 (-$246.70)
BEST BETS: 29 - 61 / $101.00 (-$21.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 61 / $119.30 (-$2.70)
Race 1
(1) CINDY LYNN had a decent return race which she should benefit from and she gets top billing here. (7) BEAUTY CUTIE has a good late kick to offer when she stays trotting and the short field here should help; using. (4) WIKI HANOVER finished behind the top two last time, but she could do here if she can work out a trip. (6) STORMONT ROYALTY appears to be facing easier. She could land in the Tri or Super vs. these.
Race 2
(5) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP moves to the Fellows barn off a claim, but he's hot and may be hard to hold off. (6) LORIS LUCKY STAR is the other one coming off a claim here and he figures to be prominent. (4) SANTANNA TONY was nailed late by the choice last time, but he remains a player and one to look closely at when making out Pick 5 tickets. (1) CAPTAIN DRAGON should get a better trip here leaving from the inside; consider for exotics.
Race 3
(4) ALPHA SEELSTER is one of few who have won racing first-up at this meet and I'll call him to repeat here off that top effort. (2) SIGN HERE N HERE was picked off only late in a quick mile and he will be the one to catch again. (3) STENHOUSE HANOVER was flying at the wire last time and he should take at least a minor share in this field. (8) ROAD TRIPPER is putting it all together, but from out there I see him closing late to take a small slice.
Race 4
(6) LDL GEM goes for five straight here while moving to Moreau's barn and she might even go favored despite stepping up slightly. (2) ROCKNROLS IMAGE - moving into the Shepherd barn - looks formidable and she's on my multi-race tickets. (9) NASTY RUMOUR is obviously a contender on paper but starting from out there she may just get too far back early. Beware taking a short price here. (5) REYS IN A ROCKET got a perfect run up the pylons last time. I doubt that trip gets replayed here and I'll use her only underneath.
Race 5
(7) DONTBRUISECARRIE may never find an easier spot in a conditioned race and Hudon is likely to send her right down the road. (8) SEASIDE SHADOW is the only other mare that I'll use in the Pick 4 and Pick 5, mostly because of the barn change to Auciello. (3) ASKMYSECRETARY should be sent for better position off the gate this time and if she is, she will hit the ticket. (2) UPTOWN WOMAN is capable of hitting the ticket vs. these.
Race 6
(6) SETANTA appeared to be treading water late in the mile last week, but the final 1/4 was trotted in 27 4/5 and no one was closing on the strong winner. He drops and gets McNair back, and he'll be heavily bet here, but he does look much the best. (7) MUSICAL SPELL often blasts early when racing in this class; exacta factor. (2) PARKHILL NONSTOP is another class-dropper to consider using in the exotics. (4) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY has raced well with Roy driving and he should get another piece here.
Race 7
(1) JUST MY SHADOW closed well vs. a strong repeat winner and she looks to have the edge on these. (3) FRISKY BEAVER was pacing well down the lane, but the final 1/4 was quick, which made passing horses nearly impossible. She's in with a shot here. (9) CHOCOLATEMILKTOAST was solid late in the mile, but from this post, a smaller share is likely this time. (7) CHURCH BELLS paced a strong back 1/2 and she is worth a look for the exotics.
Race 8
(4) EXHILARATED lands in a spot where she should be tough. (5) REQUEST FOR PAROLE is the other veteran class-dropper and these two will likely decide it down the lane. (3) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY also drops, but she is more likely to be closing for a slice racing against the two mentioned above. (8) MANHATTAN PLAY has a decent kick on her best day and she could come late for a share.
Race 9
(8) SLY ELEANOR N is likely too good for these if she is within striking range at the 1/8th pole. (6) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION has been raced sparingly since winning the Blizzard series, but she's capable if she brings her best effort. (4) MS CHEESMAN just failed to hold the choice off last week and she is likely the one to catch again. (5) BEACHES BE CRAZY looks best of the rest and she can close for a smaller share.
Race 10
(3) MAKE MINE MOCHA comes off a moderate effort from post 10, but two starts back she almost won at a higher level. She should be tough here. (2) DOCS SAUSALITO is in a better spot here and she should contend as should (6) LYONS RIVER PRIDE, who drops and is sure to take action making her 4th start back. (9) VILLAGE JAMIE's 27 2/5 kicker from last week interests me enough to use her underneath. (8) XELENE BAYAMA makes her second start for Auciello and she should get a better trip here; consider for exotics.