Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 2/15 Analysis
Best Bet: OBVIOUS BLUE CHIP (10th)
Spot Play: XELENE BAYAMA (11th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,6,9,10/2/2,4/2,4,5/3,8,10 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,4,5/3,8,10/5,6/3,6 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,10/1,2,6/5/4,5,7 = $27
MEET STATS: 155 - 506 / $874.70 (-$137.30)
BEST BETS: 20 - 45 / $71.30 (-$18.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 45 / $95.20 (+$5.20)
Race 1
(4) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY gets McNair and a better post here after getting hung the mile last time. He gets a lukewarm nod in a race where it's hard to love anything. (6) CARMENS FLUKE races decently at this level typically and getting away from the 10 hole should help produce a much better performance here. (9) BURNIN MONEY - although being win averse it seems - looks like the best one in here currently but post 9 may be too much for him to overcome. (10) CLOUD NINE HANOVER is another contender who would have to overcome a bad post, but he isn't impossible in this field, even from out there.
Race 2
(2) KENDALL SEELSTER used a lethal 27 3/5 third quarter brush to get the job done last week and she remains very tough in this class. (6) DOUBLE A MINT may have been caught napping by the choice on the final turn. She's capable of better. (3) TAJMEALLOVER hasn't been out of place since being raised to the top class and she will be an exacta and Tri factor again. (4) BUTTERMILK HANOVER is an honest trier that can sneak onto the Tri or Super ticket.
Race 3
(4) SUNNY DEE steps into deeper water here, but she has looked like she could be any kind and she may be up to the challenge. (2) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION was lights out in the Blizzard series and she should provide a tough challenge for the choice here. (7) SHES ON A ROLL won a leg of the Blizzard series and she could provide some exotics value off her last line where she was 8th in the Blizzard final. (1) COSETTE should sit a nice trip and she could better this placing with some racing luck.
Race 4
(2) CHICKIE LOVE did all the work but was picked off late by pocket-sitter (5) INDYWHEELBARROW last week. Slight edge to the former here making her second start off the Hall claim, but I'll use both in the multis. (4) NASTY RUMOUR should leave better here and that gives her a chance to upset the top two; using. (6) REYS IN A ROCKET finishes on the fringes frequently and that type of placing is again likely here.
Race 5
(8) UPTOWN FUNK was very good last week and game right to the wire. He faces several horses that are stepping up here and he is the one to catch. (3) MISTER GODRO was produced late in the mile when the winner was long gone but moving inside should promote a better start here; using. (10) MY TEEN IDOL was too good last week to discount here, and his price should be good. I'll add him on my multi-race tickets. (7) OH K MAN didn't fire last week, but he's capable of a better effort; consider for exotics.
Race 6
(5) VERO AMORE BI lasted longer last week when claimed and he may just wire these in his third start back, and he is tagged for $3K less than he was claimed for here. (6) SHIVERED was great when claimed and winning in his first start of the year and he should be a threat here. (7) SVENSSON has no form to speak of, but he goes for Moreau and Roy here and that's enough for me to give him a look.
Race 7
(3) JUST HER LUCK has won at a higher class than this as recently as early June and she should wake up in this spot. (6) WATCH MY LUCK won last time she tried this level and she is in with an upset chance here. (5) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY is usually right there at this level, but she is trip-dependent. 4) ON THE MINUTE MARK was sharp last week but she faces much tougher here; small share predicted.
Race 8
(2) GALLANT MAN took heavy action last time, but he appeared to need the race. I'll stick with him here in his third start for trainer Gallucci. (1) BIGBOY ROSCO has been firing home quickly every week recently and he will be the one to stave off again. (10) WIKI HANOVER - currently for sale for $75K on the Ongait website - is on a good roll and she merits a long look even from post 10. (8) DRAFT YEAR should be good for another small share in this spot; using underneath.
Race 9
(2) VINES TO HEAVEN has been sharp in every start since the Niagara series and from another good post she should be tough here. (1) QUITE A SIGHT is right there every week and she's hard to leave out at this level. (6) MANHATTAN AGAIN wired a decent field with McClure back on last week and he sticks here; using. (5) SAND ARTIST seems to be spinning her wheels late in her miles recently, but she's not impossible with a trip, either.
Race 10
(5) OBVIOUS BLUE CHIP beat all but a very classy mare last time who woke up with a big effort. She gets to drop here and she should control things. (7) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE also drops and she should get put into play earlier vs. these; exacta factor. (1) BOURBON SEELSTER gets Roy back for a second drive and she should be in the mix here. (2) SOS BAMBIE faces tougher here, but she can take a share racing close to the front.
Race 11
(4) XELENE BAYAMA showed nothing from an outer post last week, but she's capable of much better and she gets Filion back here and my nod to take the finale. (5) TWENTY THREE RED fits okay here and coming off a win and getting a good post makes her one that I'll use in the late Pick 4. (7) ANDERSON SEELSTER drops and she will likely get sent on a speed mission by Drury. She's another contender that could take this. (9) MANHATTAN PLAY should close for another small share. (2) JUSTABIT MEAN won for the first time in 50 starts last week now she steps up and will likely be a bit player vs. these.