Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 2/1 Analysis
Best Bet: MISTER MAGIC (6th)
Spot Play: HOT SPOT HANOVER (11th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,3,5,7,8/2,5,8/2,3,6/6/2,3,5 = $27
EARLY PICK 4: 6/2,3,5/4/2,3,4,7 = $12
LATE PICK 4: 2,8/1,4,9/6,7/2,4 = $24
MEET STATS: 137 - 430 / $768.60 (-$91.40)
BEST BETS: 17 - 39 / $62.70 (-$15.30)
SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 39 / $90.20 (+$12.20)
Race 1
(3) BARN ONE was in an impossible spot after leaving poorly from the 8-hole last week and he never got into the race. Moving inside, I'll try him one more time as a price play in this spot. (8) UPTOWN FUNK has found his niche in claimers and he's a must-use here. (1) LUCKLST BLUEGRASS is worth using here simply because there's a good chance he'll get the best trip. (7) RACEMUP can get a better trip on or near the lead this time and I'll use him too in this wide-open kickoff to the Pick 5.
Race 2
(5) LUCYS MAN tipped his hand with a 28-flat kicker two starts back, then gamely converted a first-over trip into a win last week; call to repeat. (2) ROSE RUN SPEEDSTER gets instant respect moving into Moreau's barn; using. (8) OVERCOMEBYVICTORY had a perfect trip last week and couldn't quite reach Lucy's Man, but the track favored horses that raced close to the front that night, so she could turn the tables here. (6) EXPLOSIVE JET goes for Shepherd off the claim, but I'm inclined to still bet against based on three races in a row where he couldn't seal the deal.
Race 3
(3) SHEZAREALDEAL drops and she won three starts back in a class slightly lower than this. She can beat these if she gets the same aggressive steer she got that night. (6) THRILLONTHEBEACH stopped last time on a track that was rated a second off. Her excellent race two starts back puts her in the picture here. (2) AINT THREE OK is another class-dropper who should get put into play here; using. (8) LINDWOOD BEACHGIRL is certainly classy enough for these, but after missing more than a year of action, she may need a couple of starts to hit her best stride.
Race 4
(6) SANTANNA TONY won easily in this class as expected last week and this spot doesn't look much tougher; call to repeat. (3) MISTER GODRO moves from a claiming handicap to a conditioned claimer. He should contend here. (5) CAPTAIN DRAGON has a similar profile as Mister Godro and he should find this test a bit easier. (1) MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP can improve in his second start in the new barn; using underneath.
Race 5
(5) SAND ARTIST has probably saved her best for this stakes series final and she gets my nod. (3) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION has been lights out so far in this series and she's the one to beat here. (2) LYONS HEDGEABET is another who is a strong contender in a race with several chances. (6) PROTECT BLUE CHIP should contend from close range and take at least a slice here.
Race 6
(4) MISTER MAGIC steps up into a weak non-winners of three off a sharp seasonal debut win and he should repeat here. (1) BEHOLDER should improve sharply moving inside after having had a tightener and she can complete this exacta. (5) GALLANT MAN has the class and speed to contend here if ready. (3) DRAFT YEAR got a horrific trip last time when he couldn't clear. I'll use him underneath here.
Race 7
(7) R BAZINGGA was game last week despite enduring a long trip. He should be a good price in this final; call to upset. (3) BETWEEN THE SHEETS was unleashed by McNair last week and he converted with a game win; using. (4) FEISTY FIREBALL was let go as an overlay and he got the job done. Another good trip up front isn't impossible here and I'll use him in the Pick 4's. (2) PANTHER SEELSTER was game in defeat and he's probably the one to catch again.
Race 8
(8) REQUEST FOR PAROLE drops, and likely pops in this spot. (2) AMERICAN SARA has hit her best stride recently and she's in with a good shot here. (1) THE JOY LUCK CLUB is worth a look here on post relief alone. (10) SANDBETWEENURTOES has seen better days, but she gets class relief here. Will that be enough for her to overcome post 10 and beat them all? Your call.
Race 9
(9) JORDIES HOPE gets a barn switch and picks up McNair here which makes me think an aggressive steer is coming; top call. (1) CHICKIE LOVE did all the heavy lifting on the rim then got picked off last time. She's in with a great shot here. (4) NASTY RUMOUR is in solid form and if she can work out another good trip here, she should be right there. (2) HEATHER LOVES NY goes for a high percentage barn off the claim and she's another in with a shot in this wide-open dash.
Race 10
(6) DOUBLE A MINT got the jump on her main rival (7) KENDALL SEELSTER last week and she was able to turn the tables. With post advantage here, I'll give the former a slight edge again but use both in the late Pick 4. (4) TAJMEALLOVER tried to leave the top two behind with a quick third quarter move, but she tired in the lane. She should be good for a slice again. (5) BUTTERMILK HANOVER often outruns her odds and she is a good one to use on the bottom here.
Race 11
(2) HOT SPOT HANOVER dropped and got hung out to dry last week. The post change could be all she needs here. (4) DAZZLING ROCKETTE takes a big drop here and merits Pick 4 use. (6) ON THE MINUTE MARK should get a good spot near the front early so she can hit the ticket. (1) E R RHONDA is another who should get a good following trip here; using underneath. (8) CHOCOLATE TERROR can wind up from far back and finish on the edges.