Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 1/25 Analysis
Best Bet: VINES TO HEAVEN (10th)
Spot Play: LUCYS MAN (1st)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,6/1,4,6/2,5.7/3,8/2,4,10 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 3,8/2,4,10/6,7,9/1,4,6 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 1,4,6/5,6,8/2,4/2,5 = $36
MEET STATS: 125 - 400 / $680.50 (-$119.50)
BEST BETS: 14 - 36 / $51.00 (-$21.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 36 / $81.90 (+$9.90)
Race 1
(3) LUCYS MAN showed enough improvement last week that I'm willing to take a swing with him at what should be a decent price in a race where it's tough to love anything. (6) EXPLOSIVE JET comes in off two solid tries and he is sure to be chalk here but he may provide the perfect target for the choice. (2) DOMINUM DEO projects to get a decent trip here and he can close to hit the ticket. (4) AMERICAN LEAGUE couldn't close into a quick final 1/4 last time, but he could sneak into the Super here having had a race over the track.
Race 2
(6) MISTER GODRO has the best recent form and he should get the setup that he needs here; top call. (4) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP ran just as it looked like he had the leader in his sights and while that break is concerning, he will contend if he holds it together here. (1) CAPTAIN DRAGON is an infrequent winner who should be closing for a slice vs. these. (7) OH K MAN will be the first leader, but he is likely to hold for only a small share here.
Race 3
(5) THIS DRAGON ROCKS continues to race well every week and she's due for some luck; slight nod. (7) QUITE A SIGHT couldn't last when overbet last week, but this is a better spot for her, and she should be heard from here. (2) ODDS ON STEPHANIE was out of position last week. From a better post, she's a threat here. (1) JAN is capable in this spot, but she may get overbet coming off a vet scratch and I'll play to beat her.
Race 4
(8) BARN ONE got wiped out by a breaking rival when he was making his move in the lane last week. His price will be good here and I'll give him the nod over (3) UPTOWN FUNK, who is logical looking for three straight wins coming off a claim. (1) MAJO LOU BEKA should get a good trip starting from the inside here; using underneath. (9) RACEMUP got lucky last week when the chalk broke and took out every live horse in the process; small share predicted for him.
Race 5
(2) BETWEEN THE SHEETS zigged when he should have zagged last week, and he got stuck down inside with no room. I'll stick with him here. (4) LEGAL BETTOR tipped his hand three starts back when he closed like a wild horse late and he followed that up with two solid tries; using. (10) TALBOTCREEK DUKE is in with an upset chance if he can beat a few of these off the gate but a smaller share is likely from out there. (9) SHRIMP AND GRITS was good in the first leg of the series and he is another who can crack the Super - likely at a solid price.
Race 6
(7) QUADRANGLE followed up a big win with a solid second to a tough winner. He gets top call here. (6) DRAFT YEAR's form is improving, and he should cycle to a win soon; maybe tonight? (9) BEHOLDER is certainly capable vs. this type if ready and she could add some value to the early Pick 4. (2) KUIL DEVA continues to pile up earnings by closing late for purse shares and the assumption is that trend will continue here.
Race 7
(6) ARTISTIC MADISON races best in winter and she should be tough starting from a good post here. (4) SHEZAREALDEAL gets a better post here and that may be all she needs to mount a serious challenge in the lane; using. (1) OUTLAW FIREBALL closes ground every week and she will pop soon, maybe even here in this race. (5) AMERICAN SARA steps up off a solid win and she should be an exotics factor here.
Race 8
(5) FIESTY FIREBALL raced great last week considering he had missed four weeks action prior to that race. He gets top call here with improvement expected. (6) PANTHER SEELSTER was also sharp in defeat and while his price drops here, his chances do not. (8) RONS EOM was bet heavily last week and he roared by late. I'll use him off that effort. (4) BARBAODS was overbet and couldn't get up late. He's not out of this, but others are preferred.
Race 9
(4) DOUBLE A MINT was a winner last week when there was no Mares Preferred and maybe with the streaking Kendall Seelster having missed a week, she can turn the tables here. (2) KENDALL SEELSTER is on a roll and impossible to leave off late Pick 4 tickets. (3) TAJMEALLOVER was a strong 2nd to the choice last week and she should be an exotics factor again here. (1) LAY LADY LAY should sit a good following trip and stick around for a share.
Race 10
(5) VINES TO HEAVEN gets to drop off a sharp effort and she is very logical in this spot. (2) KIMS DESIRE was strong pacing uncovered when notching a big upset. I'll use here in this spot. (8) HOT SPOT HANOVER should get a share making a class drop here. (4) E R RHONDA also gets class relief and she should be heard from in this spot. (6) ON THE MINUTE MARK can leave, sit, then reemerge for a share here.