Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 1/24 Analysis

Meet Stats – 126 – 407 / $686.10 (-$127.90)
Best Bets – 16 – 40 / $53.30 (- $26.70)
Spot Plays – 7 – 40 / $45.00 (-$35.00)
Best Bet – VILLEFRANCHE AS – (6TH)
Spot Play – HOPE FOR HEAVEN – (11TH)
Early Pick 5 – 1,6/2,6/1,6,8/5,6,8/1,2,6 = $21.60
Late Pick 5 – 3/6,7/7,8/2,5,8/1,5,7 = $7.20
Early Pick 4 – 5,6,8/1,2,6/3/6,7 = $18
Late Pick 4 – 7,8/2,5,7/1,5,7/4,6 = $36
Race 1 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 - **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**
(1) WESTFIFTYSECOND fits much better at this level and he should be tough if he stays flat this time. (6) EIGHTOCLOCKSTORM trotted his back 1/2 in 55 3/5 now he faces easier making his second start back since breaking on December 13th. He’s another in with a great chance here if he stays trotting. His odds will drop markedly here. (10) EXCELLENCE has been racing well and he could crack the Tri here off a following trip. (1) CAULFIELD is always a good one to use on the bottom.
Race 2- F&M NW $25,000 L5 or NW of 8 or NW $175,000 LT
This is a field that (6) KENDALL SEELSTER should beat. Expect Filion aggression from the start. (2) SYLPH HANOVER picks up red-hot driver McNair and she is another who could be more aggressive early in this spot; using. (1) POWERFUL CHRIS stacks up well here, but she may need one start as a four-year-old before showing her best. (3) BETTER BE DONNA looks next best and she can take a share here.
Race 3 – NW $6,000 L5 or $13,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000
This is a field that (1) SORTIE should crush if he stays flat; enough said. (8) HEAD TURNING JAG may blast here like he did two starts back when he drew outside, and he is a viable multi-race price option. (6) THE FIXER also takes a class plunge here and he should wake up with a better try. (5) GREAT MAGIC frequently finishes on the edges. He’s a good one to use on the bottom of the Super at a price.
Race 4 – SNOWSHOE - 2ND LEG - 3 & 4 YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS
(8) CONBOYVILLE paced identical 27 3/5 third and final quarters racing on the rim and he fell just short. That is by far the best race of any of these from last week and he gets top call. (5) DGS SHALLWEDANCE improved immediately for hot driver McNair. He’s worth a look for the Pick 5 and Pick 4. (6) SPRINGBRIDGE JIM looked like a new horse with Macdonald in the bike last week, but this is tougher; demand a price. (3) BERNIE has improving form and he should make it onto the Super ticket at a minimum here.
Race 5 – F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(1) MANDY KRIDEN A got a clean line last week which was likely the goal considering her past gait issues. It’s go time now. (6) PASSPORT HANOVER drops and gets Roy. A speed blast is likely here. (2) PICKLES ON TOP tried a wide move as the pace accelerated last time and that wasn’t going to work. She has an outside chance vs. these. (10) KWANTUM KEY also drops and she should wake up with a better effort; using underneath.
Race 6 – NW3 (F&M6) or $46000 (F&M $60,000) LT - Late Pick 5
(3) VILLEFRANCHE AS has impressed this winter, winning three races in a row the hard way racing uncovered on the rim and she will likely prove hard to hold off here, too. (8) ZIG ZAG comes to play every week and he is the logical alternative to the choice. (2) TALBOT EH PLUS hasn’t lost since changing barns but these are much tougher opponents here; small share predicted. (9) KNOPFLER was motoring late last time. A similar trip and finish are possible here; consider at a price for the exotics.
Race 7 – F&M NW $6,500 L5 or $13,000 L10
(7) LADY ROCKNROLLA A dominated in this class two starts back and more of the same is likely here. (6) SUNDAY AFTERNOON is the other class dropper who should improve, and she should be the main threat to the choice. (5) WATCH MY LUCK raced better last time as expected. She can hit the board here. (1) ANDERSON SEELSTER is worthy of exotics consideration on the barn change.
Race 8 - SNOWSHOE - 2ND LEG - 3 & 4 YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS – Pick 4
On paper, this race shapes up as a battle between (7) BETTOR B GOING and (8) WARRAWEE VITAL. Nod goes to the former who will likely impose his will leaving the gate and get position on the latter. (6) BLU CREW has improving form and he should be in the Super. (5) MALL PEEN HAMMER gets Jamieson back here. He could sneak into the exotics at a price.
Race 9 – F&M NW $10,000 L5 or $20,000 L10 or NW 7 Races or NW $110,000 LT
(2) JUST HER LUCK is the class of this race and if she is straightened out now, she will take beating here. (5) TABLES BIG SECRET has been a win machine racing at Flamboro Downs, and she is sharp and dangerous here. (8) KYLIE SEELSTER will likely blast early again, and she should hang around for a share. (9) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE is on a roll, but moving to the worst post here, I prefer to use her on the bottom.
Race 10 – NW $6,500 L5 or $13,000 L10 or NW $55,000 LT
This is a good spot for (7) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP to return to action. She could dominate these if ready. (5) PRETTY HOT often outraces her odds and this should be another spot where she doesn’t get bet. She could add value to the Exacta. (1) TAJMEALLOVER is showing signs of being sharper. She can hit the ticket here at a price. (9) WHISTYS PARADISE will be passing some of these late but a small share is likely her ceiling here.
Race 11 – CLM $15,000 for NW $55,000 LT
(4) HOPE FOR HEAVEN was being pointed to the front at Flamboro when some equipment broke, taking her out of the race. He picks up the hottest driver on the circuit here and gets the nod in a wide-open finale. (6) CHOCOLATE SWIRL loomed, then stalled last week. Coming back quicker now should make a difference; using. (8) NO TIME AT ALL comes back in four days following a decent effort; price look. (9) DON’T DILLY DALLY fits this class well, but from post 9 I’ll use him underneath. (5) CHIK MAGUIRE is a good one to use in the 4-5 slots of the Super and High-5.