Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 12/21 Analysis
Best Bet: BETTORS UP (8th)
Spot Play: PARISIAN BLUE CHIP (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,3,5,6,7/2,3,4/4,6,7/4/8,9,10 = $45
EARLY PICK 4: 4/8,9,10/7,8/7,9 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 7,9/8/3/4,5,8,9,10 = $10
MEET STATS: 90 - 270 / $499.90 (-$40.10)
BEST BETS: 10 - 24 / $37.40 (-$10.60)
SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 26 / $64.20 (+$12.20)
Race 1
(5) DOTTIE got a more aggressive steer last time and trotted a strong mile. She fits well here and could notch her second win if she finds some cover this time. (6) SEVERUS HANOVER wasn't bad last week racing off the shelf and McNair sticks. That's good enough for me to use him here. (3) REGAL MAGICIAN is capable, but he needs to stay flat and that seems to be about a 50/50 proposition. (1) AMITYVILLE LINDY rarely wins, but off his most recent mile, he's usable in this field.
Race 2
(4) MISS ROCKADALI takes the plunge into claimers here and there's a strong chance she'll win and get taken. (3) NASTY RUMOUR raced okay in a claiming handicap last time now tries a conditioned claimer which gives her a shot if the chalk falters. (2) WOODMERE WYLDSTYLE also comes off a decent try vs. a repeat winner and she's the third one I'll use in this Pick 5. (6) MALNIFICENT rarely misses the board and she's a must-use underneath here.
Race 3
(4) BARNEY MAC takes a big plunge here and he will get heavily bet, but he's better than these when he's on his game. (7) SLIP INTO GLIDE is hard to leave out with the autumn he is having. He's the main danger. (6) MASSMADE has done well recently with Roy driving and he could benefit if the top two hook up at some point. (3) PRINCESS JULIEANN is a good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 4
(4) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP unleashed an impressive and lethal burst around the last turn to easily win her comeback race and off that effort, she's a single for me here. (1) JAN tripped out to win her comeback race but these are tougher - especially the choice; exacta factor. (2) THIS DRAGON ROCKS was a solid runner-up to the choice and she should factor again. (7) BETTIM JACKIE drops but this is no easy spot; small share predicted.
Race 5
(10) THINK AGAIN is on a roll and goes back to a high percentage barn here. The 10-hole may not matter. (8) P L IDAHO drops, and he figures on paper here, but with him, you never know which version of him will show up. When he's good, he can be very good, but often he is hard to handle. (9) LATE NIGHT drops back to the claimed level and gets a positive driver change; using. (6) PRICE GIOVANNI should get a good pace to close into here and he could easily better this prediction with the anticipated pace shape of this race.
Race 6
(8) WINNING LYRIC gets placed to win again while his form is good, because he's not known for holding it for extended stretches. I'll stick with him once again. (7) TAURUS DU PARC fits this class well and attracts McClure; using. (3) DOMINUM DEO is in solid form and makes sense as a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers. (5) BROADWAY MAIJA compiled a solid record this year and dropping into a claimer for a start over Mohawk she should be heard from.
Race 7
(9) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ goes back to Moreau here and he got stalled just long enough last week that he couldn't go with the winner who was making a big wide move. I think he turns the tables here. (7) JIMMY BE GOOD is as good as he gets right now and a must-use in the Pick 4's. (8) NOW WHAT HANOVER is always in the battle and he should make the Tri or Super in this field. (2) REIKI dropped and popped but this is much tougher; small share predicted.
Race 8
(8) BETTORS UP got untracked when dropped in class last week and this is another field that she should have no trouble handling. (5) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE was a good third to the choice and she could get closer here with a better trip. (2) MACHNHOPE continues to race well and she should be an exotics factor again. (7) COUSIN MARY has improving form; consider using underneath at a price.
Race 9
(3) ARTISTIC MADISON takes a big class plunge to the bottom condition level here; now or never. (6) VILLAGE JAMIE comes off a solid Flamboro win and she could add value to the exotics here. (8) NO MO FO JOE drops and should be closing to take a smaller share. (2) PICKLES ON TOP ships in for a barn that has been live; consider using on the bottom.
Race 10
(9) REIS STAR CROSS ships in to face what appears to be easier and she has shipped in and beaten better than these before; top call. (8) DOCS SAUSALITO is at the top of her game and she can be right there despite the class jump. (4) KIWI FOCUS drops and has a chance to pop; using. (10) NEON MOON was decent vs. a tough one last time. She could explode the board here if she gets put into the race. (5) BIG CHUTE is another that I'll use in this Pick 4 in what should be a spread race.