Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 12/20 Analysis

Meet Stats – 82 – 257 / $461.60 (-$52.40)

Best Bets – 11 – 25 / $36.50 (- $13.50)

Spot Plays – 4 – 25 / $33.30 (-$16.70)

Best Bet – REFI – (7TH)

Spot Play - WATCH MY LUCK – (6TH)

Pick 5 – 1,2,7/1,2,6/4,5/1,2,9/3,7 =$21.60

Early Pick 4 – 1,2,9/3,7/1,2,5,8/2,8 = $48

Late Pick 4 – 3,5,7/2,3/4,5,6/4,5 = $36

Race 1 - F&M 4YO and Younger NW $7,100 LT - GTD $50,000 Pick 5

(1) HALLSGLENSMAVIS seems to do well only when Roy is driving and he handles the reins here in a winnable spot; top call. (7) CHASETHECLOUDSAWAY should go better here in her second start back and she should get more aggressive early in the race. She's on my Pick 5 ticket. (2) KEEP LOOKING showed promise in her lone qualifier and this isn't the toughest spot to make a debut. The tote could provide some clues with this one. (5) FILTER HANOVER can close again to take a small slice.

Race 2- CLM $15,000 for NW $52,000 Lt

(6) SOMBRE showed good closing power last week and while he is still 1 for 35 lifetime, he may not find a better spot to notch that elusive second victory. (1) TYMAL TINO raced well in defeat to a class-dropper and he looks like the main threat. (2) ARCHWAY brings solid form in from the B-tracks and his sharp gate speed is sure to be utilized by driver Roy; using. (4) DEBT COLLECTOR can take a share vs. these if he stays flat this time.

Race 3 - F&M 4YO and Younger NW 1 or $18,000 LT

(5) BIG NARANCIA was bet like she couldn't lose last week but the winner sprinted away from her at the head of the lane and she had to settle for second. She looks good vs. this group. (4) SHEBESAILIN gets to face non-winners-of-one here again and she should be the one they are all trying to catch as they turn into the lane. (2) FARMGIRL TOUGH has a good closing kick on her best day; consider using underneath. (1) PASSION STRUCK could be a surprise package here with McNair driving. Give her a look if she is a price.

Race 4 - F&M 4YO and Younger NW 2 or $37,000 LT - GTD $50,000 Pick 4

(9) BETSEA was well-backed despite drawing the worst last week and she was an easy winner; call to repeat. (2) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL looked good breaking her maiden in her 13th try and she may have turned a corner. She should be a threat here. (1) PLAYA DUHARAS was second to the choice and she is not out of this considering her good current form. (3) WALK ON AIR exits a fast race where she tired late. She should last longer vs. these.

Race 5 - CLM HDCP $12,000 TO $15,000

(7) SEVERUS HANOVER was used up early last week vs. better and now he drops back to the level at which he was claimed three starts back. He gets the nod vs. these. (3) HOPES SOLO went a long trip last time and hung in well, considering. She could win here if she gets a better trip. (4) HELLO CHIPPER doesn't win often but from an improved post here, he is in with an upset chance. (8) SNAPSHOT SPRINGS is worth a look on the barn change while dropping in for a tag.

Race 6 - F&M NW $10,000 L5 or $21,500 L10 or NW $65,000 LT AE: NW $65,000 LT

(2) WATCH MY LUCK has a mark of 1:51-flat this year over this track and her 27-flat kicker from her qualifier indicates that she could be ready to fly. She is quite capable of beating these if ready. (5) DEB won as an overlay last week and her tactical speed always has her in the mix. (8) HIGH ROLLING A was too far back last week to make an impact and she could suffer the same fate here if she takes back, but she does have the speed needed to blast early. She can win this with the right trip. (1) THATS INCREDIBLE is another to consider in a contentious dash where it makes sense to price shop.

Race 7 - NW4 (F&M6) or $56,500 LT

(8) REFI was impressive last week, and you don't see many producing 27 2/5 late speed racing uncovered at the NW3 level in December. He gets the call to repeat. (2) LAPPED BY LINDY showed nice late speed in his qualifier and he is capable here; using. (9) PIKACHU HANOVER is on a roll, but missing a start due to lameness is concerning and now he draws worst; your call. (1) CAREY ON should be in the mix for at least a share.

Race 8 - F&M NW $3,000 L5 or NW $7,200 L10

(3) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION cuts back to a mile for her second start in this class and she can beat these if she lays closer early. (7) MAKE MINE MOCHA is capable of a good effort at this level and her price should be good in this spot. (5) PICKLES ON TOP raced well here at this class level last winter and she could make an impact right away for a sharp barn. (2) BIDFORA HUG can get a better trip here and she is in the exotics mix.

Race 9 - NW4 (F&M6) or $56,500 LT

(3) SWAN BEFORE ALL won last time he raced this low and you know McNair will be sending him here; top call. (2) LEFKADA raced tough last week vs. a persistent rival who needed a 27 2/5 kicker to get past her. She is the main danger. (9) WESTFIFTYSECOND drops one level and he is worth a look at a price in this spot. (5) NORTHERN ROYALE has great form, but she has missed five weeks. She is one I'll look to beat here.

Race 10 – F&M NW $6,000 L5 or NW $14,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000

(6) KYRIE SEELSTER had two starts back and now she gets her main driver McNair and drops. She should be tough in here. (4) BLACK JACK PAT kicked home well without threatening and now she too gets to drop; can be a threat here. (5) TAJMEALLOVER has raced well here in the past and her qualifier says ready; using. (7) ST SOMEWHERE can last longer in this spot if she gets sent again. Consider using her underneath.

Race 11 – CLM HDCP $8,000 to $12,000

(5) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE draws better and drops back to the claimed level here. He should rebound with a better effort. (4) E L WILD SPIRIT is right there every week at this class and he should be the main threat to the choice. (9) DARCEE N - with 15 third-place finishes in 40 starts this year – is a good one to use to round out the Tri. (2) STELIOS was used hard early to make front last week and he paid the price late. He should get a better trip here and land in the High-5. (1) UNPRECEDENTED is another who can get a good trip starting from the inside and take a small slice.