Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 11/9 Analysis
Best Bet: KATNESS S BG (10th)
Spot Play: NORTHERN GLITZ (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4,5/1,2,7/1,8/3,5,8/2,3,6 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,8/2,3,6/1,3/1,8,10 = $54
LATE PICK 4: ALL/8/1,6/5 = $20
MEET STATS: 11 - 40 / $71.40 (-$8.60)
BEST BETS: 3 - 4 / $14.50 (+$6.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 4 / $11.10 (+$3.10)
Race 1
(3) RUE HANOVER made a threatening first-over move on the chalky leader last time, but she couldn't sustain it. She looks like one of the best ones in here; just needs a better trip. (4) LOVELY DONNA finished ahead of the choice in that race, but she rode the pocket throughout. She's another that I'll use in the Pick 5. (5) FRESH EYES takes a drop and she should wake up here with a better try. (6) VANITY GIRL ships north with some okay form. She can take a slice here.
Race 2
Tough race. (2) FOR THE RECORD would beat these on her best effort and perhaps the move inside will help wake her up. (1) TOBINS TERROR raced against a tough shipper twice but that one is gone now, and she should be a contender here. (7) SHE CAN PARTY changed tactics last time and raced evenly after giving up the lead. She's another who can win this with a trip. (4) VINES TO HEAVEN is better than she showed last time; consider for exotics.
Race 3
I'll swing for the fences here with (8) NORTHERN GLITZ, mostly on the barn change which has produced several nice-priced winners here in the past. (1) JMR PINARELLO was 2nd to a strong winner last time and he rates highly here. (6) SOMBRE has improving form and he wouldn't be the worst stab in the world here. (7) ENCARNACION may get overbet dropping out of a stakes series, but he isn't out of this.
Race 4
(3) SHADOW MOON raced much better last week, but he was no match for the winner who was long gone. He fits well here; slight nod. (5) WESTSLUCKY TERROR was a game opening leg winner and he should be tough right back here; using. (8) DISMISSAL SLIP has been sharp in all his races since he returned, and he can win this if he gets put into action early enough. (6) BIT OF LUCK rarely misses the Super. I'll use him underneath in this spot.
Race 5
(3) KLOOF STREET is usually tough in this class and she should get sent off the gate here looking to wire this field; top call. (2) TWENTY THREE RED is another who normally races tough at this level; using. (6) AMERICAN SARA flew home last week as chalk to get up on the wire and she could do here again if the pace is solid. (7) BUTTERMILK HANOVER is a great earner but infrequent winner. She should close for a slice again.
Race 6
(3) ARRIVAL motored home in each of her last two starts. She only needs a bit of racing luck to notch a win here. (1) INTREPID LADY is another sharp closer who figures to benefit from a solid early pace. (7) DOCS DARLIN is right there every week but she tends to hang late; using underneath. (4) SAND ARTIST broke through last time after 23 failed tries to break her maiden but she's sharp and she can contend here.
Race 7
(8) E R RHONDA is a win machine who moves into a capable barn and she may get ignored in the wagering with the rise in class; upset special. (1) SHEZAREALDEAL bombed at even money last week, but that allowed her to drop again and she could trip out here starting from the rail. (10) RUBIS PRESCOTT has plenty enough class to contend in this spot and post position may boost her price. (7) DONTBRUISECARRIE was a narrow loser in this class two starts back and she's another who could take this contentious dash.
Race 8
(8) PHANTOM SEELSTER was so impressive last week that he should be tough to beat here if he gets the same aggressive steer. (5) MISSION THREE is capable of better and from an improved post a better effort should be coming. (1) FOOT SOLDIER is in a good spot to trip out here and hit the ticket. (4) STRATOSPHERE can get a similar trip to the one he had last week and take a smaller share.
Race 9
The very good version of (6) KENDALL SEELSTER came to play last week and her rivals were no match; call to repeat. (1) EXHILARATED is in a prime spot to get her favorite trip here which makes her a danger. (2) WITCH DALI has tailed off a bit, but her class should carry her to a share here. (4) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE continues to perform at a high level despite moving into the top class; consider for exotics.
Race 10
(5) KATNISS S BG takes a massive class drop here and she should handle this group. (3) CAYO LOCO will get ignored off her London form, but she's capable of crashing the exotics at a price racing in this class. (8) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE was live last week but simply out-tripped. She should be able to make the board in this field. (1) ROBINTHEATM got on a roll out of town, but this is a steep step up; small share predicted. (2) LEAVING A LEGACY can share here if she stays flat this time.