Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 11/22 Analysis

Meet Stats – 46 – 136 / $258.90 (-$13.10)
Best Bets – 6 – 13 / $22.80 (- $3.20)
Spot Plays – 3 – 13/ $29.20 (+$3.20)
Best Bet – JUST MY SHADOW – (4TH)
Spot Play – SWAN BEFORE ALL – (1ST)
Pick 5 – 4,6,10/1,2,4/1,4.8/1,4/4,6 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 1,4/4,6/3,4,5/2,7,10 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 2,7,10/5,8,11/1,9/1,7 = $36
Race 1 – NW5 (F&M7) or $71,000 (F&M $124,500) LT **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(6) SWAN BEFORE ALL gets Roy back here and three starts back this duo teamed up for this gelding’s latest win. Speed blast coming? (10) VENUS DUHARAS is in top form and driver Young has been a good teamster for her. The big question here is how she will get away from the second tier considering the #1 and #2 show no gate speed. Don’t be shocked if she lines up behind the #3 horse for the start. (4) TEDDYS LITTLEANGEL has improving form and she’s another that is in the mix in the opening leg of the Pick 5 and 3rd leg of the Crossover Pick 4. (7) OH SO PINE got held up as Venus Duharas was trotting away last week. I prefer to use him underneath.
Race 2 – F&M NW $10,000 L5 or NW $20,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000
(1) WITCH DALI returned to good form last week and she should take beating in this field. (2) PRETTY HOT is razor-sharp lately and she should offer a good price on the double class jump; using. (4) ROLL WITH SPARKY had no excuse last week when she failed to convert on the class drop but she remains a viable contender at this level. (5) COUSIN MARY is gritty and capable of an upset with the right trip.
Race 3 – NW 3 (F&M6) OR $40,000 (F&M $50,000)
(8) REFI ships into Mohawk Park in good form and he goes for one of the top trotting barns; top call. (1) ROYAL ESTEEM has 14 exacta finishes in 23 starts and she is in solid form. She will likely be the one to hold off late. (4) ROSE RUN UNCLEBUCK will likely be heading for the front leaving the gate and he could lead these a long way if he clears quickly. (2) WESTFIFTYSECOND has only one win this year but he shares frequently, and he can make it into the Super this time.
Race 4 – F&M 5YO and Younger NW3 or $57,000 LT – **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(4) JUST MY SHADOW has already beat similar twice and last time she started in the second tier after missing a month’s action and raced evenly. Sharp improvement is expected here. (1) DRESS TO THE NINES should improve here exiting the Harvest series. She’s on my multi-race tickets. (7) CHARMBO BRIE was relentless last week and an unlucky loser. She’s not out of this but I’m not sure what trip she can work out starting from out there. (5) TRIP ACES HANOVER was raced into defeat by Charmbo Brie then they both got picked off. She should be good for another share here.
Race 5 – F&M NW $6,100 L5 or $13,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $15,000
(4) SYLPH HANOVER has been facing the toughest sophomore filly pacers regularly and she should find this lower conditioned race vs. elders easier; top call. (6) SUNDAY AFTERNOON is always raced aggressively when she drops this far, and she will be hard to pass if she makes front quickly. Don’t take her lightly in this spot. (2) BIDFORA HUG drops and she should close for a piece of this. (3) INVERSE HANOVER steps up off a nice win in New Jersey but she may find the top duo too tough here.
Race 6 – F&M CLM $15,000 for NW $60,000 LT
(3) AUDI BAYAMA roared home to win while drifting out last week and she is priced to repeat in this conditioned claimer. Both (4) KICKIN COWGIRL and (5) CAFÉ SOCIETY should improve sharply exiting the Harvest series. It makes sense to price shop in this race. (1) ALLY ELIZABETH is likely to sit a following trip and take another slice.
Race 7 – F&M NW $15,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $160,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000 – Pick 4
(2) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP beat similar from a worse post two starts back then tried the top class. She should be tough here from post 2. (7) BETTER BE DONNA N is another who gets to take a class dive here and she was a winner last time she raced at this level on October 2nd; using. (10) LIT DE ROSE can get a good trip starting from the second tier this time and she in another who can win this. (5) DON’T STOP BELIEVIN is razor-sharp but this is a tougher version of this class; using underneath.
Race 8 – NW $6,000 L5 or $13,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000 – 1 3/8 Miles
(8) WHAT A RUSH raced great at the extended distance on November 1st, but it’s hard to win anywhere from fifth-over. He can do here if he gets moving a bit earlier to avoid being on excess cover. (11) O NARUTAC PERFETTO fits well at this level and he will be dangerous if he finds a live helmet to follow. (5) ENCARNACION has more gate speed than you see on the program page and this is a spot where Filion may decide to use it; beware. (1) ROCK MY MUSCLES races out of a top trotting barn after shipping in; give him a look for the exotics.
Race 9 – F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000 LT
(1) BETSEA raced okay in the Harvest series and this is a spot where she should improve sharply; top call. (9) PLAYA DUHARAS reversed her form last week and a repeat of that mile makes her a contender despite her post. (3) FARMGIRL TOUGH also is in an easier spot here and she will be coming in the lane. (8) LYONS TILT HANOVER trounced weaker racing in the snow. I see her as a fringe player here.
Race 10 – F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $8,000 L10
(1) VINES TO HEAVEN drops, cuts back in distance and moves inside. She should wake up in this spot. (7) SLY ELEANOR N is coming around now and she has beaten better than these before; using. (9) KAYS SHADOW typically races well at this level and she should be good for another slice here. (6) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY raced better last week and she could better this placing if she is closer to the leaders at the 3/4 pole. (10) AINT THREE OK should get a good trip following the choice here; consider for the exotics.