Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 11/15 Analysis

Meet Stats – 32 – 94 / $159.00 (-$29.00)
Best Bets – 3 – 9 / $6.00 (- $13.00)
Spot Plays – 2 – 9 / $6.30 (-$12.70)
Best Bet – SPORTIKA – 4TH
Spot Play – SPLURGE ON ME – 3RD
Pick 5 – 2,5,7/1/3,8/1/ALL = $12
Early Pick 4 – 1/1,6,8,10/3,6/2,3,5 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 2,3,5/2,3,7,10/6,7/7,10 = $48
Race 1 – NW4 (F&M5) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000LT) - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(2) LEFKADA was sent first-up into the fastest part of the race last week and the leader was sprinting at that point. She hung in there and she can win this with a better trip; top call. (5) ROYAL ESTEEM was driven aggressively by Roy to win two starts back and that driver returns here; using. (7) TRIX AND STONES was closing well at the end of last week’s mile; consider for exotics. (3) WINGS OF SPEED is capable of better. He exits the same race as the choice, and he should be closer here.
Race 2 – F&M NW $11,000 L5 or $20,300 L10
(1) ROLL WITH SPARKY takes a big drop here and draws inside. She should be tough here as Filion will likely look to take control of this race early. (4) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION is helped by the shorter field here and she should be flying late; Exacta factor. (2) MANHATTAN AGAIN steps back up off a win and she is likely best used underneath here. (5) HELLO LOVE is always in the mix and she should get a piece of this.
Race 3 – NW5 races or $70,000 lifetime
(3) SPLURGE ON ME looked impressive last week facing her own gender but this race doesn’t look any tougher. She should prove tough to beat here. (8) JUMPSHOT woke up last time when given a classic Roy front-end drive. He looks like the main danger. (6) SOUTHWIND CASHA has improving form but she would need to be a second faster here to take down the choice; using underneath. (4) TEDDYS LITTLEANGEL was 4th to the choice last week when coming off a short break. She can contend for a share here.
Race 4 – F&M 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT - **$50K GTD Pick 4 **
(1) SPORTIKA blew a similar field away last week and anything close to a repeat makes her very hard to beat here. (4) LIL SCREAMER was a distant third to the choice. She looks like an Exacta factor in this spot, however. (3) PLAYA DUHARAS is worth a look for the exotics on the barn change in this spot. (7) SHES GOT GAME brings some decent form in from Ottawa and she could land in the Super at a price here.
Race 5 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(6) BIG BANG BOOM drops to a likely spot here and he should get an aggressive steer in this spot. (8) ISITFRIDAYYET didn’t have much to offer racing first up in an extended distance race but he had been off since June and that race should help his fitness level. A much better try could be coming here. (1) LEAFS AND WINGS was likely cost a win last time when a horse pulled late in front of him, pushing him three-wide early in the mile. He has upset before when shipping in here; beware. (10) ARTISTIC PICK could get a nice trip here leaving from the second tier. Consider using on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 6 – F&M NW $15,300 L5 or $30,500 L10 or NW $110,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000
(3) DON’T STOP BELEIVIN paced a big mile in defeat to a very good filly last week and she gets top call here. (6) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE drops to a spot where she is usually very tough, and she should be in the mix throughout here. (2) OUR VACATION will be closing as always, and the short field helps her here. (5) DEB is another who should be in contention here but the top two may be too tough.
Race 7 – NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT
(5) BIRTHDAY MAGIC looks best here, but he needs to stay trotting, obviously. (3) BRA IN THE WIND raced decently in the Harvest Series with Cullen driving and he returns here; using. (2) TROTSKYIST raced big at huge odds last time and while his price will drop here, he does fit well, and I’ll use him in the Pick 4’s. (7) FINAL ANSWER showed some late pep last week. Consider using him on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 8 – F&M NW $6,900 L5 or NW $16,000 L10 AE OPT CLM $15,000 – 1 3/8 Miles
(3) COUSIN MARY had a race at this distance now she gets to take another class drop. I expect driver Harris to try to control this race. (10) MACHNHOPE also drops and the second-tier post can be good for her in this spot; using. (7) SOS BAMBIE produced a sharp effort in defeat racing in this class last time and she could be dangerous if she makes front early here. (2) THIS DRAGON ROCKS beat similar two starts back when leaving from a worse post. She is another to consider in a contentious race.
Race 9 – F&M PREFERRED
(7) KENDAL SEELSTER is razor sharp now and she will be tough looking for a repeat as she looks to take down rival (6) DOUBLE A MINT again. The latter has had a great season – earning more than $250,000 racing at mostly this level – and she can’t be counted out. (1) SO MUCH MORE comes off an impressive win, but this is tougher; smaller share predicted. (2) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP also steps up off a sharp win, but she is unlikely to threaten the top two.
Race 10 – F&M NW of 3 races or $54,000 lifetime
(10) JUST MY SHADOW beat similar last week with a nice late move now she gets the second tier post leaving behind one that typically gets off the gate well; top call. (7) WESTBEACH raced tough last week and produced some high late speed. Her first 2019 win should be coming soon. (5) CHARMBO BRIE was right with Westbeach on the wire and she should be in the mix here. (1) TRIP ACES HANOVER should get a good trip here after leaving well. She should be in the High-5 at a minimum. (9) GIGGLE HANOVER is racing well but from this post a smaller share is likely her ceiling.