Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 10/4 Analysis

Meet Stats – 315 – 888 / $1,581.70 (-$142.30)
Best Bets – 53 - 86 / $155,20 (-$16.80)
Spot Plays – 26– 86 / $121.50 (- $50.50)
Best Bet – SPRINGBRIDGEVISION (6TH)
Spot Play – LIT DE ROSE (2ND)
Pick 5 – 4,5/2,3/1,2,3,7/4,6/8 = $6.40
Early Pick 4 – 4,6/8/5/2,3,5,6 = $8
Late Pick 4 – 2,3,5,6/1,5/7,8/1,4,10 = $48
Race 1 – F&M 5YO and Younger NW4 or $45,000 LT - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(4) JUST MY SHADOW hinted a form reversal might be coming by closing in 26 1/5 two starts back then last week she delivered a new life’s-best effort; call to repeat. (5) BETCHA BABY wasn’t that far behind the choice now she moves to a better post. She should be the main threat. (2) CHOCOLATEMILKTOAST showed little at Flamboro but she fits well here, and she can come on late to take a share. (1) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH should get another good trip here and if she happens to land in the choice’s pocket early, she will likely finish higher than predicted here.
Race 2 – F&M NW $10,000 L5 or $21,000 L9 AE: OPT CLM $90,000 LT
(3) LIT DE ROSE raced well in a fast mile despite having missed a month. She gets top call here. (2) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE is in solid form and she figures to get a quicker start here which puts her squarely in the picture. (4) BLACK JACK PAT should improve here moving off the 10-hole; using underneath. (5) CATCH AN ACE is a good one to use in the 3-4 slots here.
Race 3 – 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000
(1) GO TIME has the best recent form in a race where there is little of it; slight nod. (2) GALAXY SEELSTER faces much easier here and he has to improve if he stays flat. (3) P C JUSTA DREAM is improving, and she wasn’t far behind the choice last time; using. (7) INCREDIBLE WHINER has yet to finish in the Exacta, but he too shows improving form and Filion may decide to send him this time. I’ll toss him in the Pick 5.
Race 4 – F&M NW $10,000 L5 or $21,000 L9 or NW $90,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $25,000 - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(4) WINDSUN GLORY has excuses in her last two now she drops again to a level where she should be very tough. (6) MANDY KRIDEN A was very impressive in her October 1 qualifier and she is in with a big shot here. (8) COUSIN MARY races hard every week and she’s not out of this but she could be in for a rough trip leaving from the worst post. (5) SO LONG DARLING raced well at this class last time, but this is a tougher spot; using underneath.
Race 5 – NW $3,000 L5 or $8,700 L9
(8) MEMO faces elders here, but that has to be much easier than racing against the top sophomore trotter on the continent. He should wake up in this spot. (3) PRESTO CHANGE O should go better here moving to an inside post; Exacta factor. (5) ADVERSITY also moves to a much better post and he is worth a look at what may be a square price here. (2) SONOFAMILLIONAIRE is a good one to use on the bottom of the Super in this spot.
Race 6 – Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies NW $12,000 L5
(5) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION had an impossible trip last time in a Grassroots race. She will be tough in this short field. (2) CLEARLY BETTER took a new life’s mark last time and she is worth including in this Pick 4 with her improving form. (1) CHARMBO BRIE has been facing some tough fillies lately. She should be close here. (6) BE BEST should be the pacesetter if she stays flat this time, but I’ll use her underneath in this spot.
Race 7 – NW3 (F&M5) or $44,000 (F&M $50,000) LT – Pick 4
(5) ROYAL RHYTHM finds a good spot here to notch her fourth win if she gets put into the race early enough; slight nod. (6) SETTE DEO won in this class last week and she should be respected in her current form. (3) DARK AS A POCKET was third in a Grand Circuit race when last seen at Mohawk Park; using. (4) SWAN BEFORE ALL should be rallying late for another share here.
Race 8 – 3YO Fillies
(5) SUNNY DEE comes off a track record performance at Flamboro Downs and she gets the nod over (1) IDEATION HANOVER who returns from a successful trip to Delaware, Ohio where she finished 2nd in the Jugette. (3) POWERFUL CHRIS is better than she has shown in her last two starts and she isn’t without a shot here. (4) LOVELY DONNA will be closing late and passing a few of these.
Race 9 – F&M Preferred
(7) DOUBLE A MINT and (8) KENDALL SEELSTER exit Grand Circuit competition and face six rivals stepping up in class. These two mares should fight it out. Slight nod to the former who gets Roy back for this. (5) LYONS HEDGEABET is in great form and she can rally to round out the Tri. (3) ROLL WITH SPARKY comes off a fast win, but this is a big step up; for a smaller share only.
Race 10 – Ontario Sired 3YO NW $10,000 L5
(4) PRICELESS BEACH should be tough in this spot if he can stay pacing this time. (1) THE REGULATOR should take an aggressive approach here and he could pop in this spot. (10) PERKINS appeared to run into the leader’s wheel last time, causing the break in stride. He can provide some exotics value here. (2) BATTLE STRONG has finished in the top five in all his past six starts; using underneath. (3) PRESTIGE SEELSTER can improve sharply here moving inside; consider for the exotics.