Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 10/25 Analysis

Meet Stats – 362– 1023 / $1,845.30 (-$200.70)
Best Bets – 62 - 97 / $181.50 (-$10.50)
Spot Plays – 30 – 97 / $149.80 (- $42.20)
Best Bet – LYONS HEDGEABET – (4TH)
Spot Play – IDEAL JET (5TH)
Early Pick 5 – 1,3,8/2,3,8/1,4,5,6,7/2/1,5 = $18
Early Pick 4 – 2/1,5/1,2,4,5,10/1 = $10
Late Pick 5 - 1,2,4,5,10/1/9/3,5,7/7,8,9 = $9
Late Pick 4 – 3,5,7/9/6,7,8/1,4,7 = $27
Race 1 - F&M NW $12,500 L5 or $20,000 L10 or NW $92,500 LT AE: OPT CLM $25,000 - **$100K GTD Pick 5**
(8) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION gets Macdonald back here and he has had success with her in the past. She could get a setup at a price; slight nod in the opener of a great weekend of racing. (3) SUNDAY AFTERNOON is usually put into play early when she races at this class and she should be in the hunt throughout here. (1) SPORTS FLIX finished a good third to a tough mare last time and she picks up white-hot driver Dunn. Give her a Pick 5 look here. (2) OUR VACATION should be closing late to take a piece of this.
Race 2 – NW $10,000 L5 or NW $20,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000
(2) SUPERLATIVE has hit her best stride and if she lays close enough, she can beat these. (3) HEMI SEELSTER has missed some time but he is capable vs. these. He can also get very hot pre-race so take a look at him in the post parade. (8) O NARUTAC PERFETTO drops and he gets his main driver back. He can win this, but he is likely going to be camped near the back at the 3/4 pole getting ready to try to pass them all. (4) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO steps up in class but he is sharp and worth including in Tris and Supers at a price.
Race 3 – NW 5 (F&M7) or $70,000 (F&M $87,500) LT. AE: NW 2 in 2018-19 AE: ONT SIRED 3YO
(7) COOL MUSCLE trotted a big back 1/2 after starting from the 10-hole last time and he returns quicker here; top call. (4) GOLD EDITION is razor sharp and his excellent current form should be respected in this spot. (1) HP TITANIA RUNNER is capable of a big late kick when she brings her best race. I’ll use her in this Pick 5. (6) KNIGHT ANGEL blew up at the start of the Superfinal but he is typically sure-gaited, and he should bounce back here; using underneath.
Race 4 – F&M NW $25,000 L5 or NW $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000 - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(2) LYONS HEDGEABET was driven hard by Tetrick last week and she almost beat a better mare who isn’t in this race. She gets top call here. (9) SO MUCH MORE is fast and classy, and she is a threat here despite her post. (4) KYLIE SEELSTER rarely misses the board and she should be around the money at the finish in this spot. (1) WINDSUN GLORY is sharp but these are tougher, and I’ll use her underneath in this spot.
Race 5 – NW $11,000 L5 or NW $22,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
Look at the last time (1) IDEAL JET raced in this class on September 7th. You know Roy is sending the Jet on a speed mission here. (5) PEDRO HANOVER also drops, and he will be closing but the choice could get away from him racing at this level. (2) AMERICAN VIRGIN should race better leaving from an inside post. I’ll use him on the bottom of Tris and Supers here. (7) BRODYS SCRAPPER typically finishes on the fringes racing in this class and he is another one to use in the 3-4 slots here.
Race 6 – BREEDERS CROWN - FINAL – 2 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT - **$100K GTD Pick 5**
(4) DIP ME HANOVER was only racing for the third time in five weeks last time when she finished evenly in her elimination. She should be sharper here and she has already won a Grand Circuit race over this track in September; call to upset. (1) HYPNOTIC AM was taken down for the first time last week by (2) SISTER SLEDGE. Both are top-class fillies that are hard to leave off this opening leg of the Pick 5. (10) RAMONA HILL was passively driven last week and now she draws the 10-hole which puts her in an obviously tough spot. If you still like her, at least you know the price is going to be a lot better here.
Race 7 – BREEDERS CROWN – FINAL - 2YO FILLY PACE
(1) LYONS SENTINEL has been dynamite all year and she is unbeaten racing over this track. Tetrick should grab control of this race on the backstretch; top call. (4) NEW YEAR impressed last week grinding out a first-over win and she can provide some value to the Exacta here. (3) PRICELESS was also impressive but she was allowed to pace unchallenged on the lead the entire mile. You know that won’t happen here. Local hope (2) ALICORN has had a tremendous season and she can’t be counted out in what should be a great race.
Race 8 – BREEDERS CROWN – FINAL – 2YO COLT AND GELDING TROT
(9) REAL COOL SAM got up to keep his win streak alive at Lexington and while this will only be his third race in 6 1/2 weeks, the freshness factor likely plays to his favor this late in the year. He is strictly the horse to beat here. (4) AMIGO VOLO made a big recovery to make it into this final after breaking early as the odds-on choice in his elimination. That he has broken in two straight races is an obvious concern, but there is no doubting his talent and if he behaves, he should be right there at the wire. (8) CAPRICORNUS raced great here in the Wellwood Memorial and his speed and consistency should be respected in this spot. Having Tetrick in the bike is an obvious bonus for this colt and we probably haven’t seen his best race yet. (7) THIRD SHIFT was making an eye-catching move in the final turn in his elimination, but he went wider than necessary as the pocket-sitter was finding racing room. He was a bit unlucky to get beat there and he can offer some exotics value here.
Race 9 – BREEDERS CROWN – FINAL – 2YO COLTS AND GELDINGS PACE
(7) TALL DARK STRANGER paced his slowest final 1/4 last week in the elimination which makes me think he wasn’t fully cranked for that start. He should be sharper here and he can turn the tables on rival (3) PAPI ROB HANOVER who is obviously very sharp and should be respected when making multi-race tickets. (5) CAPT MIDNIGHT has had a great year, but he finished behind the two choices in the Metro; your call.(4) CATTLEWASH was a good third last week to the top two. He should enter contention for the Tri or Super here.
Race 10 – 5YO and Younger NW5 or $50,000 LT
(9) LYONS PEGASUS has been on fire and he takes the next logical step up here and he picks up Tetrick. A fourpeat looms. (8) CLIFFHANGER can blast and sit a trip here and he is one to look at as a possible upsetter. (7) JAY EYE EM beat elders at Flamboro Downs and he is another that I am going to use on the 20-cent Pick 5 ticket as a price option here. (6) MACHDAVID was 4th twice to the choice recently; use on the bottom.
Race 11 – F&M NW $3,650 L5 or $9,600 L10
(8) ANDERSON SEELSTER paced a big mile in defeat last week and she was picked off by a classy mare. A similar effort puts her right there. (6) BLACK JACK PAT was a big winner last time she raced this low. She is a drop-and-pop candidate. (7) SLY ELEANOR N is a consistently good mare who can move up here in her second start back from a break; using. (2) ROYALTYWESTHO also drops but she is stuck on one win this year and I prefer to use her on the bottom.
Race 12 – F&M NW $7,500 L5 or NW $16,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $15,000
(7) PRESCIENT BEAUTY got back on track last week and she looked good doing it; call to repeat. (4) UNDEFIABLE raced tough on the engine last week and she is a sharp contender to consider for the late Pick 4. (1) SOS BAMBIE is worth a look dropping back down in class and drawing inside. (6) CATCH AN ACE also drops but she seems more like a fringe player to me here. (2) MAKE MINE MOCHA has been racing well out of town and she should get a good trip here.