Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 10/18 Analysis

Meet Stats – 344 – 974 / $1,743.90 (-$152.20)
Best Bets – 59 - 93 / $173.50 (-$14.50)
Spot Plays – 29– 94 / $144.20 (- $43.80)
Best Bet – LYONS SENTINEL – (8TH)
Spot Play – MANHATTAN AGAIN – (12TH)
Pick 5 – 6/3,6/2,4,7,8/2,6/6,9 = $6.40
Early Pick 4 – 2,6/6,9/2,5/2,3,5,6 = $32
Late Pick 4 – 4,6/1,2/3,8,9/4,8 = $24
Race 1 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(6) HYPNOTIC AM brings a perfect record to the Breeders Crown and there’s no reason to think that record will get blemished here; top call. (4) SISTER SLEDGE has been good all year and she should be the main danger. (8) VIOLET STRIDE comes off a sharp win in Lexington and she could add some value to the exotics here. (2) SHISHITO gets white-hot Dunn in the bike and she could better this placing with a good trip.
Race 2 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS
(3) AMIGO VOLO was outstanding in Lexington and he will be tough here if he behaves himself. (6) CHESTNUT HILL has been rallying well in recent outings which should play to his advantage down the long Mohawk Park stretch; Exacta factor. (5) BACK OF THE NECK should be the early pacesetter and he can hang around for a share. (7) MOON BRIDGE was a determined winner here last Saturday despite racing uncovered a long way; consider using underneath.
Race 3 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(8) MS SAVANNAH BELLE is getting faster as the year goes on and she gets the call to upset the unbeaten (4) RAMONA HILL here, but I’ll use both in the Pick 5. (2) CRUCIAL has been third four times in a row. She could round out this Tri, too. (7) SHERRY LYNS LADY has been good all year and she should at least be in this Super.
Race 4 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES- **$50K GTD Pick 4 **
(2) PEAKY SNEAKY caught fire in Lexington and ripped off a very fast mile for these. She could be the “now” filly here. (6) REFLECT WITH ME figures to be right in the mix vs. these and she could be the filly to beat in this field. (1) BABY YOUR THE BEST hasn’t missed the board yet and she should be in the hunt here starting from the inside. (4) GAI WATERHOUSE is capable of better. Consider using her on deeper multi-race tickets.
Race 5 – F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(6) PRESCIENT BEAUTY had a decent comeback race, but she missed a check which allows her to take another dip in class. She could lead these on a merry chase. (9) CRISP MANE has been facing some tough sophomores and she’s worth a look in this spot. (7) WHISTYS PARADISE is capable of a good rally vs. these- enough to land in the Tri or Super. (8) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY raced better last time and she is another that should be rallying late.
Race 6 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(5) ALICORN has been outstanding racing on this track all summer and she should continue her winning ways here. (2) NEW YEAR comes in off a smart win in Lexington where she finished powerfully. She is the main danger. (4) SHOULDBEENATD finishes well every week and she can sneak into the Tri here. (7) LADY LOU is another one who should be coming on late that should be in Tri and Super tickets.
Race 7 – FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 or $50,000 LT
(6) UNDEFIABLE is developing a powerful closing kick and she’ll pass them all one of these times; maybe tonight? (3) JUST MY SHADOW beat non-winners of four two starts back so she should be a big player here in against non-winners of three. (2) DRESS TO THE NINES has shown enough talent in the past few weeks to compete with these and her most recent win was impressive; using. (5) BE BEST should be up front early and if the early pace is soft, she will likely better this placing.
Race 8 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(6) LYONS SENTINEL is the undisputed leader of this division right now and she should take this Crown elim at a very short price. (2) J K FIRST LADY has some placings behind the choice, and she should complete an Exacta that may pay less than even money. (1) SOMEBEACHSOMETIME comes off a nice win leading up to this and she can pass a few of these late to make the final. (3) MARLOE HANOVER has improving form and driver Dunn which should add up to a place in the Tri or Super.
Race 9 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS – Pick 4
(4) TALL DARK STRANGER and (6) PAPI ROB HANOVER renew their rivalry here. I’ll side with the unbeaten former, understanding that when his win streak gets broken, the latter is probably the one that will take him down. (7) FREEDOM WARRIOR seems to like bigger tracks. I’ll use him underneath along with stout closer (8) PUT TO RIGHT, who should be coming on late.
Race 10 – F&M NW $26,500 L5 or $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000
(1) DOUBLE A MINT is the class of this group and Roy should have her moving to the point early here; top call. (2) SO MUCH MORE has had an outstanding season beating sophomores and she could be up to facing elders here. (6) ROLL WITH SPARKY is sharp and stepping up off a loss she can add some value to the exotics here. (3) WITCH DALI is capable vs. these and she is another who could go off as an overlay in this spot.
Race 11 – F&M NW $11,500 L5 or $20,000 L10 or $86,500 LT AE: OPT CLM
(8) WINDSUN GLORY deserves top call here coming off a strong win vs. lesser. (3) P L HURRICANE runs hot and cold, but she comes off a narrow loss and she should be right there again vs. these. (9) HELLO LOVE tries hard every week and she is worth using even starting from out there. (2) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION should pass some of these and land in the Super.
Race 12 – F&M NW $6,500 L5 or $13,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $15,000
(8) MANHATTAN AGAIN raced too good to lose last time and she gets top call vs. these. (4) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP had little chance with the trip she got last time. She can rebound here. (6) REIS STAR CROSS drops and she’ll take action, but she is hard to love on top when you look at her 2019 record. (9) THIS DRAGON ROCKS should be closing for another slice here. (1) SUDDEN PASSING fits well here and she could crash the exotics at a price.