Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 10/12 Analysis
Best Bet: CROFT BAY N (11th)
Spot Play: WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,5,6/3,4/2,7,9/2,7,8/2,6,8 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,7,8/2,6,8/1,7,8/6,9 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 3,6,7/2,5/2,4,6/3,9 = $36
MEET STATS: 391 - 1200 / $2,208.90 BEST BETS: 65 - 106 / $223.70
SPOT PLAYS: 35 - 105 / $215.90
Race 1
Tough opener with a few chances. I'll side with (4) SHADOW WORLD, who was flying late last week. (5) SHARKS SUMMERSHADY tripped out perfectly to win, but a similar trip isn't impossible here; using. (6) DRY SILK FLOWERS needs a better setup, but she may get it here. (9) MALNIFICENT should be the early leader. She can hang around for a share.
Race 2
(3) BETTORS UP rates highly here following a good showing in the Milton, the only concern being the time off since. (4) WITCH DALI also missed some time, but this is a watered-down version of the top mares class, so she can still factor. (1) BAROCKEY steps up off a nice win, but a smaller share seems likely here. (5) EXHILARATED is another who will likely finish on the edges racing in this class.
Race 3
(9) WALK THE PLANK ships in off a solid win and this spot probably isn't any tougher; top call. (2) DOTTIE is in one of her best spots all year here, but she needs to stay flat to contend. (7) SETANTA is another infrequent winner who drops into a good spot here; using. (5) KEN KAN WIN is in good form and he may crack the exotics at a price.
Race 4
(2) CASIMIR RICHIE P has won a third of his starts so far in 2018 and he has a good chance to add to that total in this field. (7) JM JACK OF HEARTS tripped well to win last week, but he's capable of roughing it too; using. (8) TRUMP THAT will get overbet here coming off a sub-1:51 score. He's capable, but far from a cinch. (1) KINDER JACKSON can follow along and grab a slice.
Race 5
(2) HELLO LOVE powered her way to a new life's mark last week; call to repeat. (6) MACHNHOPE is better than she showed last week but she needs to be mindful of pace; using. (8) JAN has been facing some tough older mares recently and she merits inclusion racing at this level. (5) BEACH GODDESS can close late to make the Super ticket.
Race 6
(7) SHEWEARSTHEPANTS gets a slight nod in a race that looks wide-open. McNair should put her into action early. (1) DAZZLING ROCKETTE shoots for three straight and the barn has been doing well lately; using. (8) KIWI FOCUS N had pace in the lane last week and she could be dangerous racing from close range here. (5) TWENTY THREE RED is worth a look for the exotics moving back into the Moreau barn.
Race 7
(9) THE JOY LUCK CLUB has had a disappointing year so far, but she lands in a good spot here and she should take beating. (6) REQUEST FOR PAROLE steps up slightly off a big win for a hot barn; using. (1) P L HURRICANE can trip well from this post to at least hit the board. (5) AINT THREE OJ has some price potential for the exotics here.
Race 8
(3) DON MCWHITE gets away from Jins Shark here and he should improve sharply racing in this class. (7) MR MACH JIMMY's barn has been doing better lately; consider despite moving up. (6) CABLE BEACH A rallied well last week. He's not out of this. (1) MCDAVE rarely wins, but frequently shares; use underneath.
Race 9
(2) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE moves inside and she should be able to lay closer and pounce in the lane. (5) DON'T STOP BELIEVIN is on a good roll, but these are tougher. She will likely need to pace under 1:52 to win this. (3) ELLA CHRISTINA is worth a look on the class drop. She should be coming late here. (1) BUTTERMILK HANOVER is always around the money and she should share starting from the inside here.
Race 10
(4) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY got a bit of a lucky trip last week, but she motored late when she got room and she may be a good price again here; slight nod. (2) BLACK JACK PAT should get easier fractions to chase here so she should rebound with a better try. (6) SHES LIGHTS OUT paced a big mile in her October 4th qualifier over an off track. She could be ready for a top effort here. (3) ANDERSON SEELSTER should finish on the edges again.
Race 11
(3) CROFT BAY N was nailed only late by the even-money chalk and he gets to drop off that effort. He looks solid here. (9) BEACH HOUSE was a winner at huge odds from an outer post six starts back when racing one class higher. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (4) KAZIMOTO should make the ticket racing from close range. (1) DRUNKONAPLANE was too far back last time, but that was a good try and he can share here. (10) LYONS WILLIAM will be closing from way back and he could add some value to the exotics here.
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