Woodbine Mohawk Park: Friday 10/11 Analysis

Meet Stats – 327 – 930 / $1,657.90 (-$150.10)
Best Bets – 56 - 90 / $163.70 (-$16.30)
Spot Plays – 28– 90 / $137.70 (- $42.30)
Best Bet – LYONS PEGASUS (1st)
Spot Play – MONGOLIAN HERO (6th)
Pick 5 – 4/2,3,4,5/1,3/3,6/1,2,3 = $9.60
Early Pick 4 – 3,6/1,2,3/1,2,5/1,4 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 6/1,2,3/1,2,4,5/1,6,10 = $36
Race 1 – 4YO and Younger NW2 or $28,500LT - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(4) LYONS PEGASUS just looks too fast for these right now and I’ll land here for a Pick 5 single to kick off the card. (6) PHILS SUN has been in tough in his last few starts and while the choice looks hard to get past, this colt can beat the rest to complete the Exacta. (3) MARCUS SEELSTER made a sharp late move to win last week but he’s likely to finish underneath in this spot. (2) PRESTIGE SEELSTER has 0 wins but he has taken 10 slices in 18 starts; use underneath here.
Race 2 – F&M NW $10,600 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000
Tough race with several chances. I’ll side with (5) PRESCIENT BEAUTY who may have found the right spot to get off the schneid for 2019. (3) HELLO LOVE is a hard trier who will be in the mix at this level. (4) JUST HER LUCK won at this level in early August and she is another chance in a contentious race. (2) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE should get a decent trip from this post and if she gets in a live flow, she may pass them all late.
Race 3 – 3YO Fillies
(3) ONLY TAKE CASH is the obvious class of this field, but she has missed 4 weeks and the ultimate goal is likely the Breeders Crown, so tread lightly in the win pool at odds-on. (1) LEFKADA got pushed out down the lane last time which may have cost her a win. Driver Wray has been hot out of town the past week. I’ll toss her in this Pick 5 as a safety valve. (6) REBELLIOUS LADY is game and consistent and impossible to leave out of the Tri here. (5) CAMBRIDGE KATE can take a slice if she can stay flat this time.
Race 4 – F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000 LT - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(3) SOUTHWIND PRIMA took 21 starts to break her maiden but she has seemed to put it all together recently and she may come right back vs. these. (6) SOMEBEACHBYTHESEA’s race two starts back puts her right there vs. these; using. (4) WHITEHAVEN BEACH’s recent qualifier was sharp enough to suggest she can be a player vs. these. (9) LYONS GIRLHANOVER has closed well in her past two starts and she could crash the exotics at a price here.
Race 5 – NW4 or $46,000 LT
(3) OKEANOS came up with a big effort last week now he draws a better post. If he stays flat, he has a big shot to repeat here. (2) SWAN BEFORE ALL is in the hunt every week and he’s hard to leave out, but notice he has 10 slices vs. 2 wins this year in 18 starts. (1) MAGICAL WINNER K has improving form and he could win this if he times his move right. (10) SETTE DEO will be closing and she may sneak into the Super at a big price.
Race 6 – NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10
(5) MONGOLIAN HERO N looks primed to produce a sharp effort coming off the shelf for an outfit that sends them ready; top call. (2) CLASSIC PRO was excellent racing from an outer post last time, and he may be the one to beat here. (1) THOR DE VIE returns quicker this time and he should improve sharply in this spot. (4) BIT OF LUCK will be closing again but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.
Race 7 – Fillies and Mares 5YO and Younger NW3 or $50,000 LT
(4) FREYA SEELSTER has been facing some tough sophomore fillies and this looks like a better spot for her; slight nod in a tough race. (1) AMBERS SHADOW was used up early last time now she moves inside and gets a notable driver switch back to Filion; using. (6) CLEARLY BETTER is in solid form and leaving from a good post she should contend for a share. (3) UNDEFIABLE’s quick kickers put her in the conversation for the exotics here.
Race 8 – 2YO Fillies NW2 or $30,000 LT
(6) SOMEBEACHSOMETIME raced admirably in Grand Circuit competition and she should be formidable at a short price here. (1) KEYSTONE KALIMBA has been showing rapid improvement late in the summer and she figures to be the main threat here. (2) WANNASHAKEYOURTREE gets major post relief here after being on the outside of the gate for several weeks; consider for the exotics. (7) PERFECT STORM has had a nice start to her career and while this is a much tougher spot, she could come on late and sneak into the Super.
Race 9 – F&M NW $6,000 L5 or $16,600 L10 AE: OPT CLM $15,000
(2) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP came up just short last time now she adds Lasix and she gets my nod here. (3) OUR VACATION fits well in this class and she could get more aggressive in this spot; using. (1) MANHATTAN AGAIN hinted at producing a top effort with her good try vs. tougher last week. I’ll use her in this Pick 4. (5) THIS DRAGON ROCKS is worth a look coming off the shelf with a good qualifying effort in tow.
Race 10 – F&M NW $3,200 L5 or $7,000 L10
(4) SOS BAMBIE is showing signs of improvement racing out of the Auciello barn and I’ll take a swing with her in a wide-open race. (1) KAYS SHADOW raced okay coming off a break and McClure sticks for a return drive. She is capable at this level. (5) ANALYZE has the look of one that Roy can light up leaving the gate and if he clears to the front with her, she could go a long way on the engine. (2) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY has had her share of issues but she can contend here if she is reasonably sound.
Race 11 – F&M NW $15,000 L5 or $21,500 L9 or NW $110,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000
(1) BETTER BE DONNA N drops and moves inside. I expect Drury to make a move to the front on the backside here and control this race. (10) ROLL WITH SPARKY was a sharp winner in this class two starts back and she should contend here despite her post. (6) SO LONG DARLING beat a good field for the NW $10K L5 class Last week and she should contend here despite stepping up in class; using. (7) LYONS HEDGEABET should come on late to find her way into the Super. (2) LIT DE ROSE is another in solid form who should be considered for use in the exotics.