Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 9/3

Top Pick Stats: 473 - 1373 / $2,562.60 (-$183.400)

Best Bets: 67 - 128 / $213.80 (-$42.20)

Spot Plays: 30 - 125 / $283.20 (+$33.20)

Best Bet: PEMBERTON (9TH)

Spot Play: IMA PAPI HANOVER (5TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,5,9/1,3,8/2,4,6/1,9/8 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 1,6/2,5/2,3,4,8/3/3,4 = $6.40

Early Pick 4: 1,9/8/1,6/2,5 = $1.60

Late Pick 4: 2,3,4,8/3/3,4/4,7 = $3.20

Race 1: 2YO fillies NW1 or $8,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) POPPY POWER’s lone qualifier wasn’t particularly fast, but she made a big third 1/4 move then crushed her rivals, suggesting she has speed and talent. She adds Lasix for this debut, and I’ll take a stab with her to kick off the Pick 5. (2) DUCHESS DEO was right there against maidens in her first two starts then tried much tougher in Kentucky. She should improve sharply tonight back in with maidens; using. (9) TWIN B FLAME comes off two strong efforts in defeat at this level. She’s another candidate to kick off the Pick 5 despite drawing widest. (8) LAURAS CRUSH has been right there in each of her last three starts and she should be in the mix here likely racing close to the front throughout.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 4. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS

(8) HAY DAD has the fastest mark in this race, taken three starts back when he was driven aggressively in a Grassroots race. I think McClure sends him tonight and that makes him the one to beat. (3) P L SPENCER has some obvious risk with his breaking issues, but he was very good in the one race where he behaved,1 and he will be a threat here if he stays flat. (1) WENDELL BLUE CHIP is 2 for 3 at the Grassroots level and his most recent line caused by an equipment break is a toss. McNair will put him into the race at some point and he should be a threat. (4) CENTURY LEGION gets a trainer change tonight. He can take a share.

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Race 3: 5YO and younger NW3 (F&M4) or $50,000 LT

(4) NORTHERN LOOKER comes off a good 2nd in a Gold race to a rival that was unbeaten at the time, and he can beat these if he gets put into the race. (6) CRYSTAL BALLER showed some late zip last time and he is worth a price look here. (2) MUSICAL RIDE fits well here, and he will likely get sent forward leaving the gate. He projects to get a good trip and he is another in with a shot. (7) CACTUSTOTHECLOUDS will likely be closing from the back again and I prefer to use him underneath.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 4. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(9) ARMSTEAD FIREBALL just finished 2nd behind a very nice filly in a good effort and he should be a big threat to lead all the way tonight; top call. (1) GASLIGHT HALL rallied well and fell just short of catching a loose leader. He should be the main threat. (6) STMIKES KERRYBLUES is likely to show speed again starting from the best post and he can stick around for a slice. (4) SEEME ZOOM raced okay last Thursday and he should be part of the exotics here.

Race 5: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $8,000 LT

(8) IMA PAPI HANOVER took a last turn shuffle then had to stickhandle through traffic in the land while trying to run in. Once he got clear he motored late. I’ll give him the nod here. (5) FUN KING was racing against some decent colts in NYSS action, and he appears to fit well here; using. (3) JOHNNY LAW is 1 for 1 for trainer Brethour who always merits a look in these cases. (1) GLOWING LOU was no good at 1 to 5 when he shipped here on 8/23 but Doc Moore wheels him right back. He should be better, but I wouldn’t take a short price.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 4. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 5

This looks like the type of race where a driver will make a middle move and open up an insurmountable lead and (1) TENCARATGOLD can be the one if he stays flat; price play. (6) GETTHEGREEN placed in a Gold race on debut so he is likely good enough to beat these, but I wonder if he might get too far back. I am inclined to try to beat him as the likely favorite in this spot. Macdonald sticks with (2) STONEBRIDGE PRAISE and he can take a slice here if he stays flat. (4) NORTHERN DRIFTER is another with gait issues that will be in the mix if he trots for the whole mile.

Race 7: F&M 4YO and younger NW1 or $8,500 LT

(5) ROSE COLORDGLASSES took a lot of money on debut, and she rallied from a tough spot to win with her trainer in the bike. She gets McNair now and she gets the nod to repeat. (2) RAFFLE WINNER drops, and she has come close at this maiden level previously. She should be the main threat here. (4) ACEFORTYFOUR BELLA is only 1 for 17 but she was a winner last time she raced in a class similar to tonight’s. I prefer to use her underneath the top two, however. (1) BIG NIPPER comes off one of her better efforts and she can take a share here.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 4. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(3) THE BEAR A CUDA was heading for the front leaving the gate last week when he made what looked like a speed break. He gets Macdonald back now and I’ll take a stab with him at a price. (8) MUSCLE SPASM comes in off a good debut and gets a switch to catch-driver McClure for this initial Grassroots start. He is another that should offer a good price that is worth using on late multi-race tickets. (4) COUSIN HALIFAX comes in off a maiden score in which he took the fastest mark of any in this field, and he is an obvious threat here. (2) DAY has had gait issues recently, but he is fast enough for these if he behaves. Adding Lasix tonight, he is another contender.

Race 9: NW $28,000 L5 or $36,250 L8

(3) PEMBERTON just jogged last week and when he is at the top of his game there aren’t many on this circuit that can beat him; call to repeat. (5) SOUTHWIND COORS is the obvious threat dropping out of Grand Circuit races. Last time he raced in a conditioned event three starts back, he crushed easier. (2) H P MAMA B rounded back to her best form last week and she will likely be the first leader here and stick around for a share. (1) DISTANCE LEARNING will probably sit back and make a late charge again to land in the Tri or Super.

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Race 10: F&M Claiming $20,000 for NW $30,000 LT

(3) ALWAYS A CATCH was nailed right on the wire by a perfectly pocketed rival that isn’t in the field tonight and she is strictly the one to beat here. (4) BETTOR DEAL ships in off a couple of decent Grand River efforts and she could add some value to the Exacta here. (2) KANT KATCH KENZIE typically leaves hard for position, and she should be part of the Tri here. I don’t love the rail post for (1) SAULSBROOK ANNIE in this spot; using on the bottom.

Race 11: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: PROSPECT SERIES STARTERS IN 2024 NW $40,000 LIFETIME. AE: 3 YO NW $15,000 IN 2024

(4) ONYX BOVINO passed some horses while the leader was sprinting away from the field last week and he, like others in here, will be happy to not see Lamborghini Lou in this field; top call. (7) LARJON LEVI is on a nice roll right now and he has taken four wins in a row deploying a variety of styles. He should be right there again. (1) JMR SPEAK AWAY finished ahead of the choice last week, but he had a much better trip. I’ll use him underneath here. (9) ROCKET FREIGHT gets off the rail here and he is capable of better than he showed last week. He can get a share here. (8) MAX PATRICK figures to finish on the edges again in this spot.