Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 9/20
Meet Stats: 501 - 1586 / $2,633.30 (-$534.70)
Best Bets: 80 - 145 / $271.90 (-$18.50)
Spot Plays: 38 - 146 / $262.50 (-$29.50)
Best Bet: FEAR THE CRUSH (8TH)
Spot Play: NIGHT SHADOW (4TH)
Early Pick 5: 4,7,8/9/3,4/1,3,4,6/1,3 = $9.60
Late Pick 5: 2,4,5/2,6,7/1/1/2,4,7,9 = $7.20
Early Pick 4: 1,3,4,6/3/2,4,5/2,6,7 = $36
Late Pick 4: 2,6,7/1/1/2,4,7,9 = $12
Race 1: 2YO NW1 or $5,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**
(8) CARDIO MUSCLE was good in defeat here last week and he should be the one to catch and beat tonight; top call. Debutant (7) HEARTBREAK BEAT picked up the leading driver at scratch time and he qualified well enough to suggest that he can contend at first asking; using. (4) USEYOURLOVETONIGHT took a check in the NYSS final and he showed a good late kick two starts back on this track. Starting from a good post, he is in with a chance tonight. (5) HE WILL brings good form in from the 'B' tracks and his good early speed should get him position near the front. He can stick around for a slice.
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Race 2: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW1 or $5,000
(9) BACK POCKET MIKI was a good 2nd to a strong winner last week and he gets top call here despite drawing widest. (8) SCRIBBLERS improved sharply last time and he can challenge the choice if he gets put into the race earlier; using. (4) BOOM TOWN BOY was a couple of lengths behind the choice after sitting a following trip most of the way. He can be an Exacta factor tonight. (3) TALK RACY TO ME is showing improved late speed in recent starts; price look for the exotics.
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Race 3: NW $3,400 L5 or $8,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $9K or less L3
(4) TREASURED TEE drops and likely pops here. I imagine McNair will look to take no prisoners with him from the outset. (3) FRANKS ANGEL is razor-sharp and the logical alternative to the choice but I don't see him being favored as the morning line suggests. (2) MR CONTESTANT raced okay on the drop last week and he will probably sit another trip close to the front and take a share. (7) HAWAII adds Lasix and she probably sits and rallies late for a share.
Race 4: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT - Pick 4
(4) NIGHT SHADOW is improving and he will likely be started up earlier by Young today; top call. (1) LOVE IS ALIVE is an obvious threat having just missed last time. He's hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (6) RAISING SAND led to the 3/4 as the chalk last time and this isn't a tough field. He might forget to stop in this spot. (3) BETTER SUNSET could get overbet here with the leading driver in the bike. I prefer to use him underneath.
Race 5: 2YO Fillies NW 1 or $5,000
(3) LYONS BETTORDAY almost won a Gold last time now she faces maidens. She will be the one to beat as the likely chalk here. (1) RUTHY B is a full-sister to Jimmy Connor B who was very fast at two and paced a 25 3/5 kicker in his debut, and 1:49 2/5 pacer Dreamfair B J. She rates a long look on debut for Team McNair. (7) REGIL IRISH couldn’t seal the deal at 2 to 5 last week so I don't see her beating the choice here but she is in the exotics mix. (6) DOWNBYTHEBANKS is likely to wake up here for Team Takter dropping out of Grand Circuit company and she is in the exotics mix.
Race 6: 2YO NW1 or $5,000 - Pick 5
(4) ENJOY TROTTING makes his first start for new owner/trainer Gillis following a private sale and he trotted faster than ever before in his September 13th qualifier. I like him in this spot. (5) FATHER DANIELS is a full-brother to three-year-old Take Command who has compiled a 2-2-2 record from 8 starts. He seems to fit okay here and he is worth a look for multi-race tickets. (2) PRETTY SPECIAL was close at this level two starts back and she can be dangerous here if she stays flat. (3) FRENCHY HANOVER will probably be part of the Tri or Super if she stays trotting this time.
Race 7: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW1 or $5,000 - Pick 4
(2) PEPPER JACK FLASH showed some late zip in a fast mile in his debut and I'll give him a slight nod here expecting a more aggressive try. (6) HES SURE GOOD already has a win at this level and he figures to be a major player here, likely racing on or near the lead; using. (7) ALL ATTITUDE’S race at this level three starts back puts him right there with these and he is another that should be aggressive in this spot. He'll be on my late multi-race tickets. (1) MATTS GEM is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics on debut.
Race 8: 2YO Fillies NW 2 or $15,000 LT
(1) FEAR THE CRUSH will likely live up to her name in this spot where she is clearly fastest. She will be a multi-race single for me. (4) TALK CURDY to me looked good winning on debut and she is in the mix again but she will need to be faster to beat the choice. (3) DEWITT THIS MOMENT flew late to win last week but these are tougher and I think she takes a slice here. (5) BECA MITCHELL drops out of Gold and adds Lasix and she should improve enough to take a share.
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Race 9: NW $3,400 L5 or $8,000 L10
(1) P L OPPORTUNITY takes a pretty big drop here and she should handle this group. (3) MIDNIGHT MIRACLE was overtaken late by a rival that produced a big rally and she is in the mix here. (6) TEXACO MAN gets needed post relief here and he should be close enough early to be able to rally for a share. (2) WARRAWEE WHISPER should rally past some of these to land in the Tri or Super.
Race 10: NW $2,150 L3 AE: OPT CLM $15,000
(9) SO NOT COOL moves into the Fellows barn here coming off a break and he showed speed in his qualifier which makes me think he is blasting here; top call. (7) SOMBRE is a good fit at this level and he should get a good trip racing near the front; using. (4) ITSTIMETOGOHOME showed nice late speed last time and Macdonald keeps the drive. He would be no surprise in this spot. (2) SWAN BY LAND is a shipper that stacks up well in this bottom conditioned class and he is another in with a shot. (1) PRINCESSPARTYPANTS should be able to beat a few of these and land in the Super or High-5.