Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 9/1

Meet Stats: 184 - 593 / $1035.60 (-$150.40)
Best Bets: 28 - 53 / $87.40 (-$18.60)
Spot Plays: 11 - 55 / $85.30 (-$24.70)
Best Bet: SONADORO DEO (10TH)
Spot Play: MUSICAL RHYTHM (9TH)
Early Pick 5: 4,9/1,2,4/1,2,6,9/5,7,9/6,9 = $28.80
Late Pick 5: 3,4/1,3,7/3,7,8/8/5 = $3.60
Early Pick 4: 5,7,9/6,9/3,4/1,3,7 = $36
Late Pick 4: 3,7,8/8/5/1,3 = $6

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**
(4) PROFOUND PARAGON has been dominant racing over smaller ovals and if she trots even faster on the big track her rivals will be racing for second here. (9) PROTOSTAR looked like a winner in mid-stretch only to be picked off right at the wire. She can contend here despite drawing widest. (5) NO ANGEL HERE exits a fast race where she produced sharp late speed and she should be part of this Tri. (3) ROCKADERO's race two start back makes her a contender for a share here if she can stay flat this time.

Race 2: NW $12,000 L5 or $31,000 L10 or NW $9,000 L4 AE: NW $100,000 LT

(1) REFI faces easier here and I expect a more aggressive drive in this spot; top call. (2) VILLEFRANCHE AS is a win machine but she faces tougher here and I wouldn't take a short price. (4) CUE HALL finished just ahead of the choice last time and he is in the mix especially with Gingras taking over the driver duties. (3) KAMERAN HANOVER should be closing for a slice again.

Race 3: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000

I don't often land on horses that are winless in 56 straight starts, but (1) SIZE ME UP has shown improvement in four starts out of the Auciello barn and he could trip out here in a race where some of the main contenders drew poorly; call to upset. (9) E L WILD SPIRIT has overcome this post in the past and he is too sharp to overlook here; using. (6) BROOKLETSJUSTIFIED couldn't seal the deal last week when dropped to this level but he did press a rapid pace to the 3/4 before tiring. He is another possibility here. (2) EMPTYTHETILL was a winner here two starts back then he was beaten at Georgian Downs. Perhaps he prefers the big track.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(7) YEN took the fastest mark in the field the last time she raced at Mohawk Park and she gets Henry to drive here; top call. (5) TH PRESENT gets her nose back on the gate and McClure back for this start and she has upset potential. (9) MOANA is right there every week it seems, and she shows a strong win from post 9 at this track so she is hard to toss. (2) JULA SHES MAGIC is capable at this level but considering her recent gait issues I’d need a big price.

Race 5: 2YO NW $12,000 LT

(6) BRILLIANT CORNERS paced a 27 3/5 third 1/4 in his August 25th qualifier which indicates he is recovered from his sickness and he gets top billing here. (9) HEZ MY BUDDY paced two strong miles here in mid-August and he has upset potential here. (8) ROBBIE RULE MAKER got hung out in a wild opening 1/2 at Hiawatha Horse Park. That race is a toss and he is another who can hit the ticket at a price. (10) KODIAK SEELSTER comes off a win and switches drivers from the trainer to McNair, a scenario that has already produced a winner at this meet. Tab the tote for clues with this one.

Race 6: 4YO and Younger NW 2 (F&M 3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) - Pick 5

(4) ANGEL NATION dominated a few of these here in his last start and if he stays flat, he should prove tough to beat. (3) NO TIME TO PLAY has improving form for a top barn and I'll use him in this Pick 4. (8) VICTOR INVICTUS made a couple of moves when second to the choice and he should be in the mix again. (10) PERPETUATE can improve going back to a stalking/closing style but it's hard to see him getting a decent start leaving behind the #1 or #2.

Race 7: CLAIMING $8,000

(7) ON CRUISE CONTROL was claimed by a barn that had him three starts back and he immediately drops $2K in claiming price. Assuming he gets claimed, simple math tells you he needs to win for the new connections to show a $2K profit. (3) BUTE COURAGE N also drops, and he could be sitting in the choice's pocket at the head of the lane. That makes him dangerous. (1) MYBROTHERGEORGE is another dropper that merits a look in a tough race. (2) WINDSONG GRAYSON looks like one that can leave in the top five and sit a trip then sneak into the Super.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(3) CHELSEAS MAGIC had a good tightener for this Grassroots race and she may be able to boss this group. (8) PEPPAS ANGEL does her bets work in Grassroots races and she should be the choice's main foe. (7) TITANIC KATE comes off a good try where she was beaten by an improving four-year-old mare and she is certainly worth considering here. (9) OH LINA has improving form but from out there I'll use her underneath.

Race 9: NW $20,000 L5 or $35,000 L10 or NW $130,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $50,000

(8) MUSICAL RHYTHM should get sent forward leaving the gate to get position on a field that he beats if he brings anything close to his best. (2) IM THE MUSCLE strikes me as one that will sit covered up then produce a late kick to hit the board at a price. (1) DONT LETEM is loaded with class but he is also a hard horse to drive and he gets the worst post at this track for a trotter with gait issues and is handled by a driver with only 160 lifetime starts. Demand a price if you like him. (3) PIKACHU HANOVER is capable of hitting the board here if he is sharp enough following a break.

Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES

(5) SONADORO DEO produced a big effort to be narrowly defeated by an older rival last week and she is hard to go past here. (4) MAGIC WANDA passed them all last time and she races best for McClure who sticks here; Exacta factor. (1) SHE MUST BE MAGIC is worth a look on the driver change to Gingras. (7) BRINYS A FLIRT should be there early, but I see her taking only a small share again.

Race 11: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES

(1) PIER HO KADO is in career-best form right now and she's the one to beat here. (3) HIGHLAND FOXYTROTR couldn't seal the deal last week but she could be dangerous here if she gets covered up most of the way. (5) MYBELLA ANGEL should go better here leaving from the middle of the gate; using underneath. (4) ALEXA BLUE CHIP gets an interesting barn change, but she is capable of landing in the top five. (7) WARRAWEE VULCAN is another bomb worth a look with Macdonald taking over the driving duties.