Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 8/16

Meet Stats: 443 - 1368 / $2,320.80 (-$415.20)

Best Bets: 71 - 126 / $246.20 (-$5.80)

Spot Plays: 34 - 126 / $244.70 (-$7.30)

Best Bet: NOTORIOUS HANOVER (3RD)

Spot Play: ARRAKIS (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 3,4,5/2,3,4/2,5/2,6/5,6,7 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 3,7/1,4,8/2,5/1,5,8/3,6,7 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 2,6/5,6,7/3,7/1,4,8 = $36

Late Pick 4: 1,4,8/2,5/1,5,8/3,6,7 = $54

Race 1: 2YO Fillies NW $5,300 LT **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

$110,000 Harrisburg purchase (3) FRONT PAGE STORY finds a good spot for her debut and the good late speed she flashed in both qualifiers should have her primed for a winning debut effort; top call. (5) REGGAE HANOVER likely needed a race when she was far back after starting from a wide post in a stakes series. She can improve sharply here. (4) OCCASIONALLY SHARP flashed nice late speed in her debut and she will be closer by default this time racing in a 7-horse field; price look. (2) MOONSTRUCK goes for the potent Millar Farms/Gallucci/Macdonald combo which is typically very dangerous in these spots but I prefer to use her underneath on debut here.

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Race 2: 2YO NW $6,000 LT

(3) BESHEAR produced sharp late speed in both qualifiers and driver Jones continues to impress in limited drives on this circuit. I'll give this debuting son of first crop sire Tactical Landing the nod in a race with a few options. (4) C S GOLDPOLICY improved in his second qualifier now he gets the leading driver in the bike. He should be the main threat to the choice. (2) NORTHERN CLASSIC gets the "first time McNair" angle here and he is worth using in the Pick 5. (5) THUNDEROUSLY dropped close to four seconds in his second qualifier and he looks like a threat but he is hard to use on top with Toscani driving.

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Race 3: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW $5,000 LT

(2) NOTORIOUS HANOVER, a $110,000 Harrisburg buy, is the fifth foal of a dam that has produced four winners to date including The Wall (37 wins, $655K, 1:50 F). This doesn't look like a tough spot to debut and she gets top billing. (5) GILLIGANS HOOLIGAN paced a 55-flat back 1/2 on debut and he should improve with that experience under his belt. (7) ON THE REGULAR should pass a few of these and take a slice. (6) HES SURE GOOD goes for Doc Moore off a blowout Truro win but I'm not sure he beat much considering he was 5 cents on the dollar. I'll use him underneath.

Race 4: NW $5,600 L5 or $12,000 L10 AE NW1 in 2021/22 - Pick 4

(6) MACHO MARTINI has rounded into form and he is going to blitz one of these lower conditioned fields soon. That might come right here. (2) RITSON drops and gets Macdonald tonight. He should get put into play at this level; using. (8) PEMBERTON beats these by a pole on his best day, but he is hard to trust at this point and I’m not sure a trainer change is the answer. (3) FREE WILLY HANOVER should be in the exotics mix again here. I'll use him underneath.

Race 5: 4YO NW1 or $7,000 (F&M $10,000) LT

(5) MASSIAH had little chance last week the way pace and trip worked out. Macdonald takes the return drive and he should be more aggressive with her in this spot; top call. (6) HOLY BEING finished behind the choice but he fired a fast final 1/4 in that race. He should be a threat tonight. (7) THE BLACK ACE's effort two starts back makes him a contender if he can stay flat tonight; using. I'm not sure what makes (4) EPIC THRILL a 5 to 2 morning line choice in here. I will play to beat him.

Race 6: CLM HDCP $15,000 to $20,000 - Pick 5

(7) MISTER J R raced terrific off the claim last week, setting fast splits and holding off the closers. He gets the call to repeat here. (3) BARN ONE comes off a strong winning effort in Sarnia when parked all the way. He should be the main threat picking up McNair tonight. (5) CHOREOGRAPHER qualified well for this, but is it a tell that McClure isn't in the bike? I'd demand a price. (2) UF BETTORS HANOVER will likely sit back and rally here. Give him a look for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 7: 2YO NW $6,000 LT - Pick 4

(1) SISTER ACT faces easier, adds Lasix, and gets a driver switch to Macdonald tonight. This looks like a good spot for her to break her maiden. (8) I GOT THE TAB's race two starts back is probably good enough to win this and the wide post is likely okay for him. He is the other one that I'll use on late multi-race tickets. $35,000 Harrisburg buy (4) MAGIC HUSH qualified well for this and he is another possibility in a race with a few options. (2) JUST MONI comes in off a blowout win at Grand River but she faces tougher. I'll use her underneath.

Race 8: 3YO Fillies NW $5,300 LT

(2) BUTTERCUP HANOVER, 1/2-sister to Bulldog Hanover, appears to be coming around quickly and I'll give her the nod to graduate vs. these tonight. (5) FREESTARFLIGHT, a $27,000 Lexington buy, is a 1/2 to Free As Can Be, who was a narrow loser on debut and a 1:52 3/5 winner second time out. I could see her firing at first asking. (4) DANCE NUMBER raced well in defeat last time. She will likely be the one to catch again. Homebred (1) LADY GET LUCKY is the first foal of a good local dam that earned $467K in her career. She can contend for a share at first asking.

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Race 9: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $30,000 (F&M $40,000) LT

(5) ILLUSIONAL gets a much better post tonight and he gets back to a 7-day rotation. I'll give him a slight nod in a tough race. (1) MAPLE LEAF BOUND was right there vs. NW3 at Georgian now he gets the leading driver. The 15 to 1 morning line quote for this one seems high, doesn't it? (8) LUCAS NL will for sure get put into this race leaving the gate and that makes him a threat. (2) STORMONT MABEL is a complete guess in here because her best is good enough to beat these but her main goal as the season progresses has to be the Grassroots semi-final and championship. I'll play against her tonight.

Race 10: NW $10,000 L5 or $20,000 L8 or NW6 LT AE: Starters for a purse of $16K or less in 1 of L4

(3) ARRAKIS is always in the mix when McClure drives and he returns to the bike tonight. Call to upset in a wide-open finale. (6) WARRAWEE WHISPER got a needed clean line now he gets the leading driver and he faces slightly easier. He should get put into play tonight. (7) COOL MUSCLE is razor-sharp and while he faces tougher tonight, he could be up to it. He is another option for late Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. (1) MUSCLE FASHION’s effort two starts back stamps him as a contender here, but I don’t love the rail post for him because he will be under the gun early. I'll use him underneath. (4) KAMERAN HANOVER tripped out to beat easier. He will likely close late for a slice tonight.